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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

18z Nam is just a little faster so far. Really splitting hairs though. The energy in the east pac looks west at 18
nam_z500_vort_namer_7.png
 
D to the T says, pattern does not support a coastal storm! He's out! :(
Surprising!?
 
I wouldn't be disappointed if we only got .2 of qpf ratios would certainly be a solid 12-15:1

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Easily 12-15:1, with surface temps ~25F you get 15:1 and it's possible we could be even colder than that during the event if it were to transpire in the first place
 
12z EPS member stamps. Surprisingly there's actually more spread on the GEFS suite this run, won't see that too often.


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With that spread too, 37 of 51 members have some accumulations in the SC Coastal Plain region...quite impressive. Last time I can remember on that many members was in the 2010 February event.
 
The pattern actually does support an Atlantic bomb but who knows how far west it gets and how soon it occurs. May not be enough outside of East NC/Coastal SC/SE VA. Still, been interesting.
 
Do we have consistency with temps amongst the models for this event? I know availability of QPF seems to be the issue, but how are temps looking, specifically macon-ish back towards savannah during the time this event is happening?
 
NAM was a slight step West with the SLP off the Southern FL coast trying to form.
 
Where will it phase?


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Hard to tell. Likely too late, but the surface reflection might be better versus say, the bad reflections (based on h5) from other modeling.
 
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