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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

We all have to remember we don't live 18-20k feet (H5) as well. Give me this much high pressure and we will get cold.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's no coincidence that NWP solutions have trended warmer in concert w/ 97W petering out in the West Pacific. GFS operational case in point:
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It is fascinating how much influence a typhoon can have on our wx although it makes sense. I have to give credit to JB for my first learning about a typhoon recurving (continuing W or WNW) tending to correlate with an E US trough (ridge) 6-10 days later.

Do you agree with the trend toward 97L petering out?
 
Well, one unicorn passed up by! The typhoon recurve is busty, a SSW warming event will do the trick! Somebody call Roto-rooter, JBs bathtub is clogged!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Well, one unicorn passed up by! The typhoon recurve is busty, a SSW warming event will do the trick! Somebody call Roto-rooter, JBs bathtub is clogged!
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When you see the happy face on our truck... HILLER!, You'll be confident your drain will be unstuck "HILLER".
Call the happy face truck, today... HILLER!!!
 
Storm5 said:
18z gefs
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Two days before this, the 18Z GEFS mean has a 1050 high at hour 192 over N MT! How often do you see that strong a high on a GEFS mean 8 days out? Also, at the same time, the -EPO ridge is the strongest of the last 4 runs. I realize the overall trends haven't been so good today with too much energy aiming for the SW again which isn't good for SE cold but I wouldn't go to sleep on this just yet.
 
GaWx said:
Two days before this, the 18Z GEFS mean has a 1050 high at hour 192 over N MT! How often do you see that strong a high on a GEFS mean 8 days out? Also, at the same time, the -EPO ridge is the strongest of the last 4 runs. I realize the overall trends haven't been so good today with too much energy aiming for the SW again which isn't good for SE cold but I wouldn't go to sleep on this just yet.
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Larry,
I've set my alarm to take SouthernWx PM's; please message me when it's time to wake up!
LOL ...
Best and Thanks for all you do!
Phil
 
Just out of curiosity, any forum member have local Mets making call maps for possible winter weather this upcoming weekend into the following week? Recently seen a map from a local met out of Gainesville on social media.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I will be dead by Tuesday!
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NWMSGuy said:
Just out of curiosity, any forum member have local Mets making call maps for possible winter weather this upcoming weekend into the following week? Recently seen a map from a local met out of Gainesville on social media.
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Nope. They are talking about temps maybe in the low 70s like in 2015. . I’m more interested in the New Years timeframe.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Just out of curiosity, any forum member have local Mets making call maps for possible winter weather this upcoming weekend into the following week? Recently seen a map from a local met out of Gainesville on social media.
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It's pretty much ridiculous anyone would make a call map in my opinion. Nothing supports any winter weather unless it's ice in Texas or nearby into Arkansas . We don't know any likely solutions except the southeast ridge is going to be fighting for domination of the region near Christmas. I expect a totally different solution set tomorrow morning.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I give the guy credit... he can always find a map to make himself like right. I always hope he is right thought. He would be fun to have as a local Met instead of the snow haters we have.
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Same applies to his critics. They can always find a map to argue against him


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WeatherWatch said:
Wow, I was looking over the 12z EPS and it's projecting that HP to be a 1064mb! :eek:
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The EPS is nowhere close to that at all, the mean is currently ~1038 hPa.
eps_mslp_anom_conus_180.png


Now, if you meant EPS "control", completely different story, in fact it's showing a 1068 hPa high over Montana, which would smoke the contiguous US record high MSLP set in Miles City, Montana on Christmas Eve 1983 (1064 hPa).
eps_slp_c_conus_38.png
 
Storm5 said:
Same applies to his critics. They can always find a map to argue against him


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Except, more often than not, especially when the pattern is going to turn warm, it's easy to find something that's not in his favor, which of late (past several years) has been the case, especially in the winter of 2015-16. Still baffles me how he never saw the epic torch coming in December 2015 during the 2015-16 super NINO, that was literally the easiest monthly forecast that you could possibly make...
 
