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Pattern December 2023

SD said:
Not sure that sfc-925 will play along but if we can get enough LL cold to hop the mountains there's a shot
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If it had dug another 75 miles, we would've had something this run, imo. It's enough to keep me watching. Only thing i'm concerned about is drying up before the cold makes it.
 
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KyloG said:
Textbook for the MA folks…ala 2010


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Leaning that way for sure.
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Week 2 of December looks warm, but worth noting, the pattern that showing up is a SPV destroying pattern, notably the +SCAND, prior to this there’s a ton of Bering sea troughing. Normally our SPV destroying patterns, are warm patterns for the SE US. End of December/early jan is lining up imo for some fun 7DC664B3-5EE5-4C40-87A9-ED05C7116FE0.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Week 2 of December looks warm, but worth noting, the pattern that showing up is a SPV destroying pattern, notably the +SCAND, prior to this there’s a ton of Bering sea troughing. Normally our SPV destroying patterns, are warm patterns for the SE US. End of December/early jan is lining up imo for some fun View attachment 138255
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we got "this time period a month from now looks really great" posts folks we are BACK
 
ILMRoss said:
we got "this time period a month from now looks really great" posts folks we are BACK
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West pacific forcing arriving later half of December (8/1) and persistent +SCAND signal (-NAO precursor if it returns back to +, which I doubt given the state of the SPV in the next couple of weeks) with a weaker then normal vortex, hard to not get interested in that time period. Can already see signs in the pacific at day 7 with the poleward shift/cutoff block that develops near the Arctic
 
LukeBarrette said:
On high alert trust me
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NW flow is always undermodeled on medium range models like the GFS. My professor has said time and time again the banding is always farther east then what they say depict. This is easily 1-3 accums (with luck in the banding department) in Blacksburg with this look.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
West pacific forcing arriving later half of December (8/1) and persistent +SCAND signal (-NAO precursor if it returns back to +, which I doubt given the state of the SPV in the next couple of weeks) with a weaker then normal vortex, hard to not get interested in that time period. Can already see signs in the pacific at day 7 with the poleward shift/cutoff block that develops near the Arctic
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I just looked at the MJO progression and I think you’re right. It looks like we’re going to be going into strengthening -NAO/-AO/+PNA combo at the same time that the MJO is head into phase 8/1 approaching prime climatology. That would probably the best look at that time of the year since 2010/2011 and we all know what happened between 12/25-1/12 that year.
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 138256
NW flow is always undermodeled on medium range models like the GFS. My professor has said time and time again the banding is always farther east then what they say depict. This is easily 1-3 accums (with luck in the banding department) in Blacksburg with this look.
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This NWF thing is still a foreign concept to me. Being from the SC midlands, NWF = no precipitation, no clouds and relatively mild temperatures.
 
Rain Cold said:
18z GFS isn't all that enthusiastic about a super warm first half of December. But it's the GFS.
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None of the ensembles are and quite frankly, I am surprised. I really thought that with the strong El Niño, that a well above average first half of December was pretty much a lock. Yes there’s definitely some mild days in there, but there’s also some average to slightly below days in there as well. Also something else that im seeing that I really like is that cold air continues to build in Canada and it’s not getting flooded with Pacific air.
 
Chazwin said:
None of the ensembles are and quite frankly, I am surprised. I really thought that with the strong El Niño, that a well above average first half of December was pretty much a lock. Yes there’s definitely some mild days in there, but there’s also some average to slightly below days in there as well. Also something else that im seeing that I really like is that cold air continues to build in Canada and it’s not getting flooded with Pacific air.
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There's a tendency to reduce an unquantifiable body down to a series of index values and analogs. While that's helpful and can often provide a general guide, there is a lot more about the atmosphere and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand.

I think there's something to the fact that almost the entire ocean is above normal. I think there's something to the fact that the warmest anomalies are migrating west. I think there's something to the fact that we're in a generally warmer climate now.

Anyway, there's a lot going on.
 
