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Pattern October 2023 Thread

SD said:
Cutoffs and wedges are the only thing that can keep the first 10 days or so seasonal otherwise it's warm. Mjo should get out of the MC by the first week of the month so we may see the pattern start to change around 10/10-10/15
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Wouldn’t shock me if we get a quick cold shot as the pacific trough gets back in place around mid month, get a quick shot of +PNA, then we overextend the pacific jet past mid month and go back to warm 0E80DB10-85C6-4B74-BBDA-7890FBB178B4.png
 
We usually get our 1st frost Oct 20th. Usually as result of a 2-3 day quick cool shot,then we struglle into Nov, always bottoming out 38-42 ,until second half month.

I always say, the very best weather of the year in MBY, most pleasant for being outside in the afternoon/ full on sun. Is Mid Oct- Turkey Day week. You can hunt,fish,golf,yardwork,or just hangout. Hard to beat 60 degrees and low DP's
 
What a rush
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Arcc said:
Crazy change on the models n the day 8 range into the long range in the past twenty four hours.
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The 0z Euro was not nearly as drastic as the 0z GFS was. It did show a bit of cool shot coming down into the Midwest but it looks like it was setting up to give more a glancing shot into the southeast. The 0z GFS is basically showing the same thing as the Euro.
 
Chazwin said:
The 0z Euro was not nearly as drastic as the 0z GFS was. It did show a bit of cool shot coming down into the Midwest but it looks like it was setting up to give more a glancing shot into the southeast. The 0z GFS is basically showing the same thing as the Euro.
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The Euro was also about to drop the hammer and really get this thing going. 10/10-10/15 has been the time period that we have been looking at to make a flip and this is coming a bit early. It'll probably get pushed back a few days, but still good to see the models getting rid of the eastern ridge.
500h_anom.na.png

850t_anom.na.png
 
iGRXY said:
The Euro was also about to drop the hammer and really get this thing going. 10/10-10/15 has been the time period that we have been looking at to make a flip and this is coming a bit early. It'll probably get pushed back a few days, but still good to see the models getting rid of the eastern ridge.
500h_anom.na.png

850t_anom.na.png
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Yep. I really don’t care if we stay a degree or two above average because that is still amazing weather, but I want that ridge smashed.
 
iGRXY said:
The Euro was also about to drop the hammer and really get this thing going. 10/10-10/15 has been the time period that we have been looking at to make a flip and this is coming a bit early. It'll probably get pushed back a few days, but still good to see the models getting rid of the eastern ridge.
500h_anom.na.png

850t_anom.na.png
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I agree. I think it’s headed towards a pattern that has a bunch of days of average temperatures, which in October is very nice.
 
lOctober 10 1979 I was living in Western Fairfax County and we had snow on the ground....lol. Up to 10 inches in the Shenandoah Valley!
 
Gotta love watching the Asia to North pac and train go to work and how a bomb S of the aleutians makes or breaks a big cold dump into the US
 
Pretty massive changes in the day 7-10 range as the overall pattern has slowed/amplified on the pacific
 
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