Im still concerned about too much PJ but maybe that's just me
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
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iGRXY
Member
Me, it’s winter. We roast 8 months out of the year
JQPublic
Member
I’m a nature boy and the native plants and trees need a good deep freeze every once in a while to prevent disease.
Also what were the 4 analog years?
Also what were the 4 analog years?
weather bubba
Member
I'm not Ric Flair but I'm a nature boy too. I love the outdoors and we need a deep freeze not only to prevent disease in plants but also to kill off some of the pesky insects that come out during the year like mosquitoes, ticks, fleas and biting flies.
griteater
Member
That just speaks to how things have to line up just right cause we have posts in here concerned about the jet being too weak and dumping the trough in the west (GFS), then the complete opposite concern of it being too strong (AI) with another GOAK low. Think we can ride with the ensemble mean ideas for now
The indices look good:
PNA - Looks to stay positive now through the LR (nearly all the runs now positive). GOOD
NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR. GOOD
AO - Still looks to fall off the cliff negative. GOOD
PNA - Looks to stay positive now through the LR (nearly all the runs now positive). GOOD
NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR. GOOD
AO - Still looks to fall off the cliff negative. GOOD
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Almost that time of the year again. Could see some rumbles of thunder &/or severe weather this weekend as we turn the page into 2025
years-Jan '10, '11, '14, '18
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Considering the upcoming pattern, won’t be surprised if the “snow 10 days after thunder in the winter” comes true.
GFS was cold & does the usual for the areas that have scored the last few Winters.. But probably the coldest GFS run we've seen in several days.
The EPS/GEFS generally agree on this look. Big piece of energy diving into the NW conus…with arctic and Atlantic blocking established.
Been so long since we had something like this…how does this work
Been so long since we had something like this…how does this work
If that look does hold, it would surprising if we aren’t tracking something by this time next weekThe EPS/GEFS generally agree on this look. Big piece of energy diving into the NW conus…with arctic and Atlantic blocking established.
Been so long since we had something like this…how does this work
View attachment 156685
I just don't think we will have the cold air establish for most on here in that period. Not trying to be negative, but I personally don't think the first weekend of January (give or take a day) is our storm if there is one. It could be for some though. I think our opportunity comes several days into January.The EPS/GEFS generally agree on this look. Big piece of energy diving into the NW conus…with arctic and Atlantic blocking established.
Been so long since we had something like this…how does this work
View attachment 156685
I still think the more climatologically favored areas score first (N of 40ish) and the second storm might focus on the others
Yep, totally agree. And if you think about it, normally some of our best Winters work out like that.
Jessy89
Member
Looks like a true 85 event. If anything at all but ensemble still favor something
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Got the frame to the west?