Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

[John1122]

That Euro run keeps most of Tennessee below 0 for nearly 48 hours. My high is -6 with a low of -15 on the 10th/11th.

We've been that cold at night in my area, but it's rare air to stay below 0 in the day and I don't recall a high below -2 before.

 

[iGRXY]

Just an FYI, the mean has temps in the low 20's and below freezing for most of this so ratios would be higher than what the EPS can show

 

[DixieBlizzard]

I think it was late December in 1989 when I lived in the Birmingham area that I remember it being in the single digits during the day. I know the rather large ponds by Hwy 280 in that Meadowbrook Business park completely freezing with solid ice. It was as arid as a desert. No precip. Maybe this one will be accompanied with some snow?

 

[jrips27]

6 degrees below 0 in Atlanta at 1pm ?

Sorry realizing the dash was confusing. It’s 6 degrees. Not negative 6 lol

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 157009
Just an FYI, the mean has temps in the low 20's and below freezing for most of this so ratios would be higher than what the EPS can show

What in the world? SW of Panama City, over the GOM has snow on the mean. That may be a first. Haha

 

[Stormsfury]

What in the world? SW of Panama City, over the GOM has snow on the mean. That may be a first. Haha

Not really. Likely Gulf Effect Snow

 

[iGRXY]

What in the world? SW of Panama City, over the GOM has snow on the mean. That may be a first. Haha

You start getting 1.5" means this far out all the way down to I20 and that's a big . Especially the upstate, North Georgia, and NC

 

[SimeonNC]

I wonder if sound effect snow would be possible for the obx with that much cold air over the region

 

[Arcc]

Not really. Likely Gulf Effect Snow

I’ve seen some nutty long range looks in the past, but that one is certainly up there.

 

[SimeonNC]

Does anyone have the EPS 850 anomaly maps?

 

[griteater]

Does anyone have the EPS 850 anomaly maps?

EPS 850 T Anoms for Jan 6-12

 

[griteater]

EPS Member Snow Totals

 

[TheBatman]

James Spann has saved untold thousands of lives. However, winter stuff isn’t really his forte.

Then he post this on the same evening. Lol

 

[jrips27]

EPS Member Snow Totals

1 inch probabilities

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS for some reason still is interesting for this timeframe. Most models show this system being a cutter

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 157017View attachment 157018View attachment 157019EPS for some reason still is interesting for this timeframe. Most models show this system being a cutter

Wouldn’t shock me if this thing trends south in time given the trend with the -NAO block getting stronger, note it’s becoming more west based, its resulting in a more wound up SE Canada vortex, and is slowing the traffic down allowing more time for amplification/digging with the energy in the plains. Probably why the EPS is showing some hits with this system
This -NAO trend continues through the EPS run, and with the main miller A course. Note not much changes the the Aleutian low/western ridge axis with some slight shifts west, but the west based -NAO trending stronger which is slowing down the flow and allowing more westward digging and holding more - heights around Atlantic Canada

 

[Carolina Jones]

EPS Member Snow Totals

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22 with snow here and most of those are some big hits. My interest is peeked.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Yeah mega cold blast on the Euro run

Holy smokes! That’s some major cold air moving into the SE, just noticed the Euro maxed out the WB minimum temperature scale by 11 degrees (-30C!) Just one model run, but it’s been hinting at the potential for some impressive cold for a few days now.


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[NEGaweather]

Wow just wow


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[Tarheel1]

Happy Nee Year from 6z GFS

 

[Tarheel1]

Happy Nee Year from 6z GFSView attachment 157023View attachment 157024

 

[packfan98]

Storm starts around hour 240. Classic SE storm. Here’s the breakdown.

 

[FallsLake]

View attachment 157025View attachment 157026

Here's Kuchera:


And total freezing rain:


Nice to see fantasy storms now popping up

 

[packfan98]

These EPS charts are starting to look like the ones from the northeast look like in the winter. So much potential after week one!

 

[Twister]

These EPS charts are starting to look like the ones from the northeast look like in the winter. So much potential after week one!
View attachment 157033

Do you have one for gsp area?

 

[Webberweather53]

Good golly Miss Molly, the Euro run was something else.

When was the last time you saw sub 500 dam thickness contours on a model forecast over the SE US?

