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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Mr. Grinch said:
Yes...phase those babies
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Not too early though, then we get a horrible solution and a cutter. Phase them at the right location in the Gulf and boom, we have a great storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ughhhhh, I really didn't want to get sucked into this... These setups are so darn fickle it's not even funny, especially when you have the potential for instant occlusion as the upper wave moves over a stalled/strung out frontal boundary offshore.
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January 2000/December 89 repeat ?


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January 2000 was a good hit for us in CAE. 1989 left us high and dry though here.
 
BHS1975 said:
January 2000/December 89 repeat ?


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Yeah I mentioned above it had that Dec. 89 feel to it to me.... I experienced that one also, had to drive back home from a friends house on Christmas eve (they lived down east) left a place with 7 inches on the ground, hour later at home with just a trace lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ughhhhh, I really didn't want to get sucked into this... These setups are so darn fickle it's not even funny, especially when you have the potential for instant occlusion as the upper wave moves over a stalled/strung out frontal boundary offshore.
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That's why I said 3 days the other day, and now it's 2. If we see a trend today towards a storm again I am scrapping the day thing and saying game on for someone. I think the global models aren't seeing something or are just not sure how to handle a delicate situation like this. One slight change in the energy and something could change enough to have an effect.
 
The scary/interesting part about this is that wherever this storm develops its going to get strong in a hurry. Like webb and others have said. The thermal boundary is going to make this sucker strong and quick
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ughhhhh, I really didn't want to get sucked into this... These setups are so darn fickle it's not even funny, especially when you have the potential for instant occlusion as the upper wave moves over a stalled/strung out frontal boundary offshore.
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Don't you say such sexy things

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Maybe someone can chime in as I can't remember. Do we get upper air obs in that area of Canada or are we really flying blind untik the waves hit the US border. I know our upper air network is sparse, but how sparse?
 
Arcc said:
Maybe someone can chime in as I can't remember. Do we get upper air obs in that area of Canada or are we really flying blind untik the waves hit the US border. I know our upper air network is sparse, but how sparse?
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I believe Canada has some sites the trailing wave is currently near the end of the Aleutian chain and won't be over Canada until midday Monday

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ARCC you thinking this has any chance of trending good enough to get some of us back in the game? Or will this be situation where it would be more for the Carolina folks?
 
Mr. Grinch said:
I believe Canada has some sites the trailing wave is currently near the end of the Aleutian chain and won't be over Canada until midday Monday

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That will be fun waiting..lol
 
For the lead wave the models want to sort of thumb heights in over the top of it in northern BC. I wonder if that will have any effect in slowing it down. I mean we aren't asking for much
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Brett said:
That's very good for banding right?
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Could set up a nice explosive deform band, I don't even wan to think about it right now and get my hopes up lol... btw you closer to the Bay or down near Va/NC border?

Arcc said:
Maybe someone can chime in as I can't remember. Do we get upper air obs in that area of Canada or are we really flying blind untik the waves hit the US border. I know our upper air network is sparse, but how sparse?
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Webb posted a map the other day of air obs over Canada and the US, I'll see if I can find it or maybe he can post it again.
 
Parker said:
ARCC you thinking this has any chance of trending good enough to get some of us back in the game? Or will this be situation where it would be more for the Carolina folks?
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I think it could, but it would be light. Like I said last night, I could see this getting back to where we were when the thead started. Perhaps a small stripe of 1-2" snow across deep southern AL/GA before nailing south east GA, a chunk of SC and NC. However I could see us in central AL seeing snow showers if that occurs, which would be a huge win from where we were yesterday.
 
metwannabe said:
Could set up a nice explosive deform band, I don't even wan to think about it right now and get my hopes up lol... btw you closer to the Bay or down near Va/NC border?



Webb posted a map the other day of air obs over Canada and the US, I'll see if I can find it or maybe he can post it again.
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Awesome. I must have missed it.
 
So this is ***OLD**. from the WED night 00z thur on the 28th, from the CMC. Just for comparison to where we are now

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metwannabe said:
Could set up a nice explosive deform band, I don't even wan to think about it right now and get my hopes up lol... btw you closer to the Bay or down near Va/NC border?



Webb posted a map the other day of air obs over Canada and the US, I'll see if I can find it or maybe he can post it again.
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You can find it if you do a google search for "University of Wyoming Upper air" or something along those lines. At their site you'll find a map w/ all the upper air sites across North America and you can load skew-Ts for upper air data at some stations going back to 1973
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can find it if you do a google search for "University of Wyoming Upper air" or something along those lines. At their site you'll find a map w/ all the upper air sites across North America and you can load skew-Ts for upper air data at some stations going back to 1973
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
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The soundings from PANT have never been so relevant to me
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metwannabe said:
Could set up a nice explosive deform band, I don't even wan to think about it right now and get my hopes up lol... btw you closer to the Bay or down near Va/NC border?



Webb posted a map the other day of air obs over Canada and the US, I'll see if I can find it or maybe he can post it again.
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I live in Suffolk a little west of Virginia Beach. South of the Chesapeake bay
 
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