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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
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I can see Athens, GA -.9, Atlanta, 0, Columbus, GA, -.8. So all of these locations will end solidly above average, probably about 1 to 3 degrees. Those 70 degree days did a real number on the averages. Using the Atlanta monthly average of 48, I'm currently at 44, so I might stay at or below average at my Tempest location.
AI model is a storm printer 
I'm kinda convinced that the cold will last so long as there's no moisture to work with,
So if moisture is coming back in day 3,
We warm!
Day 7,
We warm!
Day 20,
We warm!
It can stay cold so long as we don't have moisture is the new norm!
GEFS Vs the AI model centered around the same time
kinda beginning to hate the ai for this reason
From what I have learned from this model is that it could be decent as figuring out a storm signal for a timeframe. It seems like it did pretty well with that in December. What I question big time is if it has some sort of cold bias.
The Euro AI has had mixed results with its long-range ideas over the past month. It was good with the early Dec cold and the current cold snap (although it was too bold with the western ridge), but it was awful with missing the upcoming Gulf of AK low and mild/warm pattern (it wanted to keep western ridging going, a big miss).
Anyway, the last 2 runs have some nice features. Good Greenland blocking with a steady feed of low pressure underneath - has the look of a block that will last more than a day. And with more momentum working across the N Pacific, trying to prevent the cold from staying out west. We can do some damage with these looks
Anyway, the last 2 runs have some nice features. Good Greenland blocking with a steady feed of low pressure underneath - has the look of a block that will last more than a day. And with more momentum working across the N Pacific, trying to prevent the cold from staying out west. We can do some damage with these looks
The first of the 12Z runs, the ICON rejects the GFS idea of a western trough to ring in the New Year and is in alignment with the Euro and CMC. Nice start.
No wasted cold here. #wins
Dang bro. 
We Might be back 
Euro staying consistent believe it or not with a good look at least. Still such a long way to go. Would definitely be more excited if the EPS holds and if the GEFS at least comes back a bit 
Was probably gonna go for round 2 as well with overrunning 
I believe that is 3 runs in a row? We are getting inside 300 hours now lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I don’t put really any stock in operational models that far out, no matter how good their skill scores are. Deterministic forecasts really have no net value beyond 7-10 days lead time (& that’s being generous). I’d be more interested in seeing an AIFS ensemble mean forecast
The GEPS ain't really a fan of the first cold shot/first weekend of January either. But it does drop the hammer shortly after.
This is where the differences occur. The GEFS and EPS disagree on what’s occuring in the GOA. The EPS drops a S/W trough in the GOA that kicks the trough east, which could become a primer for another wave like the euro hints at. The GEFS is flat and stagnant and there’s nothing to kick it so it gets stuck in the SW. EPS about to diverge significantly past this point 
Considering the hold back SW bias that the Euro has, probably see a trend in the future of it holding it back and then trending back east (not sure if it's the range where it does this bias)
EPS doubles down instead of go towards the GEFS.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Large scale retraction and retrogression is basically inevitable at some point, but I doubt it’s as early as the GEFS or GEPS show, let alone a persistent look, at least for now…
Everyone is getting a sneak peak of what things are going to look like later this winter though when the pacific jet really retracts
Everyone is getting a sneak peak of what things are going to look like later this winter though when the pacific jet really retracts
Give us a widespread Winter storm & I can deal with the "see ya tomorrow" weeds by February.
EPS looks good. Really supports the idea of something of interest around that timeframe
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Press x doubt we get a *persistent* western trough this early in January with this background +U, +Mtn torque, and equatorward momentum surge.
High-latitude pacific/Alaska blocking though?
Yes absolutely.
High-latitude pacific/Alaska blocking though?
Yes absolutely.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
This signal has been fairly consistent for a few days now, I’m staying focused more on the ensembles until we get inside 6-7 days.
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EPS looks great to end off. Also cool to watch the return of the TPV near Hudson Bay 
whatalife
Moderator
Best snow mean of the year for the SE as a whole. Will be interesting to see what this looks like around the first of the year.
The GEFS trend, to put it mildly, is not good. Pray it's not onto something because to make matters worse, it delays even Canada from getting below normal.
There's some give and take here. The Greenland blocking ridge just evaporates (ugh - and same on CMC Ens), but we gain the east movement of the N Pac / Aleutian Low and W NAmer ridge complex out in time, with nice bowl trough over the U.S.
EPS has the nice fortification / east punch of the jet at the end, after the initial retraction - GEFS doesn't have as much eastward movement there
Just another day of As The World Turns
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not buying the GEFS here with the way this background state is. Even if we get western troughing, it won’t be all that persistent, til perhaps late month
That -NAO block coincidentally ends during our timeframe of interest on the EC suite and OP EC in general. Makes sense. As the -NAO decays, typically something follows. It’s rare though to go from a favorable Atlantic configuration straight to a favorable Pacific configuration. Been a whileThere's some give and take here. The Greenland blocking ridge just evaporates (ugh - and same on CMC Ens), but we gain the east movement of the N Pac / Aleutian Low and W NAmer ridge complex out in time, with nice bowl trough over the U.S.
