• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Downeastnc said:
The first fantasy storm tropical version for MBY this season, would be a bit windy if that panned out....not a common track at all either......Hurricane Ireneish just further east down south.

Irene-Full-Path.gif
Click to expand...
Interesting to see if the models bring the trough back or if the ridging along the east coast gets stronger. Could be anywhere from FL or the gulf to OTS. Still way too early as we all know but its the only thing worth watching now unless you love heat and dry.
 
A little stronger, quicker earlier and a little more east. Ridge is gone from the east coast and is now a trough. Wow the swings 240 hours out! ?


gfs_mslp_uv850_atl_40.png
 
No ridge to slow the progression based off of this one run, I know this is not reality and it's too far out but the GFS is back to GFS things with the massive swings.

gfs_z500a_atl_45.png


gfs_z500a_atl_44.png
 
jeremyt said:
My posts weren’t to assume that it’s an OTS storm, more that it’s still way too far out to really know anything and that the operational models , specifically, the GFS are all over the place!
Click to expand...
True. At least we have something to watch
 
Here is the mean 500mb pattern for some of the more memorable hurricane hits in the Carolinas from cape Verde storms since hugo. The big precursors are the trough in the PNW or Northern plains and the big ridge in SE Canada. compday.FlmD894n8M (1).gif

Now if you change the criteria the pattern changes. For a deep inland system Fran/Hugo the cutoff low similar to the overnight gfs appears compday.XltHBr6dfZ.gif

Here is what some of the I95 or east runners looked like Floyd/Irene
compday.R6n0fwbGhK.gif

And finally some of the heavier blocked systems Isabel/Florence compday.fA7QdZ6NFR.gif
 
Last edited:
SD said:
Here is the mean 500mb pattern for some of the more memorable hurricane hits in the Carolinas from cape Verde storms since hugo. The big precursors are the trough in the PNW or Northern plains and the big ridge in SE Canada. View attachment 136787

Now if you change the criteria the pattern changes. For a deep inland system Fran/Hugo the cutoff low similar to the overnight gfs appears View attachment 136788

Here is what some of the I95 or east runners looked like Floyd/Irene
View attachment 136789

And finally some of the heavier blocked systems Isabel/Florence View attachment 136790
Click to expand...
My take away is high latitude blocking, we’ll see what happens in the coming days!
 
Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles
north of the Azores and is forecast to move quickly southeastward
towards warmer waters east of Azores. This system could acquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week or this
weekend while it moves erratically between the Azores and Portugal.
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Click to expand...
 
...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

We never had a Cat 5 operationally in either basin the last 2 years(Ian was upgraded briefly in the postseason)

And to think Lee may follow this weekend...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top