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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Oddly, further on in time, the Euro has a stronger high of 1060+ dropping into the usa. Maybe it isnt way too far fetched, but still hard to believe.
 
1060mb high in MT on 216.
Here's the big big big problem on this run. That cutoff low I mentioned well East of Hawaii. The EURO wants to merge the large cutoff with the huge trough and orientate it from the Central North US to well out in the PAC (ENE to WSW orientation). Verbatim, it would be impossible to squash the SER on this run.

My bet ... the EPS will look completely different
 
Good lord Larry!!! This epo is crazy just too far west this run . But wow
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I don't think anal logs are being great right now! :(
 
Shawn said:
Oddly, further on in time, the Euro has a stronger high of 1060+ dropping into the usa. Maybe it isnt way too far fetched, but still hard to believe.
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That makes all the big 3 showing this , correct? The 1060-ish highs?
 
Tarheel1 said:
I don't think anal logs are being great right now! :(
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If someone is using anal logs, I swear that's gonna leave more than just a splinter mark or conversely, a really good stool softener.

That makes the big 3 all showing this, correct? The 1060-ish Mb highs?
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Yes all three showing 1060mb plus highs. The EUROs high isn't record breaking (as 1064mb is the MT record).
 
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If the timing is a bit faster with that very strong arctic high coming down, surely it will be cold in time for Christmas. Either way, we're still going to get the cold. It may not be on Christmas, it maybe a few days after Christmas.
 
That map says the probabilities are centered on Dec 28. Wouldnt the arctic air be well entrenched in the SE by then ?
 
Storm5 said:
Good lord Larry!!! This epo is crazy just too far west this run . But wow
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Only need that about a thousand miles east and we’ll be good to go!
 
From Ryan Maue: If you're West of the Mississippi River on Christmas Day, then you may want to ask for coal in your stocking. Extreme cold arriving via Polar Express. Off the charts Arctic cold.
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Storm5 said:
Here you go Larry . The 12z gefs epo forecast. While it looks good, it’s almost as if it’s short and fat after it closes off . That’s not gonna do us much good. We need it taller and ideally we don’t want it closing off
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Thanks! So, IF this 12Z GEFS EPO were to verify, we'd have daily EPO numbers of 460, -480, -485, -475, -410 during the 5 day interval 12/23-27!! How rare would something like that be?

1. There's only one day since 1948 with a sub -485: -504 of 12/24/1983.

2. The longest stretch of sub -460 days on record is only 2: 12/23-4/1983. This would be 4!

3. The longest stretch of sub -400 days on record is only 4: 1/3-6/1974. This would be 5!

My point is that should this verify, this would be an extreme rarity for a -EPO. Are the models going to have extra trouble getting a good handle on this in advance?
 
GaWx said:
Thanks! So, IF this 12Z GEFS EPO were to verify, we'd have daily EPO numbers of 460, -480, -485, -475, -410 during the 5 day interval 12/23-27!! How rare would something like that be?

1. There's only one day since 1948 with a sub -485: -504 of 12/24/1983.

2. The longest stretch of sub -460 days on record is only 2: 12/23-4/1983. This would be 4!

3. The longest stretch of sub -400 days on record is only 4: 1/3-6/1974. This would be 5!

My point is that should this verify, this would be an extreme rarity for a -EPO. Are the models going to have extra trouble getting a good handle on this in advance?
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Unfortunately, this year, it looks like we may need an EPO value of -780 to do us any good!
 
Rain Cold said:
Unfortunately, this year, it looks like we may need an EPO value of -780 to do us any good!
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Just need a slight shift to the east and we don’t need it to close off. Of course I’m much further to the west vs your potion so we need different things


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I've resigned to the fact that Christmas is going to be warm, fine I'm used to but it also looks like immediately following Christmas day winter will return. The week or so following Christmas may be our best chance before the pattern flips full on Nina'ish in January
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Excuse me for my ignorance but what is NWP ?
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metwannabe said:
I've resigned to the fact that Christmas is going to be warm, fine I'm used to but it also looks like immediately following Christmas day winter will return. The week or so following Christmas may be our best chance before the pattern flips full on Nina'ish in January
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you give in way to quick. But as I posted about to rain cold your much further east and in a completely different situation vs areas to the west
 
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