Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[rburrel2]

Notice that trend on the euro with the northern stream, every run has been headed the right direction, but it’s finally making a impact since it’s far enough south View attachment 161353

Yep. we get that and the 700-750mb warm nose is no longer a concern for us. Icon/Graf/Ukmet all looking the same with respect to the warm nose... gonna be interesting to see who wins, but i'm guessing the 5h height field getting mashed a little more in our direction from that great lakes lobe is what's driving it, and i'll trust the euro over the NAM at 60hrs out for that.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

That put me in a really good spot. More snow showing up in the Southern Foothills. That " snow finger" has been showing up on virtually every model. I believe that will verify.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Winter storm watch language changes for FFC.

1-7” now south to north is their call!!!

What was it before ?

 

[weather bubba]

The models this morning are looking better for folks in North Carolina. If we had a little more QPF to work with this storm might be a noteworthy event for the northeastern two thirds of the state. To be honest, any accumulating snow is noteworthy considering the snow drought we have been in.

 

[KyloG]

Can see why the diff in GFS/Euro...at hour 60...who you think is right

 

[jrips27]

Anyone have a Euro ptype loop?


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[griteater]

Can see why the diff in GFS/Euro...at hour 60...who you think is right

View attachment 161356

The Euro AI and its trends!!

 

[NCSNOW]

Doc stays all snow here

 

[ChattaVOL]

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[Showmeyourtds]

What was it before ?

2-4" I-20 north, 3-6+" in the mts

Not quite sure why they may have done that.

 

[strongwxnc]

That put me in a really good spot. More snow showing up in the Southern Foothills. That " snow finger" has been showing up on virtually every model. I believe that will verify.

And keeps out locations all or mostly snow.

 

[Weatherlover92]

What was it before ?

2-4 when I saw the WSW bulletin this morning.

 

[LithiaWx]

2-4 when I saw the WSW bulletin this morning.

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations between 1 and 7 inches with the higher amounts
North. Ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, northwest, and west
central Georgia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

[malak05]

The FFC updated for Winter Storm I get it because depending on "how" variations play out on temp profiles you will have potential for wide range of snow totals... if it busts on warmer side less likely part just north of I-20 see more the 1-3 inches but if it hits like Euro and some other HRRR/RAP show then areas will see higher totals in the 4 to 7 range depending on location

 

[ITUSETOSNOW]

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations between 1 and 7 inches with the higher amounts
North. Ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, northwest, and west
central Georgia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Basically it is better for the southern metro, I still think I-20 corridor N will be 2-5 inches.

 

[NCSNOW]

QPF update for my area. Cams all .37-.59.
All Cams and Ops keep us all snow. Exception still GFS with the surface low tracking to Lumberton almost and NAM as well looks like it run an inland track, crossing the wrong side of our benchmark line.

Canadian Op and Cam look best. Ditto 12z Euro, Icon, Ukmet.

a 2-4 incher looks like a great call from this range. I'm wagering we stay all snow. American models are outliers , have 0 support with surface low track from any other model.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Closer GRAF look for nc folks

QPF update for my area. Cams all .37-.59.
All Cams and Ops keep us all snow. Exception still GFS with the surface low tracking to Lumberton almost and NAM as well looks like it run an inland track, crossing the wrong side of our benchmark line.

Canadian Op and Cam look best. Ditto 12z Euro, Icon, Ukmet.

a 2-4 incher looks like a great call from this range. I'm wagering we stay all snow. American models are outliers , have 0 support with surface low track from any other model.

I'm thinking 1-2 here at best with such low qpf

 

[packfan98]

 

[LukeBarrette]

How is sleet depicted in the northern areas with a temperature profile like these on the NAM?View attachment 161320View attachment 161321View attachment 161322View attachment 161323

Warm noses can occur at other layers in the atmosphere not just the ones the model has maps for. Probably in between 700 and 850.

 

[1300m]

Getting ready to prepare an email to about 1000 folks across NC. A general 1-2" with higher amounts in southwestern NC is my thought, much like the Euro. Remember, snowfall does not equal snow accumulation. Especially when ratios are going to be < 10:1 and sleet/rain may mix in for some/many in NC.

