RollTide18
Member
Gives Savannah and Charleston a big snowstorm
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Maps
I think it's even too late for them.
Not the 0Z Euro. The 12Z Euro, yes.
not tonights run it doesn't. Nobody gets squat...like no joke..maybe Daytona beach gets rain, but thats it.
nice cold shot...not nearly as cold as last run...
CentralGAColdFront
Member
I just looked back to check on my thoughts concerning a cold period in December and it happened in December 2010. I think that I made the mistake of labeling it 2011 since it occurred during the next school year. In January 2010, Macon only had one day of a high above 50 from 2nd to 12th. Two of the nights during that stretch featured lows in the teens. December 2010 featured an impressive stretch from the 5th to the 16th, but it wasn't as cold as the period the prior January. If the models hold true, this upcoming period should feature a cold "intensity" far higher than these two periods.
That's 12Z Euro.
As y'all know I will take the euro over any other model any day of the week, but also not clouded to know that its far from perfect and it caves to the GFS and CMC as well. The thing that makes me nervous about this one is that we are in a very progressive flow. ie cmc and gfs should do better than normal. I am certainly not giving up on this one as it won't take much to trend the other way, but it is a little concerning we don't get squat from this one. on to the 12z models tomorrow. lol
This one is likely over. We have pretty good model agreement now, being too little, too late. Here are the models from 00z tonight, all being close enough to each other with the formation of the low pressure. I'll likely throw in the towel by 00z tomorrow.
Euro:
Canadian:
GFS:
Navy:
Euro:
Canadian:
GFS:
Navy:
The time frame Eric was referring to will probably be our best bet, around Jan. 6th. He made some great points and makes sense. I just hope we can keep this cold air locked in place before a relaxation period falls on us.
That's anemic to put it mildly, but, things can change for the better. As you said, you were gonna hold out till the 00z model runs tomorrow. I concur, not looking good at all. You know how things can happen down here though. I'd just hate the fact we'd be wasting all of this cold air in place.Here is the 00z GEFS Mean to confirm the model consensus (right now) too:
is it my imagination or did the Gfs sniff out the dryness/lack of storm and somewhat moderated cold spell first, before the Euro and other models? Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to dis.
hmm, almost looks like it wants to break out a little snow on the northern fringe, N. Miss, Ala. Still a virga storm right now. 
accu35
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I actually still have little hope in this NY system. Nothing big but just maybe a dusting at best.hmm, almost looks like it wants to break out a little snow on the northern fringe, N. Miss, Ala. Still a virga storm right now.
watch delta, Webb, etal, come in later to squish our little fantasies into mush...
After the 00z runs tomorrow, if things don't trend better, i think it may be time to focus on the day 8ish potential if it remains. Eric's been alluding to this for a bit, he may be on to something.
maybe a little Cumberland Plateau snow shower activity if this model is right... hey, CHA could sneak in a flurry or two.This is supposed to account for evaporation, so this is what you have based on the 12KM NAM for accumulated precipitation from NYE/NYD:
I posted in the January thread that the later range Euro was interesting in regards to all of that stuff. I don't want to get ahead of myself though. If this mid week system fails us, I'll slink away and not pay much attention to these threats until 2 days or so out from now on.
I concur with you on that as well, as far as waiting until it's about 2 to 3 days out. I also think, maybe, we shouldn't start up possible storm threads, until about that time frame as well. Just a suggestion obviously. Considering how model trends have been for us down here as of late.
Any improvement at all is a welcome sight. We need all the help we can get. I'm hoping today we can get something positive going our way with the model trends. Yesterday was not good at all quite frankly. I think the UKMET was not too bad though. I wish i could see what it did on the frame prior to 144hr.
Indeed it is! Close to something bigger here for us Carolina folks.Better:
If it phases too early, don't you run the risk of it, coming too far North though, or in a setup/pattern like this, that wouldn't be of a concern? I am tired of the folks in the Northeast getting in on the goods.
I'd rather see if hugging the coast at this point; because the trend is not our friend. With that said, this run was a bit wonky on the surface reflection.
Guess what though! There is a wave coming in off Cali this run, where it goes; who knows. Guess we can use the January thread for that one.
EDIT: Warm air can always get in the mid levels with a strengthening low's track too close. The NE misses out on this run, also.
Yeah, January thread for that one sounds good. So , the low was closer to the coast. Sounds good, but based on trends, i don't know if it will sustain that look. Hoping it's the start of a trend more close to the coast on all of the models. Would be fantastic if we could get it to bomb out.
I wouldn't say it was closer to the coast so to speak. I'd say the surface reflection was wonky with two low pressure centers, it's still a miss, even for the coast. Just a slightly better look at H5. It was able to get a lot more precipitation going. This close to the event, we need to see many more changes. The idea of a phase to help us out, or the idea of digging enough to pop the low closer to our coast, is waning.
Well, that's true. Let's see what today's model runs/trends hold in store for us. If they don't look good, i think we need to shift our focus on the period in time Eric was referring to. Especially since you indicated you saw a wave coming in via So Cal. That could be our ticket.