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Pattern Mega March 2023

Shawn said:
Idk about down this way, but for northern SC up that way, there's likely another towards the end of March/very early April (1st week).

The ideas been on the modeling for a couple days and it just makes sense. They don't start planting on/after good Friday for no reason around these parts
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Yes, I think average last freeze here is around the turn of the month.
 
Shawn said:
Idk about down this way, but for northern SC up that way, there's likely another towards the end of March/very early April (1st week).

The ideas been on the modeling for a couple days and it just makes sense. They don't start planting on/after good Friday for no reason around these parts
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No doubt we will have at least 1 more 1-2 night hard freeze between now and the end of April round my way. Happens every year. One reason why my grandpa taught me don't even think about planting the Garden until at least the end of April.
 
Chazwin said:
This is why I’m in No way concerned about drought. A three year Niña just ended and we never saw an extended drought
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Yeah, in this area of the country, it all seems to balance out eventually. I just would love a couple weeks break on rain. I'll never get back out mountain biking at this rate. Trails too muddy.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, in this area of the country, it all seems to balance out eventually. I just would love a couple weeks break on rain. I'll never get back out mountain biking at this rate. Trails too muddy.
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According to the gfs, we got more drought coming on Tuesday, more next weekend, and more after that. I can't burn my wet brush pile. ☹
 
Rain Cold said:
According to the gfs, we got more drought coming on Tuesday, more next weekend, and more after that. I can't burn my wet brush pile. ☹
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What’s funny is that two days ago, there were some on here saying that if the GFS was right, drought spreading soon.
 
Chazwin said:
What’s funny is that two days ago, there were some on here saying that if the GFS was right, drought spreading soon.
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I doubt the .02 today is going to put a dent in the negative anomalies so far this year. Not all of us are fortunate enough to live in the rain forest from Birmingham to clt to South wake
 
SD said:
I doubt the .02 today is going to but a dent in the negative anomalies so far this year but ok
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I’m speaking to more how you can’t ever take the GFS seriously when within 48 hours, it has one run showing basically no rainfall for all of NC/SC and one that showing decent rainfall every 4 days or so
 
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Chazwin said:
What’s funny is that two days ago, there were some on here saying that if the GFS was right, drought spreading soon.
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Well this rain today was unexpected. We only had a 20% chance as late as last night and then only for a brief period. As it turned out it rained all day and it is still raining now. We were looking at a couple of hundredths at most but am approaching .50 now.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m speaking to more how you can’t ever take the GFS seriously when within 48 hours, it has one run showing basically no rainfall for all of NC/SC and one that showing decent rainfall every 4 days or so
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Gotcha I thought you were trolling like the same Olds that do about anytime someone says it's dry. The pattern going forward doesn't thrill me for rain but it looks like any freeze potential is getting less and less through 4/5
 
Chazwin said:
I’m speaking to more how you can’t ever take the GFS seriously when within 48 hours, it has one run showing basically no rainfall for all of NC/SC and one that showing decent rainfall every 4 days or so
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I think they all busted on this event today. I know GSP was playing catch up all day with it.
 
Wow the GFS is a mess. The 18z run is already wrong in parts of NC and SC and it only run a few hours ago.
 
SD said:
I doubt the .02 today is going to put a dent in the negative anomalies so far this year. Not all of us are fortunate enough to live in the rain forest from Birmingham to clt to South wake
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i was just looking at our precip table here and out of our 7.85 total for 2023 a total of 4.39 fell on just 3 days. Jan 22nd jan 25th and feb 13. So half our precip is from only 3 days of rain.
 
BullCityWx said:
I was talking to one of our former higher ups who left to run a farm in Chatham County and he said his tulips fared just fine during the cold snap but it really put a hurting on strawberries and peaches.
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It absolutely nuked my peaches. Apples were just budding out this week thankfully.

Lots of smoke around NW GA tonight. From what I can tell there are fires in Alabama.
 
Shaggy said:
At this point we are starting to see repeats to last spring with lack of rain. You can't make this up. This is the 260ish hour 06z gfs
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Hopfully with us going into a neutral/la nina pattern we'll see better rain chances as we head deeper into the year. ...But we had all that rain this past winter when we were supposed to be dry.
 
Chazwin said:
NE winds, low clouds, and drizzle in DC. I’ve seen a number of times this time of the year where you get temperature differences like that around here on a much shorter area.
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Yep the power of CAD. I have seen 20-30 degree differences between the I-85 corridor and Columbia too many times to count. That difference has kept many severe weather events at bay in the CAD areas of NC and SC.
 
JHS said:
Yep the power of CAD. I have seen 20-30 degree differences between the I-85 corridor and Columbia too many times to count. That difference has kept many severe weather events at bay in the CAD areas of NC and SC.
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Absolutely, I can remember one time back in the late 90s when a back door cold front was dropping into northeast NC on a late March afternoon, that temperatures in the Piedmont were in the upper 80s while Elizabeth City and Cape Hatteras were in the mid 50s
 
Gfs has been horrible this year. Literally had me at about .20 inches out to 264 hrs just 2 days ago and we are gonna get that no problem tonight and then some. 3k nam has me approaching an inch by morning
 
Shaggy said:
Gfs has been horrible this year. Literally had me at about .20 inches out to 264 hrs just 2 days ago and we are gonna get that no problem tonight and then some. 3k nam has me approaching an inch by morning
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I was going to post that exact thing earlier today, as the map that was posted the other day is already well on its way to busting.
 
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