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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

ATLwxfan said:
Ok we’re good. Plenty of time left lol


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What’s odd about that storm is that it was an overrunning southern slider event with a sharp cut off on the northern edge… Hickory over to Greensboro got nothing from it. You would think that a storm with that type of amounts so late in the season would have come from an ULL
 
It won’t be fun initially but this evolution is going to play in the favor of cold ..come early mid month of march that -PNA will falter and with all the blocking overtop thats currently being modeled across all models, mischief will happen. Colder looks will probably pop up as we get closer past the first week of march. Enough for a widespread south east winter storm? Probably not. But I don’t think we can take winter weather off the table for someone in the SE in march. Euro weeklies hint at it and so does the GEFS extended. It’s only a matter of time before a colder pattern gets established, the question will be how effective will it be at making some winter weather happen come week 2 and on in March. 65998B68-DFDE-459F-A2F9-6C1D2A19B94F.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
It won’t be fun initially but this evolution is going to play in the favor of cold ..come early mid month of march that -PNA will falter and with all the blocking overtop thats currently being modeled across all models, mischief will happen. Colder looks will probably pop up as we get closer past the first week of march. Enough for a widespread south east winter storm? Probably not. But I don’t think we can take winter weather off the table for someone in the SE in march. Euro weeklies hint at it and so does the GEFS extended. It’s only a matter of time before a colder pattern gets established, the question will be how effective will it be at making some winter weather happen come week 2 and on in March. View attachment 133444
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Colder pattern established in March , in the se. That’s funny . Good luck
 
Looks like the Canadian model(s) are the only ones showing temps 80+ for GSO and RDU. Actually for almost all of NC and SC. I thought it might have been a bit overdone.
TW
 
Everyone knows I am cold and snow weenie through and through. But to me I think we need to set our expectations up for reality. The pacific looks awful right now and it doesn't really improve all that much as of today on the Ensembles (I focus primarily on the EPS). Granted that could be a delay due to not feeling the effects of a better MJO, but the pattern I see is one that limits the SER and we moderate the above average anomalies down to average or slightly below average because of a big -NAO and consistent 50/50 combo. But the Pacific is still bad and you're dumping what little cold air we have mostly out west still.

To me snow just isn't happening this year. the pattern we are entering is one of slightly below average with a lot of cold 40 degree rains. Just look at the EPS 850 anomalies as we enter March, you can already see the winter airmasses are moderating considerably. We don't have enough legit cold air in the northern hemisphere to give anyone in the south a legit shot at snow unless you're out in Texas as most of the available cold is sitting in the Rockies still.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-1676937600-1677607200-1678233600-20.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
It won’t be fun initially but this evolution is going to play in the favor of cold ..come early mid month of march that -PNA will falter and with all the blocking overtop thats currently being modeled across all models, mischief will happen. Colder looks will probably pop up as we get closer past the first week of march. Enough for a widespread south east winter storm? Probably not. But I don’t think we can take winter weather off the table for someone in the SE in march. Euro weeklies hint at it and so does the GEFS extended. It’s only a matter of time before a colder pattern gets established, the question will be how effective will it be at making some winter weather happen come week 2 and on in March. View attachment 133444
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oh great. going to call this march pattern the pallbearer so it can let us down one more time
 
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