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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

well, chaser is speeding up and our wave is turning toward (starting) neutral hr 78. over west OK and panhandle of tx
 
Tarheel1 said:
Anything West ant stronger with the vort S, is good for earlier phasing?
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Yep, the stronger vort max allows the wave to tilt negative sooner, which ultimately affects the surface low track by generating a more intense storm more quickly so this might come NW

Cary_Snow95 said:
Looks like the NE trough is significantly further east so far
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Yep, that is also good in slowing the waves down a little bit when they reach the east coast.
 
GFS
gfs_z500_mslp_us_17.png

CMC
gem_z500_mslp_us_17.png

EURO
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png
 
We obviously still have work to do, for sure...but I do like the changes still. .Trends are still a more tilt for the better on the wave and chaser wave. Its phasing quicker, as Webb said. We keep trending that way even further, we are going to see a better storm for many of us GA east and northeast
 
Webberweather53 said:
The phase occurs several hours earlier this run, definitely a trend we want to see continue
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I Agree.....the trends are much better for sure. did you notice the wave actually tilt better for us quicker, and keeps trending that way...
 
Great trends, trying not to get sucked back in but obviously much better. Would love to see a run like a few days ago that had a swath of snow across south Alabama.
 
Even with all the good trends there is very little moisture to work with. We would have been better off with a southwest shortwave like Eric said, but I doubt we'll be this lucky by the time a shortwave does decide to crash into California.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Lol
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This met can explain it better than I can, I'm not as familiar with it because we don't deal with norlun troughs here in NC except in the most rare cases and it's not entirely out of the question we see one here. Basically they're extrusions of low MSLP that extend NW from the parent low, they're extremely unpredictable and often poorly forecast by NWP, those underneath a norlun get absolutely hammered w/ snow.
http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html
 
Clayton Reid said:
Even with all the good trends there is very little moisture to work with. We would have been better off with a southwest shortwave like Eric said, but I doubt we'll be this lucky by the time a shortwave does decide to crash into California.
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Ffs, can you please drop the California s/w crap. I already gave you a butload of examples from historical storms that showed it actually works for practically the entire board and the pattern doesn't look like it's going to warm up anytime soon as we near mid month.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ffs, can you please drop the California s/w crap. I already gave you a butload of examples from historical storms that showed it actually works for practically the entire board and the pattern doesn't look like it's going to warm up anytime soon as we near mid month.
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Okay. I was just saying. But what can we do to get a good moisture feed from this wave? Is it even possible?
 
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