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Pattern February 2024

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????
 
LukeBarrette said:
sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

Clipper snow is a way to score
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anafrontal hell :mad:

it's an ok look that other models hinted at, but i don't think it would go much further south. any more digging/better tilt would probably mean more warmth for SE. let me put it this way in terms of my location- if this trended towards more precip i think it would be a "me" storm and not a "yall" storm.

cut off as some models hinted at is another way to skin the cat but has skinnier margin for error and you'd be working with a stale cold air mass beginning to modify.

not promising as of now but i mean there is a southern vort and cold air i still think the window beats monitoring
 
Marksnownosnow said:
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Wow…. F off, The Mid- Atlantic is gonna score again and still whine. Luckiest region on earth. “Ohhh it’s not 3 feet we aren’t interested “ eat a ----. Like UNC fans when they don’t win a title dude I’d love to even be in the game much less win


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
Wow…. F off, The Mid- Atlantic is gonna score again and still whine. Luckiest region on earth. “Ohhh it’s not 3 feet we aren’t interested “ eat a ----. Like UNC fans when they don’t win a title dude I’d love to even be in the game much less win


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Southern Mid-Atlantic is not included in this conversation ?
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Wow…. F off, The Mid- Atlantic is gonna score again and still whine. Luckiest region on earth. “Ohhh it’s not 3 feet we aren’t interested “ eat a ----. Like UNC fans when they don’t win a title dude I’d love to even be in the game much less win


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Ok. Perhaps you didn't see what thread your were in?
 
NCSNOW said:
If you are thinking about punting winter away, like I did yesterday. Whatever you do, don't go look at the 0Z CFS for March. The "Delayed but not Denied" quote has big legs to stand on.
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I hope CFS has a clue “it usually don’t “ Alan Huffman had nothing encouraging to say about the rest of the way in this morning. Alan below.

With this the forecast look on 2/28, it would take several days at least to flip this pattern colder which takes us well into the 1st week of March. While snow in March in the Southeast/mid-Atlantic is certainly not impossible it is not super common either and with this look to start March it may be time to declare winter over (as far as chances for any widespread winter storms) for the Southeast at least and even perhaps the mid-Atlantic.
The weeklies which have performed below par this winter, do show a mostly mild look in week 3. The GEFS-extended may have the most realistic look.


For now, until we see a colder look in the day 14-16 ensembles and see those push forward, I think we should favor a mild/warmer than normal pattern for the Central/East through at least the 1st half of March. Severe weather season is already approaching.


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ILMRoss said:
i'm keeping an eye on this for my advantaged latitude and i think you should too
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Yeah, it had this current storm for several days out and all the other models where all over the place it stood it’s ground on where it was going to snow. Did a great job! Who knows may be the only one it gets right. Lol


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More snowpack to our north with this day 4 deal for the MA/NE...does that help us?

Looks like the dam has finally busted for NYC. And somehow the MA crew just keeps cranking out events in a horrific winter for most.

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KyloG said:
More snowpack to our north with this day 4 deal for the MA/NE...does that help us?

Looks like the dam has finally busted for NYC. And somehow the MA crew just keeps cranking out events in a horrific winter for most.

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Man how does Boston feel this morning. 10-15 inches in the forecast as late as yesterday for them
 
Plenty cold too...alright, now I'm ready for a blowtorch pattern after this.

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If this little northern stream vort max can just come in a little further west and a tick stronger than depicted, it would phase with the southern stream disturbance earlier and we'd have something here. That's really pretty close with only hints of that N/S energy on other modeling though.
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Wild Weather Monger said:
If this little northern stream vort max can just come in a little further west and a tick stronger than depicted, it would phase with the southern stream disturbance earlier and we'd have something here. That's really pretty close with only hints of that N/S energy on other modeling though.
gem_z500_vort_us_21.png
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I get the pessimism from many but it’s not likely the models have this nailed 120hrs out, plenty of time to trend better or worse. Seeing a flake for the first time in 2 years is a win so I’ll keep tracking until it’s dry and 45
 
superjames1992 said:
Probably would be snow if precip got to the NC Piedmont, but without a great cold air source, it’ll be 32-34 degree slopfest that struggles to stick and continually melts from underneath once it does. But I guess beggars can’t be choosers.

I do think this one has legs. Probably well under a 50/50 proposition, but what isn’t around here?
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Wait…are we getting sucked in again? We sure are a glutton for punishment.
 
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