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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

ForsythSnow said:
From an early viewpoint on the GFS, I say we continue the west trend. Looks a hair stronger and slower at 30 than previous runs up in Canada.
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Yep, but the upper low off of California is a little closer thru 42 which dampens the ridge a little on the west coast and tends to scoot our s/w a little further east... Need that upper low to keep backing up over the subtropical NE Pacific
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Webberweather53 said:
The beat goes on, this northern stream s/w continues to slow down

View attachment 2444
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Yep, and there is a good difference between 6Z and 12Z. Keep it up at this rate and we will have a larger area this storm could affect. In addition, maybe this could be a close run for E NC or even a hit. The tailing energy isn't any closer though so maybe not.
 
Brett said:
It can still trend that way
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That's one thing we actually haven't seen in the guidance of late, sure it could happen but we're much more likely to see the speed change than these waves back all the way up into Idaho. Another point worth considering is that a wave like this, if close enough to the front range of the Rockies will try to remain in the Lee of the Rockies where vorticity stretching is optimal, a s/w traversing over the Rockies in Idaho, central-western Wyoming & Colorado would weaken considerably by virtue of column compression which induces an anticyclonic vorticity tendency on the s/w thus causing it to dampen. It would eventually re-intensify on the other side...
 
Almost identical to 6z with just a glancing blow to the OBX... at least it didn't go east on us. My gut says the Euro tries to phase and pulls this inland a touch more... we shall see in a couple hours
 
metwannabe said:
Almost identical to 6z with just a glancing blow to the OBX... at least it didn't go east on us. My gut says the Euro tries to phase and pulls this inland a touch more... we shall see in a couple hours
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I’d still be excited about the possibility if I lived near the Carolina coast and a touch inland .
 
Stormsfury said:
I'm cautiously optimistic. Feels much like Dec 1989 right now. It really does.
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December 1989 had a positively tilted trough axis from the eastern US to Greenland and was really just a bonafide overrunning event, the longwave here is negatively tilted, just gets shunted a little faster w/o much Greenland blocking as was prevalent in the Jan 2000 case. This is a hybrid of the two in a large sense.
Dec 22-24 1989 N hem 500mb.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
December 1989 had a positively tilted trough axis from the eastern US to Greenland and was really just a bonafide overrunning event, the longwave here is negatively tilted, just gets shunted a little faster w/o much Greenland blocking as was prevalent in the Jan 2000 case. This is a hybrid of the two in a large sense.
View attachment 2447
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Is it rare to have two short waves coming over the ridge in the west phase into each other and produce a big winter snow storm?
 
Webberweather53 said:
December 1989 had a positively tilted trough axis from the eastern US to Greenland and was really just a bonafide overrunning event, the longwave here is negatively tilted, just gets shunted a little faster w/o much Greenland blocking as was prevalent in the Jan 2000 case. This is a hybrid of the two in a large sense.
View attachment 2447
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Glad yoi said it with the hybrid of the two cause I had thought it for a couple of days now. Definitely looking at bombogenesis once this gets cranking.

Similarities with the surface high strength from Dec 1989 and now are eerie as well. ..
 
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