Snowlover34
Member
Appreciate it thanks
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
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AJ1013
Member
And the next frame puts 850mb's over Miami well below 0C. Iguana massacre coming?
iGRXY
Member
This is actually becoming a legit outcome like fro stated above. You shift the -NAO more west based, it shifts the storm track further south and builds in a slower and more wound up 50/50 that actually has legit arctic air to tape into. Ice storm potential is real with that look. Keep shifting the ridge axis further west allowing more digging and the storm track to stay further south and it can quickly turn into a snow fest for the 85 corridor and an ice fest for the 20 corridor
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
And the next frame puts 850mb's over Miami well below 0C. Iguana massacre coming?
Places like Tampa would have a chance to see Gulf effect snow if it actually got that cold
I remember that happening during the December 1989 cold snap. There was actually some light snow falling during a Buc’s home game
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That’s ridiculously cold for the downscaled GEFS mean. Nearly sub freezing highs already showing up near the end of its range.
Once again I hope everyone can appreciate how cold some of these runs really are even if you toss the op euro aside. A 10-14 day period in the cold season averaging -6+ is probably a once per 10 or 25 year event by modern standards
Here's something you don't see modeled every day. Moderation from cyclonic flow off the N. Atlantic and the STILL open waters of Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes region. The lake effect snows would be legendary.
What concerns me is if the extreme cold air comes to fruition and we do get get some good moisture, I could see suppression city becoming a problem. South Ga, South Al, southern Louisiana, and southern parts of S. Carolina could get walloped with a deep moisture storm. Extreme cold, dry air is always concerning for snow lovers in S.E. Tennessee.
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coldfront22
Member
Valid Point. Could this amount of cold lead to suppression of a Storm?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
80% chance of bottom decile 500mb heights this far out is nuts
I will roll the dice on that look every minute of every day.
rburrel2
Member
Of course it could, but it’s way too early to even worry about that right now. Also if a euro like solution verified… we would have a longer than normal window to score after the arctic blast happens thanks to the ridiculously cold/dry airmass in place. In other words, the goal posts would be really wide for wintry weather with the next system.
The odds something *that* extreme verifies is very low though.
coldfront22
Member
Thanks Burrel. And to all Exciting times ahead!
rburrel2
Member
I wonder if the Great Lakes would freeze up pretty quick in a scenario like that and shut off the tap? Maybe not though with strong winds keeping the lake churned up?
Wulfer
Member
If this were to verify and the oceans did indeed have snow for a period of time. Would this work as a cooling of the oceans? I mean these oceans are use to temps in the 60's this time of year. I would think this would have some effect on Hurricane season cooling.
Yeah suppression is definitely the last thing I would be concerned with at this range. What the EURO showed at 0z is up there with December 1983 and January 1985 type cold, which tells you how rare it is how unlikely a solution like that is to verify
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
I haven’t seen the blues this deep for Central VA at this range in a long time.
Maybe Superior, but the coldest air is initially west of the Great Lakes then, after a few days of extreme cold, a 'warm front' approaches from the north, lol.
The crazy thing is Hudson Bay is still about half open going into January.
Imo it's the concern you have to have in a cold enso year when you get these big blocking events but don't have the STJ to offset the overbearing cold and dry. That said the only real super suppressed run so far has been last nights euro even it was probably gearing up to make a run at something massive after the cold drop at the end. Just quickly going through the individual eps members from 0z there are multiple frames that have 985-1000mb lows scattered across the deep South, northern Gulf, and off of the SE coast
Total qpf.
Doesn't look impressive but it would likely have been an uncharacteristically high ratio event so that's probably a widespread .5-2/3 inch snow
Euro was trying its best to max out the 500mb scale. Also, it had some mid/upper -20’s down into the southern apps around Highland and Cashiers. -30+ degree 850’s into Tennessee. Wild run.
iGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
CAD regions could be getting an incoming.
Some of the definitives being said about this period are absolutely asinine when it is still this far out and there's this much (as expected) volatility.
Gfs about to cook on cold like the 0z euro as long as it doesn't try to drop west
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I counted 30% of GEFS members at 6z with events that had WSW criteria
iGRXY
Member
Pumping a big -NAO with a slow progression with the big Arctic front. S/W coming down the Rockies ….
CMC tries to cook some on the weekend timeframe
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The CMC was about to be a big storm post 240
it would be impressive if we screwed this look up
CMC with two periods of light snow during the 1/3 to 1/6 window.
So much potential with such a large window. Energy is flying around everywhere.
Regardless of when, our chances of seeing flakes flying considering the pattern and number of chances are the highest they have been in a very long time IMO.
iGRXY
Member
