Cutoffs and wedges are the only thing that can keep the first 10 days or so seasonal otherwise it's warm. Mjo should get out of the MC by the first week of the month so we may see the pattern start to change around 10/10-10/15
Wouldn’t shock me if we get a quick cold shot as the pacific trough gets back in place around mid month, get a quick shot of +PNA, then we overextend the pacific jet past mid month and go back to warmCutoffs and wedges are the only thing that can keep the first 10 days or so seasonal otherwise it's warm. Mjo should get out of the MC by the first week of the month so we may see the pattern start to change around 10/10-10/15
Might as well get the winter pattern going in full force.EPS has no sort of look that supports a cold front thru hour 360… goes from eastern ridge to CONUS ridge to end off View attachment 137231View attachment 137232View attachment 137233View attachment 137234
Warm falls are the best! The longer we have to wait on the cold, the better! Who wants 15-20 below normal in October, it’s a complete waste! Loving this lookEPS has no sort of look that supports a cold front thru hour 360… goes from eastern ridge to CONUS ridge to end off View attachment 137231View attachment 137232View attachment 137233View attachment 137234
I know from my time in the Navy that 90s in California, even in Northern California is not an unusual occurrence.90s looking like a good bet for the lower southwest and maybe over central Cuba.
View attachment 137249
Still dry, but that would be nice for temps. It would not take much to change this to a severe weather episode either. Would be a freeze for the mountains for at least 1 morning with 40's for many of us and 62-68 for highs.View attachment 137264
Will this work?
Yep! Come to papa?Winter is coming View attachment 137265
The 0z Euro was not nearly as drastic as the 0z GFS was. It did show a bit of cool shot coming down into the Midwest but it looks like it was setting up to give more a glancing shot into the southeast. The 0z GFS is basically showing the same thing as the Euro.Crazy change on the models n the day 8 range into the long range in the past twenty four hours.
The Euro was also about to drop the hammer and really get this thing going. 10/10-10/15 has been the time period that we have been looking at to make a flip and this is coming a bit early. It'll probably get pushed back a few days, but still good to see the models getting rid of the eastern ridge.The 0z Euro was not nearly as drastic as the 0z GFS was. It did show a bit of cool shot coming down into the Midwest but it looks like it was setting up to give more a glancing shot into the southeast. The 0z GFS is basically showing the same thing as the Euro.
The Euro was also about to drop the hammer and really get this thing going. 10/10-10/15 has been the time period that we have been looking at to make a flip and this is coming a bit early. It'll probably get pushed back a few days, but still good to see the models getting rid of the eastern ridge.
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I agree. I think it’s headed towards a pattern that has a bunch of days of average temperatures, which in October is very nice.The Euro was also about to drop the hammer and really get this thing going. 10/10-10/15 has been the time period that we have been looking at to make a flip and this is coming a bit early. It'll probably get pushed back a few days, but still good to see the models getting rid of the eastern ridge.
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Yuck! I'll take the 60s/70s please. Actually the average high for October in NW Virginia is around 65-66. IAD is 68/44 I believe.GFS much more muted with the cold at 06z. October is for 80’s.
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Like I mentioned yesterday, just a quick cool shot with a +pna spike