Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[RollTide18]

Another non-educated opinion but as one alluded to last night I think, to think we're gonna get six straight days up until the event is foolish, I can't remember if it happened. There will be ups and downs.

 

[Webberweather53]

The only problem with that is by the time we get a healthy shortwave the cold air will be long gone.
We will be back at square one again.

This pattern is at least going to persist into mid January so if we can drop one nice s/w into California by then, we'll be in business. If anything, this cold air really has refused to go away, and probably will continue to remain the case for the foreseeable future. The warm-up that may have been in the cards by then is starting to wither away...

 

[Storm5]

That actually isn't as bad as I thought it would be.

Good he was all in on the 28th/29th system . So that means bombs alway next week

 

[Clayton Reid]

To just solidify my point even more, the last time a healthy shortwave crashed into California was earlier this month on December 5th.
We all know what happened a few days later...
So again, in this kind of pattern, to get a big, board-wide event, we need a healthy wave to smack into California to kick off a large area of intense, moist southwesterly-WSWly flow and that's what we've been lacking since that storm on the 8th-9th, but our fortunes could change in another 2 weeks or so as the tropical forcing shifts around a little bit to the Maritime Continent and the ridge over Alaska builds and begins to retrograde towards the Bering Sea & NE Eurasia.
Here's the z500 analysis from the high resolution DWD-ICON model for 0z December 5, 2017. This is a model analysis which takes real-time observations and merges them with a first guess very short term forecast from the model, so it's going to be practically the same for most models anyway and it's really hard to screw that up in general, so I decided to go with the highest resolution global model that was available in the Meteocentre's archive in spite of its recent forecast busts.

View attachment 2394

But Webber, it seems like by the time storms start coming in from California, we would have lost the cold pattern by then. I just don't see us being that fortunate. By the time that happens, we'll be back to warm in my opinion and most likely wasted this pattern.

 

[Clayton Reid]

The only problem with that is by the time we get a healthy shortwave the cold air will be long gone.
We will be back at square one again.

Exactly what I was thinking. I think we would have lost out by then. I can see our fortunes being THAT good for the SE. Especially considering the past few blowtorch winter's..

 

[Webberweather53]

But Webber, it seems like by the time storms start coming in from California, we would have lost the cold pattern by then. I just don't see us being that fortunate. By the time that happens, we'll be back to warm in my opinion and most likely wasted this pattern.

I totally disagree with this, I could come up w/ a multitude of examples of big overrunning events in the southeastern US where in fact a big s/w crashing into California was the catalyst the set off the overrunning event. As long as there's a big vortex in southeastern Canada and New England like there has been for the past week or two, we're going to have more than enough cold air at our disposal. Keep in mind when this event occurred in early December, we were at a point in the year that was appreciably less favorable for wintry weather and this storm created its own cold air through melting hydrometeors to eradicate the low level above freezing layer, and we still ended up with a big storm for many on the board.

 

[Clayton Reid]

This pattern is at least going to persist into mid January so if we can drop one nice s/w into California by then, we'll be in business. If anything, this cold air really has refused to go away, and probably will continue to remain the case for the foreseeable future. The warm-up that may have been in the cards by then is starting to wither away...

If you say so. I don't think we will be that fortunate though. It would probably be a miracle from God if the cold lasted long enough to score from a California shortwave..

 

[Webberweather53]

Exactly what I was thinking. I think we would have lost out by then. I can see our fortunes being THAT good for the SE. Especially considering the past few blowtorch winter's..

Many on this board in MS, AL, & GA just had their biggest snowstorm since at least the March 1993 superstorm in a climatologically unfavorable period in early December for crying out loud lol we've done very well thus far given what we've had to work with.

 

[Webberweather53]

If you say so. I don't think we will be that fortunate though. It would probably be a miracle from God if the cold lasted long enough to score from a California shortwave..

