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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

We would all take this and run like hell
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Storm5 said:
Just need a slight shift to the east and we don’t need it to close off. Of course I’m much further to the west vs your potion so we need different things


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Could be a case of too much of a good thing, or it's too strong? Not only a shift east would be nice but more importantly it closing off is doing us no favors, nothing to force that air further S/SE.
And I'm not giving up too quickly, Christmas is only 8 days away and everything points to a warm day for us over here
 
metwannabe said:
Could be a case of too much of a good thing, or it's too strong? Not only a shift east would be nice but more importantly it closing off is doing us no favors, nothing to force that air further S/SE.
And I'm not giving up too quickly, Christmas is only 8 days away and everything points to a warm day for us over here
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So we’ve had a week where models change every six hours and your going with the latest run for warmth in your area. Just saying , it’s not like anything’s been consistent
 
The general idea is a warm up for a period of time. We can't really fight against that at this point. The question is: "How persistent will it be?"

One of those larger Arctic Highs (1050+) will do wonders to beat it down and pave the way for something Wintry into New Years/Jan. In most likelihood.
 
Storm5 said:
Larry I’ll post the eps EPO forecast when it updates but look at the 12z euro !!!
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Thank you! Good gosh, WxBell has yesterday's 12Z op Euro and today's 12Z op Euro at sub -5 for at least four straight days!! I hope WxBell's charts are comparable to other EPO fcast charts as I'm assuming this means they're predicting 4 sub -500 days straight. IF so and IF that were to verify, it would obliterate the previous record back to 1948 of only one day in a row of sub -500, which was 12/24/1983!! That would be absolute insanity!
 
Storm5 said:
So we’ve had a week where models change every six hours and your going with the latest run for warmth in your area. Just saying , it’s not like anything’s been consistent
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It's not just the latest run that showed warmth but whatever, you're right I'm sure it can still be cold christmas day so I'll just wait for it
 
Storm5 said:
So we’ve had a week where models change every six hours and your going with the latest run for warmth in your area. Just saying , it’s not like anything’s been consistent
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The SER has been waaaay more common on model runs, than the 1060 highs overwhelming the country
 
the warm train folks are funny seeing how there is zero consistency in anything . Plus location matters especially if we are gonna have a gradient pattern. The further west you are in the southeast the cold it will be and the further east the warmer you will be
 
metwannabe said:
It's not just the latest run that showed warmth but whatever, you're right I'm sure it can still be cold christmas day so I'll just wait for it
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My point is nothing is consistent we see cold and warm looks every damn day .

I’ll get on the warm train with you . If you live in the Carolinas your screwed get ready for a torch
 
Storm5 said:
the warm train folks are funny seeing how there is zero consistency in anything . Plus location matters especially if we are gonna have a gradient pattern. The further west you are in the southeast the cold it will be and the further east the warmer you will be
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Spoken like a true statesman; you are the Winston Churchill of the board ... ;)
We all win, somehow ... :cool:
 
Storm5 said:
My point is nothing is consistent we see cold and warm looks every damn day .

I’ll get on the warm train with you . If you live in the Carolinas your screwed get ready for a torch
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The first step is admitting there's a problem! :(
 
Storm5 said:
the warm train folks are funny seeing how there is zero consistency in anything . Plus location matters especially if we are gonna have a gradient pattern. The further west you are in the southeast the cold it will be and the further east the warmer you will be
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I assume you're grouping me with the "warm train folks", comments on here some times are entertaining to say the least. My post was strictly about Christmas day warmth imby and was clearly about colder immediately after. If I'm wrong and Christmas eve is warm and Christmas is cold great that's a bonus. But saying that one has resigned to a warm day and is ok with it is by no means being on the "warm train". I'll resume enjoying the packers beat down courtesy of the Panthers.

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Storm5 said:
I just put on my ass hat and I’m trying to round up all the salty ass warm people
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It's going to to be a big train! 3 or 4 cars minimum! You can turn in your ass hat, for a conductors hat!
 
All 3 of the 12Z major op models have a 1059+
high in the N Rockies on 12/26. I know the wisest thing is to not buy into that. But with an extreme -EPO, couldn't a 1055-60
high out there be for real? If so, has there ever been a 1055+ high that never lead to a good cold shot in the SE US within a few days? I suspect there may be a couple but one would have to search.
 
GaWx said:
All 3 of the 12Z major op models have a 1059+
high in the N Rockies on 12/26. I know the wisest thing is to not buy into that. But with an extreme -EPO, couldn't a 1055-60
high out there be for real? If so, has there ever been a 1055+ high that never lead to a good cold shot in the SE US within a few days? I suspect there may be a couple but one would have to search.
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The 12z EPS & GEFS means have around 1040, so there is some agreement of it.
 
To add to my last post, the JMA has a 1061 right behind a 1058 (alrdy situated in the Western US)
 
Assuming the very strong -EPO verifies it makes perfect since about the cold dumping into the SW & slowly bleeding eastward. The top of the ridge expanding eastward forces the flow southwest digging into the bottom of the ridge. Normally, we get a big ridge that doesnt expand on top so usually you get the common spill into the plains. JMO
 
If there's absolutely no chance at wintry precipitation, I would love to live through a cold outbreak similar to the one in December 1983 or December 1989. We are well overdue region wide for another event like that to occur!
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
If there's absolutely no chance at wintry precipitation, I would love to live through a cold outbreak similar to the one in December 1983 or December 1989. We are well overdue region wide for another event like that to occur!
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My sky high gas and power bills disagree, though I agree in part in spirit.
 
Storm5 said:
the warm train folks are funny seeing how there is zero consistency in anything . Plus location matters especially if we are gonna have a gradient pattern. The further west you are in the southeast the cold it will be and the further east the warmer you will be
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Location is a big deal. I don't post much because lots of folks cliff diving and it don't look near as bad at my location. Impossible for everyone to be happy with one storm. The South is mighty big area.I was happy for the folks way south of me with the last one. It gets old with the it's over and gonna torch comments when no one knows yet and it is not for some.
 
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