Chazwin said:
None of the ensembles are and quite frankly, I am surprised. I really thought that with the strong El Niño, that a well above average first half of December was pretty much a lock. Yes there’s definitely some mild days in there, but there’s also some average to slightly below days in there as well. Also something else that im seeing that I really like is that cold air continues to build in Canada and it’s not getting flooded with Pacific air.
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That probably jus going set up a suppresion pattern. Down the road more likely …. We don’t need a true artic air mass
 
Rain Cold said:
There's a tendency to reduce an unquantifiable body down to a series of index values and analogs. While that's helpful and can often provide a general guide, there is a lot more about the atmosphere and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand.

I think there's something to the fact that almost the entire ocean is above normal. I think there's something to the fact that the warmest anomalies are migrating west. I think there's something to the fact that we're in a generally warmer climate now.

Anyway, there's a lot going on.
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This is also not a canonical Strong El Nino. Looking at the surface temperatures rather than the anomalies, most of the heat is centered just east of the dateline, much further west than the Super El Nino of 2015-16 or 1997-98.

The Westward shift of the temperatures creates a tendency for tropical forcing to be further west, much like a Modoki or Central El Nino of 2009-10. Those Ninos tend to be blockier in nature, which we are already seeing set up with the -NAO in early December.
 
Rain Cold said:
There's a tendency to reduce an unquantifiable body down to a series of index values and analogs. While that's helpful and can often provide a general guide, there is a lot more about the atmosphere and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand.

I think there's something to the fact that almost the entire ocean is above normal. I think there's something to the fact that the warmest anomalies are migrating west. I think there's something to the fact that we're in a generally warmer climate now.

Anyway, there's a lot going on.
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Agreed! Warm oceans = cold continents -JB
 
tennessee storm said:
That probably jus going set up a suppresion pattern. Down the road more likely …. We don’t need a true artic air mass
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That’s why I always prefer getting cold air to build up over Canada to tap into as opposed to a long duration cross polar flow from Siberia. Typically if we’re depending on an airmass of Siberian origin, then we run the strong risk of all the energy and moisture getting squashed deep down into the GOM… that happens less often with “homegrown” cold air masses
 
SWVAwxfan said:
This NWF thing is still a foreign concept to me. Being from the SC midlands, NWF = no precipitation, no clouds and relatively mild temperatures.
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The NW flow or upslope is what gives places like Wise/Norton in far SW VA a good portion of their snow totals. Wise averages 47 inches a Winter and in the higher elevations its more like 70+.
 
It looks like the drought will go on in much of the Carolinas for a while. The GFS just keeps getting drier and some of us may not get a drop out of this event. VA also dry too. Still in a LaNina pattern and I think a lot of winter forecasts are in trouble.
 
Dew point has gone from 38 up to 56 in just the last couple of hours it's already very juicy outside this has a feel of an over performer for the coastal areas tonight and tomorrow
 
JHS said:
It looks like the drought will go on in much of the Carolinas for a while. The GFS just keeps getting drier and some of us may not get a drop out of this event. VA also dry too. Still in a LaNina pattern and I think a lot of winter forecasts are in trouble.
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Maybe you should look at other models besides the GFS.
 
A deep-layer SWLY flow with a right entrance region of upper
divergence associated with a 120-140 kt 300-mb jet will be the main
source of forcing. Isentropic lift along a strengthening warm front
should produce widespread convection across the Deep South starting
early Saturday morning. Unfortunately, the result is that confidence
on PoPs Saturday is on the low side. The 12z guidance has trended
toward the 06z GFS in that area of upstream convection/heavy
rain across central AL/GA robbing moisture transport into our
area. Overall, QPF has been cut back significantly, especially in
the northeastern half of the forecast area. Despite the trends,
there is still a chance the models are struggling with convective
feedback issues, and we could still have pretty decent coverage of
rain showers thru the day. So have only trimmed back PoPs slightly,
mostly along and north of I-40. With that said, if heavy rain does
form to our SW, we could see a pronounced lull in precip Saturday
aftn. As the in-situ wedge weakens, temps should warm into the upper
50s to lower 60s, despite cloudy skies and periods of light rain.

GSP cutting way back now on precip. At least it'll be warm for a few days.
 
Chazwin said:
Maybe you should look at other models besides the GFS.
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To be fair they all have cut back for the areas that need it in mine and his area. I know this is just a localized area and the southeast is starting to feel the effects of El Nino but so far getting it to rain here is like pulling g teeth. Reminds me of snow the closer in you get. Totals get slashed until there's very little if any
 
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