EPS has the nice fortification / east punch of the jet at the end, after the initial retraction - GEFS doesn't have as much eastward movement there
Just another day of As The World Turns
lexxnchloe
Member
LC
I have been telling clients and friends alike for about a week now that the predicted "blowtorch" would be like the rest of the big warm-ups predicted since Thanksgiving: quicker, less emphatic and likely not having as strong an impact as what the model guidance suggests. To be sure, once the current transient Arctic regime moves out of the eastern third of the lower 48 states, a notable warm-up will occur. But by New Year's Eve, the "dominoes" will be set up to fall, with likely blocking ridge formation in a -EPO/-AO/-NAO configuration. As in "Alaska/Arctic Canada/Greenland. There is near-complete agreement on this scenario from NWP and analog resources, so confidence is growing on winter returning with a vengeance during the first week-and-a-half of 2025.
Speaking of analogs, I have not changed my comparison years. The presence of a strong subtropical jet stream feeding of a far-west Madden-Julian Oscillation (Phases 2,3,4) will mean increased precipitation chances for Texas and Dixie into the Mid-Atlantic, and possibly New England into the Maritime Provinces as well. Pronounced warm advection into the high latitudes will favor Arctic and polar branches southward, and could create a phasing scenario somewhere between Cape Hatteras NC and the MA Islands. Those of you familiar with winter season climatology will quickly realize this is a "snow track" from the Potomac River into Bay Of Fundy. But I cannot rule out some rain involvement for the Interstate 95 corridor, given the time distance and the fact that air and water temperature measures are vague this far out. Keep in mind that the snow cover in Canada and the Great Lakes is quite impressive, so if a strong enough ridge developed about the North Pole, clear skies and night radiation off of the snowpack implies quick formation/expansion/advection into the lower 48 states, especially to the right of the Continental Divide. "January Thaw" climatology with a negative ENSO (moderate La Nina) suggests January 12 - 22 as the "melting antidote". The last week of January and first of February should return the cold and frozen precipitation chances.
Now for those of you who love heat and tropical systems, most guidance is saying that "summer in spring" is on tap for the Southwest and south central USA in March. Finally....I have some exciting weather to describe
I have been telling clients and friends alike for about a week now that the predicted "blowtorch" would be like the rest of the big warm-ups predicted since Thanksgiving: quicker, less emphatic and likely not having as strong an impact as what the model guidance suggests. To be sure, once the current transient Arctic regime moves out of the eastern third of the lower 48 states, a notable warm-up will occur. But by New Year's Eve, the "dominoes" will be set up to fall, with likely blocking ridge formation in a -EPO/-AO/-NAO configuration. As in "Alaska/Arctic Canada/Greenland. There is near-complete agreement on this scenario from NWP and analog resources, so confidence is growing on winter returning with a vengeance during the first week-and-a-half of 2025.
Speaking of analogs, I have not changed my comparison years. The presence of a strong subtropical jet stream feeding of a far-west Madden-Julian Oscillation (Phases 2,3,4) will mean increased precipitation chances for Texas and Dixie into the Mid-Atlantic, and possibly New England into the Maritime Provinces as well. Pronounced warm advection into the high latitudes will favor Arctic and polar branches southward, and could create a phasing scenario somewhere between Cape Hatteras NC and the MA Islands. Those of you familiar with winter season climatology will quickly realize this is a "snow track" from the Potomac River into Bay Of Fundy. But I cannot rule out some rain involvement for the Interstate 95 corridor, given the time distance and the fact that air and water temperature measures are vague this far out. Keep in mind that the snow cover in Canada and the Great Lakes is quite impressive, so if a strong enough ridge developed about the North Pole, clear skies and night radiation off of the snowpack implies quick formation/expansion/advection into the lower 48 states, especially to the right of the Continental Divide. "January Thaw" climatology with a negative ENSO (moderate La Nina) suggests January 12 - 22 as the "melting antidote". The last week of January and first of February should return the cold and frozen precipitation chances.
Now for those of you who love heat and tropical systems, most guidance is saying that "summer in spring" is on tap for the Southwest and south central USA in March. Finally....I have some exciting weather to describe
I’m gonna go with the GEFS. It is obviously taking account of the newly discovered WSSW(Winter Sucks in South East) index.
Euro Weekly Jan 8-15.
Cold with wintry chances if true. Cold Season Complaining Thread if false
Cold with wintry chances if true. Cold Season Complaining Thread if false
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m not getting hyper fixated or overly worried about one ensemble run, especially when it’s likely to be a temporary look even if it verifies, and not supported by the background state either
GFS still insisting that winter is cancelled. 
The Euro AI continues to be mouth watering. Split flow, Heavy West -NAO couplet, Cold air surging south. Pac jet moving east to keep the trough out of the west. Consider it on the high end of what could happen I suppose
