step 1, clog the Atlantic up. Step 2 now is retrograding those lower heights in the pacific to introduce colder air back in the pattern 
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Pattern December 2023
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like the target date for below average temperatures and a more favorable pattern for winter weather chances in the SE starts 12/28 on recent model runs. Let’s see if we can get that to hold. That’s getting into prime climo for early January. fingers crossed!
NCSNOW
Member
Or maybe start it a few days earlier, Not so much to get snow, but we don't torch Christmas Day like it was looking a couple days ago.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Ran into a graupel shower heading into the office this morning.
NoSnowATL
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NoSnowATL
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All I see is improvement Christmas and beyond on the ENS. It’s not the final product we want, and not close, but the right direction. Clogging up the Atlantic and undercutting first is key 
Itryatgolf
Member
I'm hoping for more improvement moving forward as well
Yeah definitely looking a lot better than a few days ago. I still think that it will take a couple weeks once the pattern change starts to get things right for a winter storm in the south, but if things start just after Christmas we could have things primed and ready for peak climo.
tennessee storm
Member
Not trying be Debbie downer any means. Even that look looks transient cold to me, better then nothing
You’re right. Like Fro said, it’s by no means what we want to get to, but it’s a step in the right direction. The biggest thing about that look is that you won’t see our source regions continue to get flooded with Pacific air
NCSNOW
Member
GFS loves to run lows up to our west constantly. One thing ive noticed when thumbing through 360hr runs 4x a day. Getting a good steady sample diet with the active Southern Stream Jet cranking storms out every 4-5 days.
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Maybe we eventually warm up but for now ?
lexxnchloe
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NCSNOW
Member
Can you imagine the meltdown if this weekends storm would have had enough cold air. We started the coastal storm thread this was a ride the coast. Now its shifted to an Apps Runner. Fear the NW trend when tracking this year
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NoSnowATL
Member
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
How about Round 2 on the 30th??
We need to build the Ark it seems
JHS
Member
It has started to shift back to the east. We still get lots of rain, but I wonder just how far east it will shift. This could still be only a coastal storm with the center out over the gulf stream.
NoSnowATL
Member
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
LOL, it goes from nothing to 4"+ in a span of 100 miles in AL.
W
WSW
Guest
That phase early next week, on the euro brings one of the colder airmasses this year so far to the Carolina’s. It’s quick but next Tuesday highs barely make it to 40. That’s a pretty chilly day, for the pattern that we’re in. Lol 
Canadian is interesting for Christmas Eve:
12z on the 24th:
2m temps at 12z on the 24th:
Not sure if the high would lock in for us, but still an interesting look.
Still needs work but still seeing signs of something better 
Worth noting the -SCAND showing up, is basically an anti-southeast ridge correlation. No signs of the southeast ridge anytime soon. -NAO development might be a different from usual in the next couple of weeks, not off a retrogression from a Scandinavian ridge as usual. My only concern with delaying the pattern, is another jet extension or added momentum into the pacific jet to end out December. But the EPS is certainly encouraging. Slowly going poleward with the WCAN ridge and starting to back stuff in Asia. The overall storm track looks favorable under the Canadian block, we just gotta retrograde the WCAN ridge enough to get some northern stream help or injection of cold. When the Canadian ridge starts to back up NW, always got to watch for northern stream diving down into the NE US. Something to watch. This type of pattern would actually be a good one if we were exiting a legit Arctic outbreak or legit cold dump. But we gotta work with this look for now. Hopefully AK ridging shows up soon, or at least a ridge axis directly over the NW territories. But for now, there’s not much of any cold air to work with this look.
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SnowNiner
Member
Just need to clockwise rotate everything 1000 miles and we're golden. Man, that pacific vortex needs to get off the coast, soon as it does were in a good place if it can hold.
Think what’s makes it better to, is that we are actually following a normal Nino progression, that typically happens the later it gets, the pac trough normally backs off. It’s harder to get a legit -EPO in a Nino Vs a nina, but far easier to get a western ridge/NW Canada ridge Vs a nina.
I’m in the fail boat with you. I thought +5-6 degrees was a lock going into the month. I honestly thought earlier last weekend that things would definitely trend warmer here late week. Well we’re here now and about to have a 3rd night this week down in the 20s and will possibly have a 4th tomorrow night if the clouds don’t move in early enough. As much as I’ve looked at the 500mb maps and thought we should torch, I guess JB is right with one of his sayings… we don’t live at 500mb
GoDuke
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
El Nino split flow with central and west Canadian ridging here on the Euro Control days 10-15
Something to look at. EPS has a nice +3 sigma +PNA. It’s not a bad H5 pattern. But dang there’s just no cold. The EPS control is a good example of the struggles we’d have to deal with, due to Canada being nuked from the pac jet. But at least ensembles are looking better 
That's kind of the concern I have. There's a nice signal for lower anomalies in the south/southeast and ridging in Canada, but until we get a solid signal for some legit cold being injected into the pattern, most of us are going to be on the outside looking in. At least the shetleydrought won't crop up anytime soon.
Here’s a comparison to the failed Miller B setup last year that had models bumping for a while until it got closer, and the H5 pattern being modeled. It’s definitely not a shutout pattern by any means, but it’s one that has a lot working against us
It's kind of remarkable to me that we're even having the conversation given the big trough off the west coast, but I think the sneaky factor here is the El Nino induced low height pattern from Baja to Florida. Less SE ridge type La Nina influence. So a well-timed cold shot over the Northeast gets us closer
This is why I’ve said that it would probably take 10 days or so after a pattern change to get in a better position for winter storm possibilities… Canada getting flooded with mild air is always going to be an issue. Like you say though, it’s definitely not a guaranteed shut out pattern. We are going into the time of year where marginal cold can work and make for some decent storms… if we had just some marginal cold to work with this coming weekend, we would both be getting the shovels and sleds ready