• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

rburrel2 said:
One inch per house snow rates in that death band over Atlanta on the Hrr around noon friday.
Changes to sleet after this band passes by there.
Click to expand...
Man the orientation of that reminds me so much of the January 2011 storm. Looked just like that and stuck immediately
 
jrips27 said:
Man the orientation of that reminds me so much of the January 2011 storm. Looked just like that and stuck immediately
Click to expand...

I was going to say the same exact thing. The FGEN band looked exactly like that. Generally a west to east band of 1-2 inch per hour rates. Most of the snow came within that band. Over my house, that storm produced about 5-6 inches of snow.
 
SnowedIn1 said:
I can see KFFC upping the totals quite a bit if these models keep holding serve for the ATL metro area(North and South)
Click to expand...
I hope so! Their latest products reduce snow totals a bit (I guess in favor of more mixing?):
StormTotalSnow.jpg
 
1-2” minimum for @Frosty but enough time still left if qpf increases just a hair would give you a moderate event closer to 3-7”..I don’t think globals will see that either..watch some of these in-house models from wxii12
 
NWS GSP Official Guidance

KEY MESSAGES:

1) THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS EXPANDED EAST, AND NOW INCLUDES THE
ENTIRE NC MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS, AND PIEDMONT, AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE
SC UPSTATE.

2) SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUANCE, WHILE ICE TOTALS HAVE REMAINED SIMILAR.

AS OF 246 PM EST WEDNESDAY: BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A POTENT
500MB TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, INCITING
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA COASTLINE, AND DRIVING THE
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST INTO ALABAMA. THIS WILL USHER
DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY,
INTENSIFYING AS THE LOW DRAWS NEARER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
INTO THE SC LOWLANDS BY DAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY REMAINING
SOUTH OF GSP'S FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. SO,
A MATURE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL LIFT OUT OF GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY
MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS AN ABRUPT ONSET TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA. THE STRENGTH
AND ALTITUDE OF THIS WAA WILL DICTATE HOW, EXACTLY, ONSET PROCEEDS.

INITIALLY, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. TEMPS WILL
HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING,
AND THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED ENOUGH THAT NUCLEATION
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. SO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL FALL AS SNOW...AND
ALTHOUGH A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS,
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SUCH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT IT WON'T TAKE
MORE THAN 1-2 HOURS FOR THIS LAYER TO SATURATE...ALLOWING FOR
THINGS TO PRETTY QUICKLY EVOLVE FROM DRY CONDITIONS, TO FLURRIES,
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAX OUT BEFORE THE NORMAL DIURNAL MAX, PEAKING
AT BASICALLY HOWEVER WARM IT CAN GET BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND
TEMPS BEGIN WET-BULBING DOWN. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY TAKE PLACE AS
EARLY AS THE 9AM-12PM WINDOW, AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WHERE THINGS WILL RAMP UP SOONER. THE DETAILS BEYOND THIS
POINT, HOWEVER, ARE MURKIER. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WAA WILL CONTINUE, AND SOME FORM OF CHANGEOVER FROM ALL-SNOW TO
WINTRY MIX APPEARS LIKELY. THE MOST RECENT 12Z CYCLE OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP ITS HANDLING OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT,
BUT IN RESPONSE TO A MORE SOUTHWARD STORM TRACK, THE RESULTING
WARM NOSE IS ALSO HIGHER - AS HIGH AS 700MB PER THE LATEST NAM -
WITH A DEEPER SUBFREEZING LAYER AT THE SURFACE. ACCORDINGLY,
CALIBRATED SLEET PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED AT THE EXPENSE OF
LOWER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN PROBS...SOMEWHAT REDUCING OVERALL
ICE ACCUMULATIONS DESPITE THE ROBUST WARM NOSE.

UNFORTUNATELY, THERE'S STILL A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERROR, AND A LOT OF
TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE. IF LOW-LEVEL PROFILES GET EVEN A
TINY BIT WARMER, IT'LL MEAN LESS SLEET AND MORE ICE. IF THE WARM
NOSE GETS STRONGER...LESS SNOW, MORE ICE. IF THE SYSTEM SPEEDS
UP, QPF, WHICH CONTINUES EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLES,
COULD CHANGE, WHICH WOULD ALTER BOTH SNOW AND ICE TOTALS. IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY, THOUGH, THAT THE UPSTATE WON'T ESCAPE AT LEAST
A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE, AND THAT ZONES AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 WILL
BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SOME SLEET. DREAMS OF AN ALL-SNOW FORECAST?
QUASHED.

IN ANY CASE, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT DRY
AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING IN ALOFT AND CUTTING OFF ICE NUCLEATION.
FOR ZONES TO THE SOUTH THAT ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FREEZING RAIN,
THIS WON'T REALLY MATTER, BUT FOR ZONES FARTHER NORTH, WHICH MAY
STILL BE EXPERIENCING SNOW, THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS ALTOGETHER AND SKIES
BEGIN CLEARING. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION, SUCH THAT HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BARELY HIT 40 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top