• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah I could understand if it was like 15 days away but 8 days away is unacceptable.
Click to expand...
You can't me in 2017/2018 with all the technology we have, and great minds in this country that we can't develop a model that has a clue about what the weather will be in a week. Or at least be in the ballpark on a general solution. It's almost as if once the GFS gets past initiation (even if it gets that right) it becomes a blindfolded drunk man throwing darts at a board filled with every possible solution known to man.
 
Today's 0Z GEFS MJO forecast, which had been for strong 6 and 7 all the way to 12/30, changed drastically since just yesterday and in doing so suddenly caved to be much closer to the rock steady EPS. No surprise there as the EPS is a much more accurate MJO predictor than the GEFS and is the best as has been mentioned repeatedly.

So, very similar to the last run, today's EPS has it go into moderate amp phase 8 on 12/21 and then it weakens to low amp phase 8 (going inside the circle) through 12/26 followed by inside circle 1 through 12/31. Though not even close to being a guarantee as the MJO is just one factor of many, that has tended to be a favorable track in winter for SE US cold based on what actually has happened in winters back to 1975, the year the daily MJO started at the source I use.

By the way, the MJO of the very cold SE US 0Z op GFS run went inside the circle phase 7 12/22 and then stayed inside circle 7 followed by inside circle 8 followed by inside circle 1, again a path that has often been associated with SE US cold.
 
I can't believe Christmas is STILL 8 days away

I feel like we've been talking about it forever and still have no clue what the weather will be like :rolleyes:
 
1300m said:
As you allude to, it appears the MJO forcing is having a significant impact on the modeled pattern. -EPO if it verifies is going to drive a major Arctic air mass into the CONUS and while the initial dump may be in the Plains it'll be the follow up post-Christmas when we could have some wintry potential based on the MJO forecast (if it verifies).
Click to expand...

Yep. I like the period after Christmas to slightly after New Years for a winter storm. Beyond that, it could go either way.
 
It's non-convective feedback on the GFS! lol. It's no wonder the SE ridge cowers back to the east and any southwest ejectable(o_O) energy gets squashed with LeBrons size 1073 mb Nike stomping on the middle of the conus. It is 7-8 days out, makes it fun;)
 
Here you go Larry . The 12z gefs epo forecast. While it looks good, it’s almost as if it’s short and fat after it closes off . That’s not gonna do us much good. We need it taller and ideally we don’t want it closing off
07a223af92835629ba2ffa913cee3023.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WeatherWatch said:
I doubt it, the models are still flipping.
Click to expand...
There are no guarantees for sure, but when the models keep flipping and frequently keep coming up with pretty standard Nina fare in a Nina year, that’s a pretty good signal, IMO.
 
Ensembles and all major Operational models for Ga, Sc and Nc(most) pretty much in agreement on at least a moderate SER...or a torch for Christmas. Lets hope it breaks down around the first of January or all the winter outlooks are gonna turn out to be right for out areas.
 
Rain Cold said:
There are no guarantees for sure, but when the models keep flipping and frequently keep coming up with pretty standard Nina fare in a Nina year, that’s a pretty good signal, IMO.
Click to expand...
Yes, that's true, but the Nina is weak to mod. The Nina isn't at a full swing. So, you have equal chances of colder patterns as much as you do warmer patterns during a weak to mod. Nina.
 
So lets get this right. The ridiculous GFS, is bi-polar and thinks that we get a 1064+ high rolling through. That's crazy right? And Then... And then.. the Canadian does a 1070+ high? What? I knew these two models were in cahoots, but there is no excuse to have such a strong high per Canadian.. the resolution is supposed to be 4dvarawesomestuff.canada.

I quit.
 
Stormsfury said:
12z GEM has a 1070mb high bogged in WY 26th-27th timeframe
Click to expand...
Something big may be coming!? All the models can't be totally off their rocket!? If we can't get snow, atleast some record surface pressure and record cold, would be fun!
 
WeatherWatch said:
Yes, that's true, but the Nina is weak to mod. The Nina isn't at a full swing. So, you have equal chances of colder patterns as much as you do warmer patterns during a weak to mod. Nina.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how easily it seems for virtually any area of the country other than the SE to set up a cold and stormy pattern. For whatever reason the last few years, we have really struggled. It feels like there is virtually no pattern, that is also possible in today’s climate, that can bring about a consistent period of cold and stormy weather to the SE. That used to not be the case.

I know that doesn’t necessarily portend anything for tomorrow, but there is something that is driving this. Climate change, solar, ocean currents, something. So, until we start seeing evidence of an ability to get cold and snowy again, I feel like it’s prudent to at least give more weight more frequently to the least cold and snowy solutions depicted, particularly when the background state (i.e. Nina) isn’t the best for us —not always, but more often than not — at least until things change more consistently.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Something big may be coming!? All the models can't be totally off their rocket!? If we can't get snow, atleast some record surface pressure and record cold, would be fun!
Click to expand...

Let's just hypothetize for a brief moment (presumably in a parallel universe lol) that this pressure indicies are even somewhat close to what verifies.

The nature of the cold would likely be mishandled under that kind of pressure plus unless you actually had the high overhead, calm winds will not happen. IMO, that would be a bone chilling bite to that airmass. The airmass itself eould literally feel "heavy". Cold would actually be underdone initially until modifications take place. Conditions would indeed be very similar to what occurred in Dec 1983 with a strong, cold driven biting wind.

Obviously, we need some damn consistency with the steps leading up Chirstmas week to even begin to realize what's in store. The EURO isn't looking like it will serve to only add to the confusion on this upcoming run.
 
Euro almost even torches us

From a foot of snow to a torch in 2 days

Lol then it snows Christmas on the front
 
Euro has a strange look to it at 500mb at 192. Has a small cut off south of Baja California, another cutoff well East of Hawaii and the SER nosing up trying to meet with the -EPO ridge in Canada.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top