If I say so? We already have done it once this winter in early December when there was hardly any arctic air to be found, it wouldn't be half as hard to do it in mid January when climatology is a few degrees colder and there's a persistent vortex over SE Canada/New England.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Many on this board in MS, AL, & GA just had their biggest snowstorm since at least the March 1993 superstorm in a climatologically unfavorable period in early December for crying out loud lol we've done very well thus far given what we've had to work with.

Yeah it was the biggest snowstorm i've seen since 1993. It was like a once or twice in a lifetime event.

 

[ColdAMO]

Well for me 1993 superstorm was total garbage.. IT was a ton of cold rain with 1 inch of backside slop snow then the next morning when the sun came out it was vaporized in a hour or two.

 

[Clayton Reid]

If I say so? We already have done it once this winter in early December when there was hardly any arctic air to be found, it wouldn't be half as hard to do it in mid January when climatology is a few degrees colder and there's a persistent vortex over SE Canada/New England.

Ok man. You have a point. All these failures has to make one wonder if we just wasted the pattern and go back to warmth, especially with your thorough explanation of why we keep busting tonight. Hopefully, we can score, but my hopes are down and doubts are way up at this point. It's ridiculous how many things the South has to get right to score a big winter event. Always threading the niddle. SMH.

 

[packfan98]

While I'm not overly optimistic for this particular threat, when there is phasing involved there is potential for a big dog. Definitely worth watching. The SOI has been negative for a while. Maybe one of those shortwaves crashing into California can deliver if we can get the temperatures to stay cold???

 

[Clayton Reid]

While I'm not overly optimistic for this particular threat, when there is phasing involved there is potential for a big dog. Definitely worth watching. The SOI has been negative for a while. Maybe one of those shortwaves crashing into California can deliver if we can get the temperatures to stay cold???

Except for the fact the SO I is about to go positive and that usually signals a ridge for the SE! Yeah, I don't think this cold has much of a chance of staying around long enough for us to score.

 

[RollTide18]

I got a good feeling about the 0z runs

 

[Webberweather53]

Ok man. You have a point. All these failures has to make one wonder if we just wasted the pattern and go back to warmth, especially with your thorough explanation of why we keep busting tonight. Hopefully, we can score, but my hopes are down and doubts are way up at this point. It's ridiculous how many things the South has to get right to score a big winter event. Always threading the niddle. SMH.

Just as another example in case you still think I'm full of crap, here's a 500 hPa animation preceding the March 1927 snowstorm via the 20th Century ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-20C). Notice a few days before the storm, a healthy shortwave crashed into southern California....

A few days later, this happened...



You want to sit here and talk about there being no cold air around and that it would get too warm before the shortwave got here, how about a majority of the southeastern US experiencing their warmest February on record leading up to the March 1927 blizzard in NC? There was one measly shot of cP that got injected into the pattern at the right time and that's all it took. February 1927 was even warmer than last February for many including for Birmingham, Chattanooga, Atlanta, Columbia, and Fayetteville, NC!!

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Honestly? The kind of cold pattern we're headed into isn't really favorable for big winter storms anyway. The only time I've seen something that was significant come in a pattern that was so cold was January 2014 and that was kind of unreal/something I don't expect to see again/a light event that became significant due to the cold.

We'll likely have to wait for the pattern to relax a bit.

 

[deltadog03]

Well we march on right!? We know what we need, but will the weather God's allow for it

 

[93Storm]

Honestly? The kind of cold pattern we're headed into isn't really favorable for big winter storms anyway. The only time I've seen something that was significant come in a pattern that was so cold was January 2014 and that was kind of unreal/something I don't expect to see again/a light event that became significant due to the cold.

We'll likely have to wait for the pattern to relax a bit.

Not necessarily, the southeast US can score a big winter event with temps. well below normal. If the pattern is right to allow a storm system, it surely can happen with temps. well below normal. I would love to see a weather system bring some moisture over the deep cold. More colder it is, equals higher snow ratios. Don't get me wrong, I see what you're saying though.

 

[CentralGAColdFront]

I think that it had been brutally cold for a few days back in December 1989 leading up to the main event for Savannah/far Southern Georgia on Christmas Eve night.