I think it looks better.
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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
- Thread starter GaWx
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- inspired by mack
packfan98
Moderator
Everything seems to be shifted about 100-150 miles east through hr 150. The cold is pushing in a little faster and further south and east compared to 12z. Let's see where it goes...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol.
packfan98
Moderator
We can always say it's TRENDING better (than the 12z run).
At least we know that 12z was a fluke.
WeatherWatch
Member
It's trying hard
True. We could sure use another surprise run like today's 0Z though. I'm hopeful.
WeatherWatch
Member
The ridge may take a beating with a PV anomaly making it's way south from Canada at hr 174.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We have the ability to toss any model and model run that doesn't show a butload of cold and snow, if none of them show it, then we gotta keep sloshing the bathtub!!! 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's only a matter of time before arctic airmasses like the one forecasted to come after Christmas become a pipe dream as the southeast ridge really takes over. Definitely starting to look more and more like those -EPO/+NAO NINA January composites weren't so bad after all (surprise!)
WeatherWatch
Member
Well, there's a line of sleet, then poof, it's gone. I think the GFS is having issues with the moisture.
It was almost an ice storm in the 26th.
accu35
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Yeah it done this on the 12z as well. Funny thing 12z had the same issue but showed a strip of 5" sleet.Well, there's a line of sleet, then poof, it's gone. I think the GFS is having issues with the moisture.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Invest 97W in the west Pacific has started to fizzle out and likely partially explains why the long range has turned warmer in the past few days
Storm5
Member
Much better pattern on the 18z gfs as the ser is crushed
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Storm5
Member
.
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When you say long range, how far out in time do you mean?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In/around Christmas and just after specifically... The cold has gotten pushed back in time as the mean wave pattern favors a large-scale trough depositing cold into the Rockies & western US before modifying whats leftover as it inches southeastward
accu35
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Maybe oz runs tonight will have a better handle on it with the new data comes in
accu35
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That also means more chance at ice around that 26 time frame right? What do you think about that time frame the gfs shows? Looks as if it tries for an ice event then poof.
Storm5
Member
.
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gawxnative
Member
Well we can always hope that the 18 Z out at hour 8940 looks better...Just saying...LOL
Storm5
Member
Metwannabe, here is the Carolina christmas torch
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Maybe we will get lucky and finally get in on some of the cold by New Years.
I know the GFS runs have been much warmer than today's ridiculously cold 0Z GFS. But otherwise, hasn't it been more like the models jumping around over the last few days for Christmas and just beyond rather than clearcut warming or clearcut cooling?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I still feel like there will be one more shot in January but I think what we're alllllllll nervous about is when the Nina pattern takes over and entrenches itself that'll likely be all she wrote and this is a matter of when not if really.
The question is when that is. It's wishcasting and hoping a little but I still think that won't be around Christmas and when we've guessed it'll be.
But when it does, I at least can say I experienced snow TV on 75 from the NW ATL burbs to about Cartersville and was able to sneakily surprise my dad with a snowball.
The question is when that is. It's wishcasting and hoping a little but I still think that won't be around Christmas and when we've guessed it'll be.
But when it does, I at least can say I experienced snow TV on 75 from the NW ATL burbs to about Cartersville and was able to sneakily surprise my dad with a snowball.
Just to clarify it's not what I want but being the eastern most member in this setup the odds are against me. I still like the cold push beyond torchmasMetwannabe, here is the Carolina christmas torch
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pcbjr
Member
& how do you think the southernmost feels?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not really, the EPS and GEFS definitely warmer around Christmas than they were a few days ago although the spread is pretty large for now anyways... There's no denying that the warmer solutions are starting to win out.
NWMSGuy
Member
What’s the chances of the Cutoff coming back in future runs?
Phil like the old bud light commercials used to say, I love you man.... but you live in Fl, you're screwed. Sorry praying for a Floridian winter miracle just for you!
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pcbjr
Member
Back at ya! Not screwed; no one ever is if they realize reality! But, I've seen a few unreals, just never to this extreme on this side of the page, at Christmas, no less ...
I usually try to stay positive but today has been so depresssing.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's no coincidence that NWP solutions have trended warmer in concert w/ 97W petering out in the West Pacific. GFS operational case in point:
Couldn't a reason be because the cold air is drying it out?