Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[olhausen]

So what is the most snow anyone here has had??

12 inches in January of 2016.

Edit: You can see what it did to the trees in my profile picture on the left.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Any chance this thing phases in the gulf and not the Atlantic?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Any chance this thing phases in the gulf and not the Atlantic?

2% chance. Very unlikely. This will be a late bloomer

 

[Cary_Snow95]

18z Nam is just a little faster so far. Really splitting hairs though. The energy in the east pac looks west at 18

 

[Brett]

Indeed it is. A couple more bumps like this and many in the Carolinas and SE VA will be in business...
View attachment 2463
That looks good needs to tick west a little more lol

 

[Clayton Reid]

18z Nam is just a little faster so far. Really splitting hairs though. The energy in the east pac looks west at 18

What is a little faster? The chaser or the lead wave?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

What is a little faster? The chaser or the lead wave?

Lead wave

 

[Brett]

12z EPS member stamps. Surprisingly there's actually more spread on the GEFS suite this run, won't see that too often.

View attachment 2466

Looks great 10 members have Good snow here

 

[SD]

Indeed it is. A couple more bumps like this and many in the Carolinas and SE VA will be in business...
View attachment 2463
View attachment 2464

I wouldn't be disappointed if we only got .2 of qpf ratios would certainly be a solid 12-15:1

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[Clayton Reid]

Lead wave

Yeah, that's cutting it close with the east pacific a little west

 

[Tarheel1]

D to the T says, pattern does not support a coastal storm! He's out!
Surprising!?

 

[Brett]

D to the T says, pattern does not support a coastal storm! He's out!
Surprising!?

He is mad he's not getting snow that's how he gets lol

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Yeah, that's cutting it close with the east pacific a little west

Kinda cancels each other out. Faster with the lead wave but since the energy in the pac is west it has more room to dig back sw

 

[Clayton Reid]

Kinda cancels each other out. Faster with the lead wave but since the energy in the pac is west it has more room to dig back sw

Yeah, thats true. At least it can dig southwest more

 

[Webberweather53]

I wouldn't be disappointed if we only got .2 of qpf ratios would certainly be a solid 12-15:1

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Easily 12-15:1, with surface temps ~25F you get 15:1 and it's possible we could be even colder than that during the event if it were to transpire in the first place

 

[Stormsfury]

12z EPS member stamps. Surprisingly there's actually more spread on the GEFS suite this run, won't see that too often.


View attachment 2466

View attachment 2465

With that spread too, 37 of 51 members have some accumulations in the SC Coastal Plain region...quite impressive. Last time I can remember on that many members was in the 2010 February event.

 

[Brett]

Easily 12-15:1, with surface temps ~25F you get 15:1 and it's possible we could be even colder than that during the event if it were to transpire in the first place

I wouldn't mind 15:1 that would be great

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Fwiw even though the nam is a little faster than its previous run, it is still slower than the GFS or CMC

 

[BHS1975]

The baroclinic zone is going to be beefy


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[GeorgiaGirl]

The pattern actually does support an Atlantic bomb but who knows how far west it gets and how soon it occurs. May not be enough outside of East NC/Coastal SC/SE VA. Still, been interesting.

 

[Brett]

The pattern actually does support an Atlantic bomb but who knows how far west it gets and how soon it occurs. May not be enough outside of East NC/Coastal SC/SE VA. Still, been interesting.

I'm hoping the U.K. Will be right lol

 

[Clayton Reid]

Fwiw even though the nam is a little faster than its previous run, it is still slower than the GFS or CMC

That's good

 

[Webberweather53]

Our s/w is definitely stronger but a tick faster this run in part because the upper level trough off California is a little further west and is thus amping the ridge on the west coast

 

[Mitch West]

Easily 12-15:1, with surface temps ~25F you get 15:1 and it's possible we could be even colder than that during the event if it were to transpire in the first place

So Eric, what would around 0.10 equal up to with a 15:1 ratio

 

[Webberweather53]

So Eric, what would around 0.10 equal up to with a 15:1 ratio

About 1.5" of snow... 15*0.1=1.5

 

[Mitch West]

About 1.5" of snow... 15*0.1=1.5

Ahh thanks, simple math. Lol

 

[BHS1975]

I think we would be in the teens here


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[Cary_Snow95]

how do you do the math just curious?

It shows you in his comment.. Multiply 15 by the amount of qpf

 

[Tarheel1]

how do you do the math just curious?

15:1 means 1" of qpf = 15" of snow
.5 qpf = 7.5" of snow

 

[Showmeyourtds]

I live in midtown and we got 4-5 inches. We haven’t got that much in over 10 years

This- I live in Decatur & received the same thing...just depends on where you define Atlanta

 

[Brett]

It shows you in his comment.. Multiply 15 by the amount of qpf

I know my bad, I wasn't looking at it correctly lol

 

[Brett]

So
If that's the case I would do great

 

[Brett]

15:1 means 1" of qpf = 15" of snow
.5 qpf = 7.5" of snow

Thanks buddy

 

[justin2k23]

Do we have consistency with temps amongst the models for this event? I know availability of QPF seems to be the issue, but how are temps looking, specifically macon-ish back towards savannah during the time this event is happening?

 

[Shawn]

NAM was a slight step West with the SLP off the Southern FL coast trying to form.

 

[Shawn]

 

[Brett]

Looks good

 

[Shawn]

 

[BHS1975]

Where will it phase?


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[Shawn]

Where will it phase?


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Hard to tell. Likely too late, but the surface reflection might be better versus say, the bad reflections (based on h5) from other modeling.