Clayton Reid
Member
Yes I agree. Hopefully the GFS is just have a suppression/ fast northern stream bias. We'll see what the Euro says.
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Baby steps
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Big baby steps lolBaby steps
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DadOfJax
Member
Yea, this thing is either going to be a huge storm with a phase, or absolutely nothing. Not an overunning type situation...its boom or bust....and thats usually a bust scenario for the south.
Lol ok ok I get it that was a huge step for the GFS but it's the GFS so we still call it a baby
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Stormsfury
Member
Problem is wx.graphics just went into weathermodels mode and subscription based service 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
LOL. Let's see what the Euro has to say in a couple of hours and we'll see if it kept the storm.
If we wiff on this system mid week, then pattern is officially wasted.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol I don't wanna hype this up at all or anything but this look at day 5 on the GFS kinda looks like the Jan 2000 crusher but there are a few massive caveats
The overall z500 near the east coast isn't that dissimilar from the January 2000 event however a few minor details mean the difference between nothing and a monster. Namely, this s/w in the southern stream cutting off sooner & amplifying more and the northern stream slowing down just a tick, that's really the difference here. Certainly hard to get big coastal lows in the right place w/o much greenland blocking, sure overrunning events are easy to come by in a pattern like this (relatively speaking haha), but w/o a -NAO, it's pretty difficult to get a monstrous Miller A.
Imagine if that bloomed sooner.
The overall z500 near the east coast isn't that dissimilar from the January 2000 event however a few minor details mean the difference between nothing and a monster. Namely, this s/w in the southern stream cutting off sooner & amplifying more and the northern stream slowing down just a tick, that's really the difference here. Certainly hard to get big coastal lows in the right place w/o much greenland blocking, sure overrunning events are easy to come by in a pattern like this (relatively speaking haha), but w/o a -NAO, it's pretty difficult to get a monstrous Miller A.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep. I am incredibly frustrated about it. Kind of a big letdown since he said he was going to to make it free for all. Weather.us still has free maps though.Problem is wx.graphics just went into weathermodels mode and subscription based service
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Problem is wx.graphics just went into weathermodels mode and subscription based service
Yes but the other site, that has everything free except full access to the Euro, the Canadian never updated for some reason.
Am I missing something here? Euro showed a hit, CMC yes further south but still a storm and the GFS just took steps towards the euro....why so negative? At least wait until dr. no speaks before losing hope. Dang I thought there were good trends, reading this thread at times can be hazardous to your health lol
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The biggest surprise ever. Man that was a great storm.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, the GFS has been showing storms and the Euro hasn't, and the Euro has been right. I guess this time if the Euro is wrong and the GFS is right we just say they all suck.
9
93Storm
Guest
Yup, that sucks! It's hard to come by good free Euro maps. But, that's okay, I use Accuweather Pro.Problem is wx.graphics just went into weathermodels mode and subscription based service
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If the Euro is a hit, even if it misses the western portion of the southeast, that'll make it 4 for the last 4 there.
I just noticed, wow that sucks...understandable I guess considering the cost to get Euro maps but still. And right in the middle of a possible Winter threat, ok from a marketing stand point that was smart.Problem is wx.graphics just went into weathermodels mode and subscription based service
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We can still get really large coastal lows in a pattern like this but they've historically ended up getting shoved well offshore and implicating coastal areas of the southeast (December 1989, February 1973, etc.) without really turning up the coast, granted I'm sure few would complain about another Feb 1973 storm...
Lol even then why would anyone lose hope over a day six threat ?? Lol we’ve seen the models not get anything right past day 3
RollTide18
Member
