packfan98
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yea, but you gotta ride the line to get best rates. Whoever gets right on the pink line will have highest totals.
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NWS starting too high here..locally up to half a foot in areas of Wilkes&Surry away from downtown areas. I think they will come down some on their maps.
Given my location and the large majority of current modeling I could just about walk to either side of that line.
NWMSGuy
Member
Will be interesting to see how this plays out. HRRR has the frozen line south while NAM brings it further north of my location.
NAM still ugly but a smidge colder, take improvements wherever you can get them
As close to boardwide as we’ve been since 2011. It’s so boardwide we even got Webber in the game 1400miles away in New Mexico. Enjoy this one, guys. We deserve this one.
Cary_Snow95
Member
lol 18z NAM says Wake never gets snow. Starts as sleet and ends as ZR
Warm nose shallow to mid layers in Southern Cabarrus County ( work) wonder if it will be actually this warm?
Don't look at the 3KNAM if you like snow lol
Oconeexman
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Nam dropping .85 imby. That's about the wettest I've seen of any model thus far.
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3K NAM has a warm layer I dont think I've ever seen before. It's only maybe 75mb wide(maybe even more narrow) between 725 and 800mb.
At one point do we stop ignoring the NAM because it’s “always too amped at this range”
NCSNOW
Member
3k NAM not as bad as I expected and still snowing north of 64
3k a tad colder than 12k NAM, it ain't over yet
NWS HUN AFD already reduced projected totals from 4-7 this morning to 2-5 this afternoon.
NAM with another significant decrease in QPF. This is just depressing at this point. Going to be flurries and sprinkles east of the Apps by tomorrow afternoon.
beanskip
Member
Wow, the NAM's N.C. QPF output fell off a cliff. Kind of the "anti-amp" once it gets to the Carolinas.
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For the RDU folks, look at the 3k NAM, not the 12k. At one point, early on, it showed RDU at 32/17 with rain.
iGRXY
Member
With rates I'm thinking that's snow.
Deerhunter75
Member
I was just in Meriwether County Georgia. In between Woodbury and Greenville Georgia DOT was brining the Highway 109.
We need a bigger onset hit to rapidly cool the column
Didn't expect it after seeing the SREF plumes, but the 18z NAM is a slight improvement over the 12z NAM for the NC Piedmont. Still terrible, though.
Does anyone have the 12z AI Euro? (I think that's only available on paid sites?)
Does anyone have the 12z AI Euro? (I think that's only available on paid sites?)
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah I've never seen this before. This is a Miller A gulf low going from TX, snow, GA snow, and dies in the Carolinas. Just never seen it before. Take me back to the Miller B days where we get a huge amped storm but a great High funneling in a super CAD. Miller B is the new old school, lol.
Anyone got the AI euro?
JLL1973
Member
The January 2011 storm GA / upstate SC posters remember very fondly did this, more or less. RDU got zero snow and just some IP / ZR (although the CLT area still got some before it died out).
ChattaVOL
Member
I don't have the snow map but from looking at the qpf and temps it's going to be similar to 6z probably shifted 1 or 2 county layers north
ChattaVOL
Member
This thing is locked in
Euro AI Total Precip
I don't know how the snowfall algorithms work for that map and whether they're showing ZR / IP as snow, but taking the map at face value that's another 2-4"+ across nearly all over NC, which would be a very notable storm and not something you see much.
On another note, looks like it's time for me to repurchase a model subscription.
Ron Burgundy
Member
I mean, that’s below the 90% confidence minimum FFC had in the briefing