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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

justin2k23 said:
What are the chances this thing stays like it is? I' in Dublin ga, (central GA), got screwed by the last one, an most of the ones before... itd be nice to get in on the action like everybody else did last time!
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It's always a thread the needle type situation in our area for virtually any type of wintry precipitation. The models have so far held for our entire region to at least see some flakes falling from the sky. Personally, I think that the potential exists for this to be the biggest storm accumulation since February 12, 2010.
 
Shawn said:
If you Carolina boys remember Jan 2000, then this can happen based on the 12z Euro. Just let it work things out; it's not horrible!

The storm the ETA missed, precip wise; lol.
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Thinking the same thing. You know the Euro is going to trend NW in a couple of days.
 
Yikes from GSP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...If you were hoping for some snow next
week, prepare to have your dreams crushed. While the operational
ECMWF has been interesting on the past two runs, developing
low pressure over the nrn Bahamas and then moving it north while
deepening on Wednesday, there remains only minimal support from the
ensembles, and the trend (short as it is) is for the system to be
farther east. The operational GFS has this development even farther
offshore and keeps us even more bone dry. The greatest concern
would be the eastern fringe, but the GEFS plume diagram off the 12Z
run has only a half-dozen members that give CLT less-than-advisory
level snow in the Wed-Thu time frame. That`s not a lot to hang your
hat on. The remaining small possibility for wintry precip from this
system would be if the trof axis is farther west thus bringing the
low track closer to the coast. However, we have seen several times
in the last two weeks where the guidance has a potential storm
out on days 5-7 only for it to evaporate in the intervening time,
leaving us with nothing but cold temps and high clouds. A slight
chance of precip was inherited for the mid-week period, but have
taken in out based on the model trends and weak support from the
ensembles. The one item that was kept was the potential NW flow
snow event Wed nite and Thursday. Both models show a fairly deep NNW
flow that appears as though it might tap some Great Lakes moisture
on Thursday, before that stream gets re-directed toward the central
Appalachians late in the week. This was limited to a slight chance
of snow for the time being, but there is a strong possibility the
trend will be upward. Temps will remain below normal.
 
1300m said:
This actually illustrates what I've been trying to say. Look at that trailing wave in MT. It's faster and the leading wave is slower. If they interact sooner, the whole thing goes neutral tilt faster and further west.
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That's a good point to see if happens. That will slow the lead wave and then turn quicker and boom!
 
Since the New Years threat is pretty much gone, can you change the title to January 2nd-6th?
 
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