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Pattern Failboat February

Rain Cold said:
We're going to be model watching for a other month. It feels like it's been a long time since we've had a winter with so much potential. I know the rubber has to meet the road, but it's nice knowing that any model run at any point could show something interesting. Certainly beats the boring winters we've had of late.

And it's nice that these things are showing up on main models too. Keeps us from having to unearth the KMA, the Brazilian, and so on.
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Bro you've been on the late Feb/March train for a while. May I ask why so confident? The blocking and -AO looks great into early next week, but it disappears quick. MJO 8-2 looks like it's in the cards, but not sure I'm that confident in a storm staying to our south after next week. Of course much can change but, wondering why so confident....and you don't have snow shield up, and pattern loading....etc. Is it Morganton?? :D

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Rain Cold said:
We're going to be model watching for a other month. It feels like it's been a long time since we've had a winter with so much potential. I know the rubber has to meet the road, but it's nice knowing that any model run at any point could show something interesting. Certainly beats the boring winters we've had of late.

And it's nice that these things are showing up on main models too. Keeps us from having to unearth the KMA, the Brazilian, and so on.
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Idk man, I saw the pangu and the mogreps, and the Canadian / icon aren’t major models imo. Only euro , and I guess gfs
 
SnowNiner said:
Bro you've been on the late Feb/March train for a while. May I ask why so confident? The blocking and -AO looks great into early next week, but it disappears quick. MJO 8-2 looks like it's in the cards, but not sure I'm that confident in a storm staying to our south after next week. Of course much can change but, wondering why so confident....and you don't have snow shield up, and pattern loading....etc. Is it Morganton?? :D

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@RBR71 asked me to take the snow shields down last year. I'm a team player, so....they gone.

Re: the pattern, I think we're set up nicely this year with the convergence of several factors: The MJO working through the cold phases instead of spending all winter on the warm side is huge for us. The timing of the strat warm/split is good. We've wanted to block things up in the north this year. And generally, winter just wants to be cold. The Ensembles look good in the LR as well. All that adds up to the fact that t's time to buy some Red Bull.

The GEFS (and the EPS from last night showed this too) has a pretty good pattern at the end of the run. Big ridge out west with blocking, trough in the east, and an active STJ. I'll take that all day long. Plus, we're going to be tracking threats prior to that image.

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The train is rolling down the tracks. It's time to get onboard.

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I'm cautiously optimistic we move in to the middle of Feb. I told a weather buddy a couple days ago keep your eye on the 20th and also 24th. We certainly have a few things going for us, MJO is buried in Ph 8, 50/50, some of the coldest air in the NH in terms of anomaly nearby, just comes down to what energy is in play and who's it playing with. That's impossible to ascertain 7-10 days out, just that the window is open for a system or two along the EC. It's been a minute since we have had a true Miller A.
 
WeatherNC said:
I'm cautiously optimistic we move in to the middle of Feb. I told a weather buddy a couple days ago keep your eye on the 20th and also 24th. We certainly have a few things going for us, MJO is buried in Ph 8, 50/50, some of the coldest air in the NH in terms of anomaly nearby, just comes down to what energy is in play and who's it playing with. That's impossible to ascertain 7-10 days out, just that the window is open for a system or two along the EC. It's been a minute since we have had a true Miller A.
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100%. I think not only is the window open wider than normal for a storm, it's open wider than normal for a big and memorable storm.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Am I crazy or is the GFS really early with the system next week ? Like outlier type early
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It’s earlier. But I really don’t like that first wave regardless. I just think we need another wave to kick in after the cold air flows through. I just don’t see this working out for a lot of people if it’s a cold ride in with moisture set up. Just my take.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m really sweating this drive up to Avery county next Thursday afternoon. Part of me hopes it’s a mauler above 4k feet but I really can’t do y’all like that
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I'm supposed to drive to Gatlinburg Friday, but not sure if I'm in a rainstorm or snowstorm yet. If it's snow, and hits before Friday in the piedmont I'll probably just stay home. I don't think Gatlinburg give me any advantage here, it's not very high in elevation. Maybe better on the CAD side.
 
I love how we lost the GEFS but gained the EPS/GDPS. Just wild. I’m cautiously optimistic but may have to take some more time away because I’m not sure I can be burned by a D8-10 threat yet again. It hurts too much…

4” here on the EPS mean at this timeframe is wild, though. Not something you hardly ever see.
 
Rain Cold said:
100%. I think not only is the window open wider than normal for a storm, it's open wider than normal for a big and memorable storm.
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I agree with this given the pattern produced a foot of snow along the Gulf of America. At the moment, I am seeing a nasty pattern favoring Charlotte to Raleigh with widespread power outages. This may be a real chance of heavy heavy icing not seen in several years. Will be some snow but likely north-west of that line for the lions share.
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm supposed to drive to Gatlinburg Friday, but not sure if I'm in a rainstorm or snowstorm yet. If it's snow, and hits before Friday in the piedmont I'll probably just stay home. I don't think Gatlinburg give me any advantage here, it's not very high in elevation. Maybe better on the CAD side.
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I was planning to drive up to VA on Friday.. may need to push that to Wednesday at this point. Or just stay home..


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GEFS is 18 hours faster than EPS…it’s probably wrong…well unless we get a repeat of last nights run

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