Shawn said:
Couldn't a reason be because the cold air is drying it out?
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It could be, but this done this today at 12z and actually put down a strip of ice at 5" then be gone 6 hr later on the next frame. Maybe its cold air drying thinhs out but also it could be a model issue with the moisture this far out. I actually think there will be more moisture to work with, with that much sleet putting down.
 
accu35 said:
It could be, but this done this today at 12z and actually put down a strip of ice at 5" then be gone 6 hr later on the next frame. Maybe its cold air drying thinhs out but also it could be a model issue with the moisture this far out. I actually think there will be more moisture to work with, with that much sleet putting down.
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Looking at a sounding from what you're speaking about, the dewpoint goes from around 30 to 13 quickly. Then it drops to 3F. So it's cold, dense, dry air destroying the precipitation.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Just out of curiosity, any forum member have local Mets making call maps for possible winter weather this upcoming weekend into the following week? Recently seen a map from a local met out of Gainesville on social media.
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Even out here its been very vague everyone is just saying a lot of uncertainty and a couple have railed against the snow maps on social media lol

But mets here are notoriously conservative the biggest snowstorm in Dallas history in 2010 nobody saw coming and even the NWS played catchup all day as it was already snowing
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS is nowhere close to that at all, the mean is currently ~1038 hPa.
View attachment 2085


Now, if you meant EPS "control", completely different story, in fact it's showing a 1068 hPa high over Montana, which would smoke the contiguous US record high MSLP set in Miles City, Montana on Christmas Eve 1983 (1064 hPa).
View attachment 2086
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Yeah, I meant to put EPS control. Either way, it's going to be a strong high pressure. If a storm system came along the east as that high pushes south and east to the Plains, there would be a very tight gradient. There may not be a storm system that does come up along the east with a very strong high coming down the pipe like that. But, I think it will be worth monitoring for a system that does come up at the baroclinc zone.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
At first I thought it was a fluke, but now I realize that the models are seeing something that could possibly materialize. It has to be the huge -EPO.
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As I mentioned yesterday, while NINAs in general are warmer than NINOs here in the SE US, the top end of the distribution of arctic air masses (February 1899, January 1985, December 1989 for ex) are inherently more intense, generally speaking vs NINOs because the source region for the cold air is more often of Siberian origin in a NINA because we have a large ridge in the means over the Aleutians, Alaska, and Bering Sea that induces cross-polar transport from northern Eurasia and seeds North America w/ Siberian air. El Ninos feature a big Aleutian vortex that floods the North American continent with mild, Pacific air, and even if a big Greenland blocking high develops, the air masses in NINOs, while more easily penetrating our part of the world, they're often more modest because their starting point over north-central Canada is warmer vs what we see in a NINA. We certainly walk a fine line in either case, NINAs we get fewer arctic air masses but they're very intense if they manage to reach us, we are consistently cold in NINOs, but the air masses are continental polar and derived virtually in-situ from North America. This is obviously a huge over-generalization of the overall tendency of a large collection of ENSO events and there's a lot of inter-event variance, but this is worth bringing up here for future reference.
 
Here is what I keep coming back too. The SER I will win for now, however, with a building -EPO ( and that strong of a -EPO) your gonna build massive heights at 500mb and bridge to the pole. But your also going to be building massive surface highs as well that will happen, And the cold will push SE. Your not going to stop that. It might happen after Christmas, but it's going to happen. Cold will always undercut. We can't automatically dissmiss a 1050mb or possibly higher, hi quite yet. Not saying anyone is
 
Hope you are right
deltadog03 said:
Here is what I keep coming back too. The SER I will win for now, however, with a building -EPO ( and that strong of a -EPO) your gonna build massive heights at 500mb and bridge to the pole. But your also going to be building massive surface highs as well that will happen, And the cold will push SE. Your not going to stop that. It might happen after Christmas, but it's going to happen. Cold will always undercut. We can't automatically dissmiss a 1050mb or possibly higher, hi quite yet. Not saying anyone is
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Shawn said:
Looking at a sounding from what you're speaking about, the dewpoint goes from around 30 to 13 quickly. Then it drops to 3F. So it's cold, dense, dry air destroying the precipitation.
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Thanks man, didn't see that
 
I blew leaves today...way late in the season to be messing with leaves but of note, it is way to dry out. Blew a lot of dirt with the leaves... We need moisture bad. As far as forecasts and models go, CMC seems to be the only on that has been persistent with the SER winning past Christmas. ALL other have waffled but the CMC has seemed to be on the warmer side (for a change) this time persistantly. OOz, what do you have tonight???
 
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