 

[Carolina Jones]

I'm assuming the GFS brought the real cold a little earlier. I didn't think we were looking for anything until after the 11th.

 

[FallsLake]

Good golly Miss Molly, the Euro run was something else.

When was the last time you saw sub 500 dam thickness contours on a model forecast over the SE US?

View attachment 157034

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Haha, these are mid day temps for hr330. I wonder how Florida would handle their freeze warnings. And I wonder if there could be some Gulf Effect snow if a favorable wind direction setups.



Edit:
Looks like it would be close. That would be a great chase to see snow bands coming off the gulf north of Tampa.

 

[1300m]

 

[weather bubba]

What are the MJO phases for the 10th and 11th timeframe when the latest model runs are turning the Southeast into a winter wonderland? It's been a while since I've seen so much potential for winter weather in the RDU area even at more than ten days out. I hope this trend continues and we all can finally see some winter weather.

 

[SimeonNC]

 

[Webberweather53]

The first week of January with the trough to our NW has low end quick hitting clipper potential, with dry/subsident NW flow aloft dominating. Not expecting a whole lot out of that, maybe we get something like we saw in early December if we “boom”.

The 2nd week of January however has true big dog potential as the mean trough axis shifts further west and the +PNA & -NAO have time to cook. Honestly, it’s the best looking pattern for snow that I’ve seen in a long time.

The west-based -NAO, +PNA, and deep longwave trough just inland of the East Coast screams Miller A/coastal cyclone potential. Something we haven’t seen much of after 2010-11.

 

[BullCityWx]

45/50 EPS members is the best I’ve seen since maybe 2018

 

[KyloG]

The first week of January with the trough to our NW has low end quick hitting clipper potential, with dry/subsident NW flow aloft dominating. Not expecting a whole lot out of that, maybe we get something like we saw in early December if we “boom”.

The 2nd week of January however has true big dog potential as the mean trough axis shifts further west and the +PNA & -NAO have time to cook. Honestly, it’s the best looking pattern for snow that I’ve seen in a long time.

The west-based -NAO, +PNA, and deep longwave trough just inland of the East Coast screams Miller A/coastal cyclone potential. Something we haven’t seen much of after 2010-11.

View attachment 157044

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View attachment 157043

Geez...that's legit

 

[KyloG]

The first week of January with the trough to our NW has low end quick hitting clipper potential, with dry/subsident NW flow aloft dominating. Not expecting a whole lot out of that, maybe we get something like we saw in early December if we “boom”.

The 2nd week of January however has true big dog potential as the mean trough axis shifts further west and the +PNA & -NAO have time to cook. Honestly, it’s the best looking pattern for snow that I’ve seen in a long time.

The west-based -NAO, +PNA, and deep longwave trough just inland of the East Coast screams Miller A/coastal cyclone potential. Something we haven’t seen much of after 2010-11.

View attachment 157044

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View attachment 157043

Did I grab this chart off you or Allan...I can't remember. But surprising that phase 1 is so bad for snow in Nina's but looks like week 2 will happen while in ph8 which has the best odds.

 

[Snowlover34]

The first week of January with the trough to our NW has low end quick hitting clipper potential, with dry/subsident NW flow aloft dominating. Not expecting a whole lot out of that, maybe we get something like we saw in early December if we “boom”.

The 2nd week of January however has true big dog potential as the mean trough axis shifts further west and the +PNA & -NAO have time to cook. Honestly, it’s the best looking pattern for snow that I’ve seen in a long time.

The west-based -NAO, +PNA, and deep longwave trough just inland of the East Coast screams Miller A/coastal cyclone potential. Something we haven’t seen much of after 2010-11.

View attachment 157044

View attachment 157042

View attachment 157043

Hey @Webberweather53 do you think us north Alabama folks here in Hazel Green in the tennessee valley has a chance at big dog potential like in the carolina’s?

 

[KyloG]

Even the AI model is trending great.

 

[Webberweather53]

Hey @Webberweather53 do you think us north Alabama folks here in Hazel Green in the tennessee valley has a chance at big dog potential like in the carolina’s?

Everyone in the Southeastern US & Deep South should like their chances with this pattern

 

[AJ1013]

Tampa up to four hits now on the EPS hahaha

 

[Webberweather53]

-30C 850mb temps over TN with the 0C line over Miami. Haven’t seen many fantasy runs that cold ever really