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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

crecre9 said:
FWIW, SREF total snow mean for HSV continues its march downwards.
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There are only 4 members on there, a lot more to go, you can't judge it at all at that point, it's just starting. Edit: looking at the whole thing, it has gone down some from earlier, but it's not done well in previous events I checked.
 
crecre9 said:
That graphic makes me legitimately concerned about downsloping reducing snow totals in my area in Huntsville. The wind from east would support that theory. Am I crazy? that graphic even shows the higher amounts on the ridge tops here and then nearly a 2" drop off immediately west. Its only about 700' higher though.
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Yes, downsloping doesn’t happen at 700’ elevation


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For MY (OUR) Coastal AO FCA.

**
The well-advertised storm system which will be crossing the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday will send plentiful moisture
overhead in the form of dense mid-upper cloud cover. Isentropic
upglide most notably found along the 295K surface overlapping
with high moisture content air will undoubtedly yield
precipitating clouds during Friday afternoon. However, the
remains of the Arctic air mass will leave a considerable wedge
of dry air beneath these clouds, which will prevent this precip
from reaching the ground and instead use it to moisten the air.
This process will also result in evaporative cooling of the
low-level air, thereby leading to a chance for light snow or
sleet to reach the ground from late Friday afternoon into the
night across northern and western areas.

However, as a warm nose, (WAA), becomes increasingly established ahead of the approaching
surface low, precip type concerns switch to freezing rain where
air temps manage to evaporatively cool below freezing during the
early stages of this event; even so, preceding daytime air
temps in the low 40s and rising temps through the night preclude
much concern over ice accretion, which may only be reserved to
elevated metal surfaces for a few hours where temps are cold
enough in our northern and western zones.

Otherwise, plain rain is still expected to become the dominant
precipitation type overnight as warm air both works its way down
and is advected inland at the surface ahead of the low.
Guidance continues to trend towards a faster shortwave passage,
with rain chances peaking early Saturday morning and tapering
off from west to east during the morning into the early
afternoon. QPF totals look to end up in the 0.25-0.75" range,
highest near the coast. Behind this storm system, there actually
may be some warming that occurs as clouds thin and precip
abates, leading to highs in the upper 40s inland and perhaps low
50s along/near the coast.**
 
EV/WS said:
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Seems about right to me. Although I question those 3-4" numbers to the north (not sure there's going to be enough QPF). We got the northern stream press I had anticipated, but not in the way I thought. Instead of amping up the system, it flattened it lol.
 
1300m said:
Seems about right to me. Although I question those 3-4" numbers to the north (not sure there's going to be enough QPF). We got the northern stream press I had anticipated, but not in the way I thought. Instead of amping up the system, it flattened it lol.
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Yeah I think it may be more of a stripe across the RAH CWA than that map indicates. Closer but not identical to some of those euro clown maps
 
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