Cad Wedge NC
Member
That put me in a really good spot. More snow showing up in the Southern Foothills. That " snow finger" has been showing up on virtually every model. I believe that will verify.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
What was it before ?
The models this morning are looking better for folks in North Carolina. If we had a little more QPF to work with this storm might be a noteworthy event for the northeastern two thirds of the state. To be honest, any accumulating snow is noteworthy considering the snow drought we have been in.
The Euro AI and its trends!!
Doc stays all snow here
ChattaVOL
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Showmeyourtds
Member
And keeps out locations all or mostly snow.
2-4 when I saw the WSW bulletin this morning.
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations between 1 and 7 inches with the higher amounts
North. Ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch possible.
* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, northwest, and west
central Georgia.
* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
The FFC updated for Winter Storm I get it because depending on "how" variations play out on temp profiles you will have potential for wide range of snow totals... if it busts on warmer side less likely part just north of I-20 see more the 1-3 inches but if it hits like Euro and some other HRRR/RAP show then areas will see higher totals in the 4 to 7 range depending on location
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
Basically it is better for the southern metro, I still think I-20 corridor N will be 2-5 inches.
QPF update for my area. Cams all .37-.59.
All Cams and Ops keep us all snow. Exception still GFS with the surface low tracking to Lumberton almost and NAM as well looks like it run an inland track, crossing the wrong side of our benchmark line.
Canadian Op and Cam look best. Ditto 12z Euro, Icon, Ukmet.
a 2-4 incher looks like a great call from this range. I'm wagering we stay all snow. American models are outliers , have 0 support with surface low track from any other model.
All Cams and Ops keep us all snow. Exception still GFS with the surface low tracking to Lumberton almost and NAM as well looks like it run an inland track, crossing the wrong side of our benchmark line.
Canadian Op and Cam look best. Ditto 12z Euro, Icon, Ukmet.
a 2-4 incher looks like a great call from this range. I'm wagering we stay all snow. American models are outliers , have 0 support with surface low track from any other model.
packfan98
Moderator
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Warm noses can occur at other layers in the atmosphere not just the ones the model has maps for. Probably in between 700 and 850.
Getting ready to prepare an email to about 1000 folks across NC. A general 1-2" with higher amounts in southwestern NC is my thought, much like the Euro. Remember, snowfall does not equal snow accumulation. Especially when ratios are going to be < 10:1 and sleet/rain may mix in for some/many in NC.
bnathanb1982
Member
People are a lot more forgiving if they call for 1 to 3 inches and get more than that...On the flip side forecasting higher amounts only to bust low not so much
rburrel2
Member
FV3 showing a fronto death band over the upstate at 2pm. That's gonna lay down 3-4 inches for everyone in the upstate, no matter what happens afterwards, imo.
It’s a good call. Despite the fluctuations here and there among model guidance, my thoughts/opinions on the situation in my area is no different from yesterday. I’m still expecting 1-2 inches across the metro before the changeover to sleet/freezing rain. We really need that front end thump to happen asap Friday morning if we wanna raise the ceiling on how high our snowfall totals could go.
rburrel2
Member
With respect to the memphis forecast discussion... the FV3 drops nothing but rain there from start to finish. Tells me NWS is pretty confident it won't be that amped up.
Mahomeless
Member
Can you post the national view of 500mb at that same time?
BufordWX
Member
I am looking forward to getting to tomorrow night so we can start nowcasting this thing. I wonder if we end up seeing overperformance or underperformance in TX/AR if that will be a sign of things to come for us further east. I have fond memories of the night before the December 2017 storm where Texas over performed and that was a sign of things to come the next day further east.
I like that the Euro came in ok with QPF. However, I would be more inclined to trust NAM thermals. Kind of blend the two with perhaps a slant toward slightly colder thermals would be how I would go right now.
I wouldn't be surprised to see QPF bump back up over the next day or so.
I wouldn't be surprised to see QPF bump back up over the next day or so.
And it looks like it's trending south, which would be good board wide.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Just need those purples and pinks to translate EAST!
This is slightly OT, but if anyone is using a free tool they like to make maps, would you mind putting what you're using and maybe a link in this thread?
rburrel2
Member
Give us this and we will all be happy. Instant stickage and sleet on top will be just fine
DAWG4LIFE
Member
I’m hoping and praying for one to 2 inches here in Dallas, Georgia, but who knows
ColdCoreLow
Member
Anyone have the EPS for BHM?
It's interesting how the footprint of the higher accumulations on most of the current model runs are now through Section B but the only one that mentions several inches of snow is Section A.
rburrel2
Member
That storm of the FV3 was going to be epic for us. Was gonna drop over an inch of liquid half'ish snow/half'ish sleet for the upstate. It's likely over done with the strength of the storm though. But it's nice to know that our worst case scenario with WAA/amperage is probably something about like this.
Forevertothee
Member
I would endure another 3 year drought if that came to pass.