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Pattern Failboat February

rburrel2 said:
Just to recap 12z runs:

Hammer jobs:
Icon: Major hit for many, another wave possibly coming post hr180.
CMC: Nuclear bomb for many.
Ukmet: Have to extrapolate post hr 168, but looks like a major hit incoming for most.

Misses:
GFS: Almost a complete whiff, some ice for Northern NC.
GEFS: Pretty ugly
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Just a guess but I think the euro shows a hammer job for someone


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KyloG said:
UK would be more like GFS than CMC

View attachment 168491
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Just my two cents, but I don't see it that way. Ukmet hasn't pinched off a low over Minnesota which is the killer on the GFS. Mogreps should give a good indication of how it was going here in a bit.

Edit to add:

It's definitely gonna be warmer/ further north than the CMC. But just look at the starting point for 850s with the ukmet compared to the GFS at hr 168. Also the 850 temps/boundary is still pushing south from hr 162 to 168 on the ukmet.

Screen Shot 2025-02-12 at 12.45.16 PM.png
Screen Shot 2025-02-12 at 12.45.42 PM.png
 
59945db31e8f36152d20579a0292d02f.png

Just FYI!!


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rburrel2 said:
Just my two cents, but I don't see it that way. Ukmet hasn't pinched off a low over Minnesota which is the killer on the GFS. Mogreps should give a good indication of how it was going here in a bit.

Edit to add:

It's definitely gonna be warmer/ further north than the CMC. But just look at the starting point for 850s with the ukmet compared to the GFS at hr 168. Also the 850 temps/boundary is still pushing south from hr 162 to 168 on the ukmet.

View attachment 168497
View attachment 168495
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We don’t want it phasing over Vegas, heights rising in the east. This isn’t a setup for a low tracking below us.

It’s one model run so whatever. It’s day 8.

IMG_2986.jpeg
 
Brandon10 said:
Gut tells me that 850s are too warm for anyone south of I40 in the Carolinas. Now if that airmass was as cold as January, it would be different.
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The cold air source with high pressure building in is actually quite nice (coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere), but the challenge is getting the wave interaction and timing right to keep a storm from climbing too far north. 8 days out and things could continue to improve

B17FAE0B-5CC7-4360-9405-FA756E6AEEE0.png
 
NCWeatherhound said:
The CMC was a heartbreaker for our neck of the woods last time. But this NC cutoff takes the cake!
One inch for FAY, 20 inches for Lillington, two feet in Angier and 30 inches toward Fuquay-Varina? View attachment 168518
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Use Kuchera and reduce your pain by ~50%. Or use a real model + Kuchera and reduce it even more.
gem-all-nc-total_snow_kuchera-0204000.png
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
d2f345d5b45d59e9617f6989f95e494f.png

What was it people were saying that the CPC is almost always right about there predictions of where storms are most likely going to end up . I only say this because yesterday it looked completely different than today.


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Yeah I said that after they had I-20 folks getting smoked but I watched the ocean get it. They are forever dead to me, as well as the CMC. I think we all get another shot but I’m a lot like 1300m these days, I’ll get excited if we get it within 12 hours though 😂
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
This is puzzling to me. Surface temps on the cmc were in the low to mid 20s
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This model is so broken it's scary. I feel like a complete moron for entertaining it earlier this year. In 6 hours it outputs over 1.5" of precipitation and the model soundings on Pivotal suggest freezing rain/drizzle with the sounding not even fully saturated. There's so many suspect things in that one sentence I lost count.
gdps_2025021212_204_35.4--78.9.png

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Tsappfrog20 said:
d2f345d5b45d59e9617f6989f95e494f.png

What was it people were saying that the CPC is almost always right about there predictions of where storms are most likely going to end up . I only say this because yesterday it looked completely different than today.


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CPC says we get cold smoked, let's RAGE!! lol.

I'm a weenie, I like being inside that circle. Completely unbiasedly (heh), I think that is the overall potential affected area based on recent ops and ensembles. I deem it accurate.
 
We're going to be model watching for a other month. It feels like it's been a long time since we've had a winter with so much potential. I know the rubber has to meet the road, but it's nice knowing that any model run at any point could show something interesting. Certainly beats the boring winters we've had of late.

And it's nice that these things are showing up on main models too. Keeps us from having to unearth the KMA, the Brazilian, and so on.
 
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