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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

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packfan98 said:
I looked at the sounding at the same time on the 3k NAM and the column was saturated. The only thing that was bad was the surface temps. New 12z is rolling out now. Let's see what it says here in a little bit. I definitely trust the 3k NAM more, but hour 54 is way out there for that model that only goes to 60.
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Yeah, with good rates you can probably extrapolate it to heavy wet snow with temperatures 33-35. I’m a weenie, but I think the models overdo BL temps in these situations when the rest of the column is sufficiently cold. Not great for actual accumulations, but you could see some slush if it lasts long enough.
 
metwannabe said:
My guess is the GFS will throw us one last bone here in a few minutes since FV3 is still doing so

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for what it's worth this is typically where we see northwest trends benefit us; i don't think this is super high leverage and a situation like last year when some minute trough orientation details determine whether we all get flurries or widespread 2-5. the cold air advection is what it is, there will be a tight window where it takes the column cold enough to snow without drying the column out enough for a lucky, narrow strip of folks at a time. some NW adjustments in precip could mean this window stays open a little longer.
 
ILMRoss said:
for what it's worth this is typically where we see northwest trends benefit us; i don't think this is super high leverage and a situation like last year when some minute trough orientation details determine whether we all get flurries or widespread 2-5. the cold air advection is what it is, there will be a tight window where it takes the column cold enough to snow without drying the column out enough for a lucky, narrow strip of folks at a time. some NW adjustments in precip could mean this window stays open a little longer.
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Not sure if I should thank you or curse you for keeping hope alive
 
9 run trend of the GFS slowly backing the precip further NW and slowing this exiting wave down. 9 runs ago, Alabama and parts of North GA was nearly dry at this time step, now the current run shows rain still falling Friday morning.
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NickyBGuarantee said:
Either american models are really poor or they are onto something with more precip than others. We will be able to nowcast this fairly easily with radar trends come Thursday evening.
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I'm like Shane, I've seen this movie before, ending never changes
 
I guess my argument would be and like @ILMRoss mentioned, if the precip can last long enough to allow more time for the colder air to work in. Maybe at least a mix for a brief time would be a possibility.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Something isn’t right View attachment 131972
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what may be going on here is that the sounding is an instantaneous snapshot of 12z, but the precip is totaled from the previous 6 hours. shows the strength of the cold air advection and how quickly the sinking air will dry things out
 
Ended up under an Ice storm warning last night. Driving home from work last night with icy Trees hangin over me was a bit unsettling.
Here’s pics of Trees from yesterday afternoon from ZR the night before. This was before last nights ZR started so they are much worse now. I’ll get some pics on the way to work tonight.
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This is from this morning. The grass is crunching when I walk on it.
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KyloG said:
Well the good news...it can't be any worse next year. NYC to PHL to DC all a disaster too.

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That's exactly right. Nothing is as bad as it gets and can't be topped. Warmest January at RDU since 1990. Ironically that followed the frigid Christmas of 89. I had a bad feeling when the pattern flipped to horrible end of Dec we were headed down that road. Whats worse is what followed Jan 1990. No more measurable snow until March 93 in GSO and a lot of Central NC I think.
 
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