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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

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Slight risk for heavy snow for parts of the south, mid Atlantic, NE 1/7-1/11


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GaStorm said:
The -AO can be a good thing if it's not too extreme like it was a couple years ago. We only had very cold and dry conditions as a result so I'm not rooting for anything extreme. The current projection does take it low but not as extreme as it was in 2022.
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Personally, I like the AO and NAO to be as low as possible, but with a southern stream underneath. That's the Nirvana pattern in my book, but it's really rare of course.

Here are some examples of such a pattern that produced multiple winter storms across the south. Note the lack of a strong +PNA ridge

GXnPTDW.png


5ge0yBL.png


hzBmvyM.png


AH4AGqA.png
 
CAD events with surface high centered off the SE US Coast rarely turn into big storms outside the mountains unless you have a ton of cold air already in place (or in-situ) & there's another mechanism to keep it there, like say a big snow pack nearby or already on the ground.

That however is simply not the case here w/ this storm late next weekend into the beginning of the following week.

That doesn't mean you can't get snow/ice, but your ceiling isn't that high.

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SnowwxAtl said:
I wonder what they see that we don't see! Even metro Atlanta is in the slight risk.
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An actual forecaster looks at the pattern instead of just taking literally what the current models are showing. They aren’t saying it will happen, but that there is a small chance. Which is exactly correct in my professional opinion.
 
1300m said:
An actual forecaster looks at the pattern instead of just taking literally what the current models are showing. They aren’t saying it will happen, but that there is a small chance. Which is exactly correct in my professional opinion.
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Thank you. fun time ahead. Interesting to see what the GFS cooks up for dinner in a few.
 
griteater said:
Personally, I like the AO and NAO to be as low as possible, but with a southern stream underneath. That's the Nirvana pattern in my book, but it's really rare of course.

Here are some examples of such a pattern that produced multiple winter storms across the south. Note the lack of a strong +PNA ridge

GXnPTDW.png


5ge0yBL.png


hzBmvyM.png


AH4AGqA.png
Click to expand...
That's some great news if things line up right. The strong -AO also keeps places further south in the game as well.
 
griteater said:
Personally, I like the AO and NAO to be as low as possible, but with a southern stream underneath. That's the Nirvana pattern in my book, but it's really rare of course.

Here are some examples of such a pattern that produced multiple winter storms across the south. Note the lack of a strong +PNA ridge

GXnPTDW.png


5ge0yBL.png


hzBmvyM.png


AH4AGqA.png
Click to expand...

There could be a brief window right after mid-month where you get what you're asking for here as everything retracts as result of the lagged -AAMa response to negative frictional torque, an approaching Indian Ocean MJO orbit, & internally forced planetary wave retrogression.


ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-7763200.png
 
Metwannabe said:
Lot of banter in here imho. Cold and dry yada yada yada, better suited for the complaining thread.
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Took care of it for ya deleted it. I was just making a point that my best storms come with a banana high. All I care about at this range is ensembles I've been around long enough to know not to look at individual op runs 200+ hours out.
 
Webberweather53 said:
CAD events with surface high centered off the SE US Coast rarely turn into big storms outside the mountains unless you have a ton of cold air already in place (or in-situ) & there's another mechanism to keep it there, like say a big snow pack nearby or already on the ground.

That however is simply not the case here w/ this storm late next weekend into the beginning of the following week.

That doesn't mean you can't get snow/ice, but your ceiling isn't that high.

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I don’t think any of us are counting on a big event here. But an inch of snow or glaze of ice would be huge with how starved we are for winter weather. Just something to legitimately track inside day 4 would be awesome.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The trend we want is to bury that southern wave, keep it clean at least till it’s around the SE, raise heights around the GLs, and slow down the SE can vortex View attachment 157844
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Essentially, if we repeat this by this magnitude we're in business I'd think. I really want to see what the euro's got next run and if it too flips. We still have a lot of time to work with.
 
rburrel2 said:
I don’t think any of us are counting on a big event here. But an inch of snow or glaze of ice would be huge with how starved we are for winter weather. Just something to legitimately track inside day 4 would be awesome.
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Fair. I’ve liked the Jan 6-7 period more than the rest of the beginning of the month for a while now.

I’d love to see this kind of storm appear again or some type of overrunning event after mid month when the cold air has been very well entrenched
 
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