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Pattern October 2023 Thread

Yuck! I'll take the 60s/70s please. Actually the average high for October in NW Virginia is around 65-66. IAD is 68/44 I believe.
You’re in Myrtle Beach though… the average high there is in the 70s for most of the month
 
CMC has it too. haha
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_40.png
STJ getting hot
 
Like I mentioned yesterday, just a quick cool shot with a +pna spike
That's typically always the case in the Southeast this time of the year though. Heck, that's normally the case anytime of the year in the South.
 
You’re in Myrtle Beach though… the average high there is in the 70s for most of the month
Well, temporarily in Florida rn. But yeah, I think the averages are 76/54 in Myrtle. Hoping to sell properties and move back further North though.
 
Very interesting to see what's on the backside of the initial trough. If the pac jet doesn't accelerate and extend to break down the western ridge it'll be easy to go right into more of a classic cold season nino look with a split flow off of the west coast, jet undercutting the ridge across the southern US and the northern jet rounding the top of the ridge and diving into the eastern US. If we extend the jet it'll be easy to go warm but we could clog up the north Atlantic and try to get into a ugly -nao/-pna couple. Good times
 
Day 10 dew points on the 12z GFS would suggest a chance of our first frost. The forecasted 2m temps are showing ~15 degrees warmer, but I bet if these dew points verify those surface temps will be lower. Still far out but something to watch.

Day 10 dew points:
1695931593737.png
 
I believe a pattern change is definitely coming. My bees have been pretty much been pretty calm for the past few weeks with all the wild flowers blooming. This morning they are different, much more vigor and I was just chased out of the bee yard. I thought it was a robbing situation, but I’m not seeing that fight, just very anxious, aggressive work while bringing in a ton of pollen.
 
Last night’s Euro wasn’t all that cold for all too long before the ridge is back but better than nothing I guess. Not great trends for cold but good trends for nice weather.


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Last night’s Euro wasn’t all that cold for all too long before the ridge is back but better than nothing I guess. Not great trends for cold but good trends for nice weather.


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Yeah I think the looks have been that this is a fairly quick little cool spell.
 
Watering grass in Oct sucks. Front next weekend is the only chance for the next 10 days than that setup often jumps my back yard with down sloping and lee trough. Jeeze.
 
The 12z GFS continues the look. Here are the midafternoon surface temps on Sunday:
1696194929216.png

Dew points at the same time:
1696195138288.png

This would be the first of those great SE fall days, where you hunt out sunny spots because it's too cool in the shade.
 
The 12z GFS continues the look. Here are the midafternoon surface temps on Sunday:
View attachment 137312

Dew points at the same time:
View attachment 137313

This would be the first of those great SE fall days, where you hunt out sunny spots because it's too cool in the shade.
Yep. Perfect Fall weather. I remember days like this at home. Low 50's some sun, but mostly clouds. Nice.
 
The 12z GFS continues the look. Here are the midafternoon surface temps on Sunday:
View attachment 137312

Dew points at the same time:
View attachment 137313

This would be the first of those great SE fall days, where you hunt out sunny spots because it's too cool in the shade.
It is too warm and a bit muggy right now for my Fall taste. I cannot wait for this front! ??
 
Might need to water the grass with that look.
My sister lives down in Orlando. So far summer has held on strong up to this point. But it looks like a "real" cold front (FALL!!) is coming for this weekend.

18z GFS surface temps at midafternoon Sunday:
1696285389992.png

Dew points for the same time:
1696285458530.png
 
Watering grass in Oct sucks. Front next weekend is the only chance for the next 10 days than that setup often jumps my back yard with down sloping and lee trough. Jeeze.
Im with you. Trying to beat the frost after having to wait forever for hot wx grass to call it quits. Small window for the ole rye grass to get going this year. Plenty of money lying around for the water bill, with Gas and Food so cheap LOL. Priorities!
 
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