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Pattern Jarring January

00z gefs
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Well. Looking over my Tabular data for Lexington, SC. The German model, that was a failure for Thurs/Fri has the New Years Storm (at least here)
 
Hey!! Low in the gulf!!! Great news!!! Other than that not really sure what that map says... haha. And a monster cold high pressure!
 
And hey, while we are at it. The Serbian Mos tabular data shows a storm here for New Years Day too.

Not that these models will verifiy or anything, lol.
 
The UKMET looks a lot better than it would make you believe on earlier maps. I don't have temps, but check this out for our New Years deal:
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With that run of the UKMET and if the Euro starts showing more, maybe we should do a thread to talk about the storm, since it's dominating this discussion thread. Very little pattern talk in here.
 
Euro still having problems, im not waiting up. tired
 
Also low is in the perfect place. Plus the high is just little weaker this run.
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Wish we would have had the Euro tonight to make a thread maybe; ugh!

GFS is adamant, and some of the main parts are within the next 60 hours or less. Interesting.
 
Well, if the data isn't messed up; Euro has accumulating snow For GA, SC, and NC. But I don't trust it from this source, will wait to see if hte data is broken or not. It "magically" appeared on my end.
 
Euro snow-depth (what sticks around) through 1/04/18:
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Shawn said:
Euro snow-depth (what sticks around) through 1/04/18:
euro01.png
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Whatever source it's from, looks a lot better than nothing, like it showed last run! Maybe time for a thread!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Whatever source it's from, looks a lot better than nothing, like it showed last run! Maybe time for a thread!?
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Quite possibly. I say start it if the 12z GFS holds on to it later this morning. It's become the focal point of this thread now, so it likely needs to be on it's own to likely fail like the Thurs/Friday event; Lol.
 
Finally got some vort maps, and notice the snowfall on the Euro is not from the energy for the New Years idea the GFS has. That wave never dives, which therefore, GFS is still on it's own right now with that idea.

The snow comes around the 3rd-4th instead.
 
Shawn said:
Finally got some vort maps, and notice the snowfall on the Euro is not from the energy for the New Years idea the GFS has. That wave never dives, which therefore, GFS is still on it's own right now with that idea.

The snow comes around the 3rd-4th instead.
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I personally think that wave or the one behind it has the best shot to give us a good hit here in the SE US, and has been consistently in the EPS for the past several days or so. However, the Euro technically had the storm the GFS shows near New Years with snow falling around Charleston. Well we at least have the GFS, Euro, UKMET, & German with at least something in the past run or two.:. Should name the next thread New Tears instead of New Years because our hearts are likely to get broken
 
6z GFS maintains a pretty cold pattern virtually through the end of the run. The expected flip to winter cancel may not be as easy as we were anticipating.
 
It's the GFS, and I am going to say that anytime someone post a GFS comment after 24 hours out. A model this bad deserves it! (don't know why this is all bolded, I didn't do it!)
 
packfan98 said:
For those wanting to get caught up on any potential winter weather, Matthew East's daily video is a great place to start:
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Matt just doing his thing by making great videos all year long :)
Would be sad not to score on one of these.


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Storm5 said:
Eps loves the second system next week
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Yep, and If you think about it, ignore everything up until then, because that is right at a pattern change point. Storms like to come out of the end of a pattern, not in the middle of one. It's going to be cold beforehand though.
 
I hope that one of these upcoming “threats” turns into something. We will have created the almost ideal background environment for a snowstorm: Short days, low sun angle, very cold antecedent ground temps, snow cover to the north and west, and a bitterly cold air mass over us or on the doorstep. The ONLY thing we need for the perfect winter storm is snow!!
 
The CFS for January looks like hot garbage though. How do the Weeklies look? Haven’t seen any posts about them, so I assume they still look like trash too.
 
00z euro has the wave in NW and sends it over the top of the ridge which is a change and it’s what the gfs has been doing all along . Didn’t dig the wave and it was absorbed into the northern stream. Huge improvement vs previous runs
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ForsythSnow said:
Yep, and If you think about it, ignore everything up until then, because that is right at a pattern change point. Storms like to come out of the end of a pattern, not in the middle of one. It's going to be cold beforehand though.
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Can still easily get a system around New Years. In fact I’m a little more optimistic now after seeing the changes on the 00z euro
 
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