Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Arcc]

Yeah guys, follow the EPS here. We have a chance at a monster storm. No cliff jumping, yet!

Absolutely, of course you can't count on it, but the storm in early December did shift westward. So you have to keep hope alive.

 

[Shawn]

Here is the 12z CMC for you guys missing the data on TT:

 

[Mitch West]

Man, living on a prayer here in CAE. Lol

 

[deltadog03]

Late bloomer for sure. Let's see what the eps says for sure. Won't take much to pull this back west

 

[Flo]

The time table is next Wednesday and not NYE or NYD correct?

 

[Shawn]

CMC H5 map; not bad; starts a bit earlier than Euro; less phase chance though:
We still have a lot to figure out with this one.

 

[TheBatman]

The time table is next Wednesday and not NYE or NYD correct?

Yes that is true.

 

[Arcc]

Gah, so what it would take to bring more snow into Alabama in earlier runs. Earlier phase?

Not really. We need the wave to dig westward and turn more neutral faster and establish a SW flow. We can make out of this without a phase.

 

[Clem282340]

Is the upstate out of the woods on this system

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Is the upstate out of the woods on this system

Looks that way for now, but I would not write it off.

 

[Mitch West]

Is the upstate out of the woods on this system

Noone is, the storm isn't until next Wednesday if there is even a storm.

 

[Snownut]

Is the upstate out of the woods on this system

Unless we get an earlier phase which would pull the storm NW. Then it would be a board wide hit.

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[pcbjr]

Unless we get an earlier phase which would pull the storm NW. Then it would be a board wide hit.

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Well, almost ...

 

[Shawn]

If you Carolina boys remember Jan 2000, then this can happen based on the 12z Euro. Just let it work things out; it's not horrible!

The storm the ETA missed, precip wise; lol.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Not really. We need the wave to dig westward and turn more neutral faster and establish a SW flow. We can make out of this without a phase.

Sounds like if that happened a lot more real estate could be in play.

 

[Shawn]

Here is a link about the Carolina Crusher (Jan 2000): http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

 

[Storm5]

Not really. We need the wave to dig westward and turn more neutral faster and establish a SW flow. We can make out of this without a phase.

Yeah I’d feel much better if this shortwave was coming down through Kansas and Oklahoma vs Arkansas . We are walking an extremely fine line with the currrent setup. Thankfully it’s 6 days out but I doubt we see a 200 or so mile west shift with the shortwave track

 

[Flo]

Everyone but Raleigh is in play.

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Amazing to look at that Jan. 2000 storm and see how the models got it wrong for the most part. Can't wait to see what the EPS says.

 

[pcbjr]

Minuscule changes and that would have been some widespread foot plus totals over the Carolinas that run. We need to keep that wave farther west entering the CONUS. At least we are in the game, I'm honestly not sure what else folks are expecting at this lead time. How many winter storms have ever been modeled consistently from 6 days out?

Less than none ...