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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Gonna be a fight a slow cold bleed this run. Complete 180 from 00z. The epo is off the charts but it’s too far to the West


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The GFS is complete asinine with this back and forth... also, there will be a shooting star in hell before the GFS makes its mind up and who knows what it will take for it to get it somewhat right.
 
Eh if the Euro and EPS hold ground next up I'll be ok. But the GFS....please go back to the downgrade or trash it. It's stupid with these swings.
 
12z vs 00z gfs
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Way too much energy directed toward the SW US again for the SE to be able to get cold as early as prior recent runs. I'm hopeful and am assuming this is just a burp and that the recent trend of less energy directed to the SW US will resume.
 
Not sure how many upgrades it will take to fix the waffling of the GFS in the medium range. The Euro always does better in this time frame.
 
Tarheel1 said:
It has before! 1899!!
JB was there!! :)
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Lol! The highest MSLP observed in the contiguous US and Kansas occurred in the relatively recent past on Christmas Eve 1983, Miles City, Montana recorded a MSLP of 1064 hPa....
The ECMWF's 20th Century Reanalysis dataset does an amazing job of analyzing this historic event imo, hits the MSLP right on the money over Montana...

US MSLP 6z December 24 1983 via ERA-20C
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GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm not hopeful. Outside of a blip here and there, the GFS has always been very warm for this Christmas. The epo will likely be wasted.
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Yep, even with all the back and forth on the GFS, a theme is developing and it's not a good one. I'm not out just yet, still think that the Euro has the better handle on the overall pattern. If the Euro caves, then the party might be over..
 
ForsythSnow said:
And we thought the gfs was nuts...
gem_mslpa_us_37.png
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I'm sure the CMC's parameter space more adequately represents events like this vs the GFS given it was created in Canada where highs like this of similar magnitude aren't completely unheard of adjacent to the Canadian Rockies but it's too far out so the model may have the synoptic pattern completely wrong
 
Brent said:
only takes til Christmas morning. :p The pre-Christmas cold went poof
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Well worth the wait if you get single digits or below zero temps!
 
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