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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

malak05 said:
I would gather we got thru Sunday to watch these trends if we keep having these Jogs on the 3 main models we could have a reverse to a portion of SE fortunes. That moisture and southerly flow map is telling and promising
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Moisture increase over south Alabama...baby steps, not getting sucked back in yet.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The last 3 GFS runs have been nothing but good news w/ the handling of the northern stream wave near the eastern seaboard, just not sure if we can adjust this enough to crank out a big storm here in central NC, most likely no for now anyways.
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Also just to add with the baby steps, look at the angle on the longwave trough. It's getting a bit sharper and also digging a little west of its prior run. If trends continue like this, there is an opportunity...
 
The upper level low off California pumping the ridge over the western US and sharpening the eastern US trough base w/ this system finally comes onshore and crashes into them by day 8-9 w/ the conveyor belt of northern stream shortwaves and arctic air masses continuing to rain down on the eastern US. Overall taken at face value a good look to setup for something big later on for the entire board from Texas to the Carolinas if this threat fails to materialize.
gem_z500_vort_us_35.png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The upper level low off California pumping the ridge over the western US and sharpening the eastern US trough base w/ this system finally comes onshore and crashes into them by day 8-9 w/ the conveyor belt of northern stream shortwaves and arctic air masses continuing to rain down on the eastern US. Overall a good look to setup for something big later on for the entire board from Texas to the Carolinas if this threat fails to materialize
View attachment 2437
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It would be good if SE VA, NC south get good storms this year
 
Upper moisture is plentiful at hr108 at 500 and 700mb levels... so close..

500rh.us_se.png

700rh.us_se.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The upper level low off California pumping the ridge over the western US and sharpening the eastern US trough base w/ this system finally comes onshore and crashes into them by day 8-9 w/ the conveyor belt of northern stream shortwaves and arctic air masses continuing to rain down on the eastern US. Overall taken at face value a good look to setup for something big later on for the entire board from Texas to the Carolinas if this threat fails to materialize.
View attachment 2437
Click to expand...
Yeah, let's just hope the models are even remotely right with that look though. Let's hope it's not a false alarm of cold biases from the GFS and CMC. This is our best shot I know that by now. But it still kinda has you on the edge of your seat a little. Hopefully, this can verify and we get a good shot Eric based on past patterns.. It's a big gamble tho with the risk of possibly warming up to much but as long as the cold continues we have a good chance. If this works, I give you all the credit.
 
just sat down from running some errands...I know its late, but got off work late. I do see some positive trends tonight ladies and gents. The CMC and GFS are misses, but its trending better. I did notice the EURO trending better from 12z run...lets see what 00z brings.
 
I think this sucker may be coming back to life....imagine that lol


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1300m said:
Just catching up on the 00z runs and I for one, am thinking this one is getting closer and closer. Does the UKMET have a hit? I can't tell but man does that trough look neutral tilt way west...

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif


And then this...

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
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That also looks like the euro from the other night when our flow was straight from Hudson Bay.
 
I wonder if this situation will ultimately be one of those ones where the precipitation trends northward the closer that we get to the actual event. In this situation, virtually the whole board could get extremely lucky if the cards are played right.
 
carolinachaos said:
So this is with the Friday of next week storm? Which was supposed to have been the Wednesday system, which is not the New Years storm that is coming back to life. Would that be correct?

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on second thought, it depends...that might be all the qpf...but it does look west though
 
moisture a little further north late sunday and early monday. creeping into mid GA...VERY light though
 
HR72 ridge is leaning from SE to NW OFF the CA coast this run, it was well inland on the 12z run. .again, our wave is slower this run, and the "chaser" is quicker moving south this run so far*
 
our flow at H5 is now SW...it might not fully get there, but boy its an amazing trend...the chaser energy is going to get VERY close to pull this sucker in
 
Vort over AR, now over TX! SW shift , slightly!
 
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