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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

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First call map. I'm a bit more bullish on the front end thump of FGEN and a bit more QPF. The southwest mountains should do very well. The northern upstate has been consistently getting somewhere between 1.5-4" on most runs and again, I think that front end thump is legit and holds on longer than expected. South of 85 can probably get a couple of inches before the switch over where I think a couple inches of sleet is a real possibility. I think ice is likely more of an issue in the southern upstate and midlands where we start off with some snow before it switches to sleet and ZR.
 
jrips27 said:
Just hoping this trend doesn’t continue
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Gfs goes one way and rgem is going the other. We are getting into other modeling wheelhouses soon so the globals may be less useful soon. Still looking towards the European suite to see where it goes.
 
One more note for CAE. The 12z NAM's raw output only puts 0.10 precipitation as ZR, give or take a bit due to transition before turning over to rain.

Code: 
  63 01/11 03Z   31     29      88       4    0.10  0.00    555    565    3.1 -11.0 1012 100 FZRN  013OVC334    0.0    0.9
  66 01/11 06Z   33     32     145       0    0.17  0.00    555    562    6.6 -10.8 1008 100 -RA   007OVC180    0.0   11.4
  69 01/11 09Z   34     33     296       5    0.09  0.00    553    559    4.0 -10.6 1007 100 -RA   007OVC220    0.0   14.6

Those red ZR maps are wild, careful with them.
 
What can change with all the pieces of energy to ramp up snow for NC and SC? Or are we too late in the game atp? Tysm
 
12z GFS matches my thoughts to a T. Unfortunately if trends continue I may be to high for the Raleigh to Charlotte corridor with it just being a few isolated light snow showers.
 
SnowQueen said:
What can change with all the pieces of energy to ramp up snow for NC and SC? Or are we too late in the game atp? Tysm
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Anything is possible the Carolina Crusher in 2000 proved that to all of us. However that was 25 yrs ago and modeling has gotten better so the likelihood of something like that happening again is slim but not zero.


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SnowQueen said:
What can change with all the pieces of energy to ramp up snow for NC and SC? Or are we too late in the game atp? Tysm
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we need the trough to point at more like 6:45 instead of 7:30 and be stronger. gfs direction is the exact opposite

more positively tilted trough = weaker trough = less cold air aloft = more mixing issues. it's not as black and white as amped = warm and flat = cold, more amplitude in the trough here around new madrid helps everyone
 
Six Mile Wx said:
How is sleet depicted in the northern areas with a temperature profile like these on the NAM?
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Warm nose, bad track and notice the moisture is spotty. We will lose the snow growth during waves of no precipitation. Interesting seeing the explosion of storms in the Atlantic on the short range models that probably gonna rob what little moisture we had with a transfer of energy splitting the Carolina’s.
 
belowfreezing said:
What happens to our moisture once it hit's the Carolinas? Is there a chance this is being forecasted too low?
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I think at least part of it is being on the lee side of the apps. Given the orientation of the moisture its' having to cross over the mountains in NGA and SW NC and drying out some in the Carolinas. A stronger low would help negate that; but then of course we risk more WAA. Seems like that will happen regardless though. And yes, preip could be higher than forecast; but it could also bust low; especially with the dry air mass and evaporation that will happen.

This is also showing a low transfer from the gulf to the Atlantic rather than a continuation of the low. That's going to create a minimum in eastern areas unfortunately.

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weatherfide said:
It's above freezing in layers that aren't available in maps. 800 mb to 750 mb are above freezing. That is the warm nose.
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Which of course is also the snow growth region. I will say though that the NAM does have poor representation there in where it’s showing ZR. It’s showing freezing rain in a wide area that still has 925mb temperatures below freezing. That would actually be sleet
 
The current position of low on the GDPS is south and will be very interesting to see where it goes from there
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