 

[bnathanb1982]

Basically it is better for the southern metro, I still think I-20 corridor N will be 2-5 inches.

People are a lot more forgiving if they call for 1 to 3 inches and get more than that...On the flip side forecasting higher amounts only to bust low not so much

 

[rburrel2]

FV3 showing a fronto death band over the upstate at 2pm. That's gonna lay down 3-4 inches for everyone in the upstate, no matter what happens afterwards, imo.

 

[Weatherlover92]

The FFC updated for Winter Storm I get it because depending on "how" variations play out on temp profiles you will have potential for wide range of snow totals... if it busts on warmer side less likely part just north of I-20 see more the 1-3 inches but if it hits like Euro and some other HRRR/RAP show then areas will see higher totals in the 4 to 7 range depending on location

It’s a good call. Despite the fluctuations here and there among model guidance, my thoughts/opinions on the situation in my area is no different from yesterday. I’m still expecting 1-2 inches across the metro before the changeover to sleet/freezing rain. We really need that front end thump to happen asap Friday morning if we wanna raise the ceiling on how high our snowfall totals could go.

 

[rburrel2]

With respect to the memphis forecast discussion... the FV3 drops nothing but rain there from start to finish. Tells me NWS is pretty confident it won't be that amped up.

 

[KyloG]

That is legit better snow trend on the EPS for Dallas to Atlanta...

 

[Mahomeless]

FV3 showing a fronto death band over the upstate at 2pm. That's gonna lay down 3-4 inches for everyone in the upstate, no matter what happens afterwards, imo.

View attachment 161362

Can you post the national view of 500mb at that same time?

 

[tempo47]

Will the front end stuff in atl melt by the afternoon or is it going to accumulate some and stick through the night?

 

[BufordWX]

I am looking forward to getting to tomorrow night so we can start nowcasting this thing. I wonder if we end up seeing overperformance or underperformance in TX/AR if that will be a sign of things to come for us further east. I have fond memories of the night before the December 2017 storm where Texas over performed and that was a sign of things to come the next day further east.

 

[Rain Cold]

I like that the Euro came in ok with QPF. However, I would be more inclined to trust NAM thermals. Kind of blend the two with perhaps a slant toward slightly colder thermals would be how I would go right now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see QPF bump back up over the next day or so.

 

[CobraMedic]

That is legit better snow trend on the EPS for Dallas to Atlanta...

View attachment 161363

And it looks like it's trending south, which would be good board wide.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

That is legit better snow trend on the EPS for Dallas to Atlanta...

View attachment 161363

Just need those purples and pinks to translate EAST!

 

[Rain Cold]

This is slightly OT, but if anyone is using a free tool they like to make maps, would you mind putting what you're using and maybe a link in this thread?

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/forecast-model-sites-links.1363/

 

[rburrel2]

Can you post the national view of 500mb at that same time?

 

[DopplerWx]

Give us this and we will all be happy. Instant stickage and sleet on top will be just fine

 

[DAWG4LIFE]

The FFC updated for Winter Storm I get it because depending on "how" variations play out on temp profiles you will have potential for wide range of snow totals... if it busts on warmer side less likely part just north of I-20 see more the 1-3 inches but if it hits like Euro and some other HRRR/RAP show then areas will see higher totals in the 4 to 7 range depending on location

I’m hoping and praying for one to 2 inches here in Dallas, Georgia, but who knows

 

[ColdCoreLow]

Anyone have the EPS for BHM?

 

[mrdaddyman]

It's interesting how the footprint of the higher accumulations on most of the current model runs are now through Section B but the only one that mentions several inches of snow is Section A.

 

[KyloG]

For precip the EPS is usually fairly money...it's getting slim picking for the northern half of NC...soon will be below .1"

 

[cooper]

 

[rburrel2]

Give us this and we will all be happy. Instant stickage and sleet on top will be just fine
View attachment 161366

That storm of the FV3 was going to be epic for us. Was gonna drop over an inch of liquid half'ish snow/half'ish sleet for the upstate. It's likely over done with the strength of the storm though. But it's nice to know that our worst case scenario with WAA/amperage is probably something about like this.