Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Psalm 148:8 · Dec 28, 2017

hartselleweather said:
It’s kinda like threading the needle kind of situation here with this.

It’s always like threading a needle here in the south!! Ugh!

Clem282340 · Dec 28, 2017

Shawn said:
Exactly. There are a couple members hinting at an earlier scenario; which therefore would bury parts of the Carolinas.

Would that include upstate as well

$alt · Dec 28, 2017

18z NAM coming soon. Unless we see some changes, the NYD/NYE threat is dead.

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2017

Shawn said:
Exactly. There are a couple members hinting at an earlier scenario; which therefore would bury parts of the Carolinas.

Key is “ a couple “

$alt · Dec 28, 2017

Clem282340 said:
Would that include upstate as well

I don't know.

'lucille, give me strength'

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2017

Shawn said:
18z NAM coming soon. Unless we see some changes, the NYD/NYE threat is dead.

18z nam looks horrible for New Year’s Eve

RollTide18 · Dec 28, 2017

Shawn said:
18z NAM coming soon. Unless we see some changes, the NYD/NYE threat is dead.

Yeah, probably best to change the dates to the 2nd-4th.

deltadog03 · Dec 28, 2017

Don't have high hopes for the NYD system, should lay the foundation for hopefully the next system

RollTide18 · Dec 28, 2017

Storm5 said:
18z nam looks horrible for New Year’s Eve

Where you getting that from?

Storm5 · Dec 28, 2017

RollTide18 said:
Where you getting that from?

The 18z nam

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

deltadog03 · Dec 28, 2017

1300m said:
Have you noticed the wave diving that is phasing is trending faster each run? Even though the lead wave was farther east I'd think a quicker phase would still turn everything neutral to potentially negative tilt faster, don't you?

I could see that. We need that caboose wave to catch and slow the other one to turn it quicker

Webberweather53 · Dec 28, 2017

Joe Bastardi is already going ape over this storm, so I guess it probably won't happen now that he's on board lol. #joebastardicurse

GaWx · Dec 28, 2017

Shawn said:
Here is the 12z CMC for you guys missing the data on TT:

That 4" at the airport & 5" in the city on this 12Z CMC run would only be SAV's biggest snow accum. in 180 years. So, I'm very hopeful and excited as can be about the potential (I feel like I'm in an alternate universe right now between this and the ZR threat for tonight and early tomorrow), but I'm a stats guy and know not to put money on a 180 year storm even though it will happen again at some point.

$alt · Dec 28, 2017

GaWx said:
That 4" at the airport & 5" in the city would only be SAV's biggest snow accum. in 180 years. So, I'm very hopeful and excited as can be about the potential (I feel like I'm in an alternate universe right now between this and the ZR threat for tonight and early tomorrow), but I'm a stats guy and know not to put money on a 180 year storm.

Well Larry, this year doesn't make much sense for La Nina. I mean, I guess we know why; But still. This current pattern has coastal GA/SC written all over it.

RollTide18 · Dec 28, 2017

The boom potential for next week is so high that it's silly cliff jump. By Saturday we should definitively know what we're dealing with then after get into the mesoscale features of it.

$alt · Dec 28, 2017

DadOfJax said:
You can all but hang it up in AL folks. Not a chance we get the shifts we need.

In most likelihood, true. But, if the Canadian has the right idea, less changes would need to happen to get you involved.

We were originally thinking we had a chance at a Gulf storm (and that is not entirely off the table), but it's becoming less probable.

$alt · Dec 28, 2017

Is it me, or does the 02-04 wave look worse than previous NAM? ruh roh.

RollTide18 · Dec 28, 2017

DadOfJax said:
You can all but hang it up in AL folks. Not a chance we get the shifts we need.

I wouldn't say that, there's still a chance, especially south of I-20. A lot can change six days out, boom or bust potential for sure.

DadOfJax · Dec 28, 2017

Shawn said:
In most likelihood, true. But, if the Canadian has the right idea, less changes would need to happen to get you involved.

We were originally thinking we had a chance at a Gulf storm (and that is not entirely off the table), but it's becoming less probable.

Exactly...the CMC is our closest hope...and its still a million miles away.

RollTide18 · Dec 28, 2017

DadOfJax said:
Not a bust potential....there has to be a decent shot to qualify for a bust.

And there is a decent shot.

Euro showed 1-2 inches here last night, yeah 12z wasn't good but I'm not jumping ship.