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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
Yep, lol we're pretty much going back to the 12z run in the short range w/ the upper low closer to CA and s/w slower
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s/w looks more amped this run though even compared to 12z.
12z
namconus_z500_vort_us_38.png

00z
namconus_z500_vort_us_28.png
 
Given we practically erased the faster evolution of the s/w depicted on the 18z, in comparing the current run w/ today's 12z, our s/w looks stronger and the upper level trough off California is digging more which amplifies the west coast ridge. The stronger west coast ridge will help sharpen our wave downstream and is what the UKMET is showing. This is one reason why it's so much further NW of other guidance atm. We'll see how much this translates downstream and is reflected in the 0z GFS.
output_kXhtFD.gif
 
So far, looks like this NAM run is going to be better than 18z. Also, we will have better wave data in the coming days to really nail this down. It seems as it gets closer to observation networks, we get a slightly better solution. This is an excellent threat to learn to read 500mb maps guys! Try!
 
closed low at hr 51 and slower, and def. more tilt with it so far. not as positive. oh, and there is more seperation of the stream from the vortex in the east here comes the chaser as well
 
Hm, looks like a piece of energy is gonna come in from the West this run. Lets see if it effects the orientation/speed of the lead wave.
 
Shawn said:
Hm, looks like a piece of energy is gonna come in from the West this run. Lets see if it effects the orientation/speed of the lead wave.
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I was just noticing that also, don't believe that was there before.... could be a wrinkle we don't like?
 
Shawn said:
Hm, looks like a piece of energy is gonna come in from the West this run. Lets see if it effects the orientation/speed of the lead wave.
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Yeah looks like this little s/w entering the west will deposit a little extra vorticity into our primary wave but it cuts back on the ridge a little
 
The ridge setup isn't as sharp or so, the secondary wave can't just drop down. :(
 
Yeah, the low is forming further off the FL coast vs 18z. On to the GFS.
 
Yeah the s/w over the Canadian prairies isn't dropping in at all, stays confined to central Manitoba, wow what a change from the last run. This won't even be close.

nam_z500_vort_us_22.png
 
Problem is, once you get further out here; the NAM starts in on some GFS data, especially with that secondary wave, along with whatever clusterf* that came out of the west to help jinx it. I would not doubt the GFS showing some kind of worse situation also. We shall see.

eidt* correct me if i am wrong. maybe 00z runs dont do that.
 
What's weird is the wave was west of all it's prior runs and starting to tilt, but ya the chaser wave was very slow
 
deltadog03 said:
What's weird is the wave was west of all it's prior runs and starting to tilt, but ya the chaser wave was very slow
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Agreed... so educate me here. I thought it was slower, west and starting to tilt also and and at the end of the run it looked like it still had a chance, especially for coastal regions, so what gives? Of course it is the NAM in the long range and it's subject to crazy stuff
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed... so educate me here. I thought it was slower, west and starting to tilt also and and at the end of the run it looked like it still had a chance, especially for coastal regions, so what gives? Of course it is the NAM in the long range and it's subject to crazy stuff
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Ridge wasn't as tall so the chaser couldn't dive down. No phase=RUH ROH
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed... so educate me here. I thought it was slower, west and starting to tilt also and and at the end of the run it looked like it still had a chance, especially for coastal regions, so what gives? Of course it is the NAM in the long range and it's subject to crazy stuff
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I think it started very well, and IMHO the wave itself looked much better this run, in fact.....the further west with the wave itself. The bad part, was that the chaser didn't make it in time. I think** if that chaser is there quicker this would have been a much bigger deal.
 
I will also say, there is a really big area in the gom with strong UVV
*omega/lift* and moisture pooling up as well. So, we shall see what shakes loose on the globals tonight, we need that chaser...I Think NAM look with the main wave plus quick chaser....that could be great

Also, near the coast line there is lowering pressures and some nice omega/lift near the gulf stream
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Ridge wasn't as tall so the chaser couldn't dive down. No phase=RUH ROH
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I get that, the 18z NAM was headed for a possible phase late or at least trending that way it would appear and this run not even close but everything about this run was different from the beginning. Funny thing to me that energy that came in from the west coast seemed to help keep our s/w strong, consolidated and further west going almost neutral tilt at the end but I guess without the phase even if it were to go neutral to negative it wouldn't work. Anyway I wouldn't lose hope over one NAM run and may have to wait for the Ukmet and Euro to see if this is a "trend".... not gonna rely on the GFS that's for sure. edit: unless the GFS shows what we want lol
 
The overall trends thus far are similar to what the NAM had thru 36 hours. A slower trailer is fine as long as our lead wave is just as slow, but the trailer is slower relative to our main s/w so this is not what we wanted to see. The west coast ridge also looks a little weaker this time, which is also not good
 
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