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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

18z NAM coming soon. Unless we see some changes, the NYD/NYE threat is dead.
 
Don't have high hopes for the NYD system, should lay the foundation for hopefully the next system
 
RollTide18 said:
Where you getting that from?
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The 18z nam
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1300m said:
Have you noticed the wave diving that is phasing is trending faster each run? Even though the lead wave was farther east I'd think a quicker phase would still turn everything neutral to potentially negative tilt faster, don't you?
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I could see that. We need that caboose wave to catch and slow the other one to turn it quicker
 
Shawn said:
Here is the 12z CMC for you guys missing the data on TT:

CMC.png
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That 4" at the airport & 5" in the city on this 12Z CMC run would only be SAV's biggest snow accum. in 180 years. So, I'm very hopeful and excited as can be about the potential (I feel like I'm in an alternate universe right now between this and the ZR threat for tonight and early tomorrow), but I'm a stats guy and know not to put money on a 180 year storm even though it will happen again at some point.
 
GaWx said:
That 4" at the airport & 5" in the city would only be SAV's biggest snow accum. in 180 years. So, I'm very hopeful and excited as can be about the potential (I feel like I'm in an alternate universe right now between this and the ZR threat for tonight and early tomorrow), but I'm a stats guy and know not to put money on a 180 year storm.
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Well Larry, this year doesn't make much sense for La Nina. I mean, I guess we know why; But still. This current pattern has coastal GA/SC written all over it.
 
The boom potential for next week is so high that it's silly cliff jump. By Saturday we should definitively know what we're dealing with then after get into the mesoscale features of it.
 
DadOfJax said:
You can all but hang it up in AL folks. Not a chance we get the shifts we need.
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In most likelihood, true. But, if the Canadian has the right idea, less changes would need to happen to get you involved.

We were originally thinking we had a chance at a Gulf storm (and that is not entirely off the table), but it's becoming less probable.
 
Is it me, or does the 02-04 wave look worse than previous NAM? ruh roh.
 
Shawn said:
In most likelihood, true. But, if the Canadian has the right idea, less changes would need to happen to get you involved.

We were originally thinking we had a chance at a Gulf storm (and that is not entirely off the table), but it's becoming less probable.
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Exactly...the CMC is our closest hope...and its still a million miles away.
 
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