JHS
Member
Very little precip and that high is gone. We may be losing it now.
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
An in-situ CAD here with the high well offshore will still probably yield ice in this setup because of how brutally cold the preceding air mass is
iGRXY
Member
Need the energy coming out of the NW to dig like the CMC. The GFS doesn't do that. I am okay with that right now. First thing you want to see is a deepening 50/50 low to help slow the progression of the N/S and lock a seriously strong HP in place with the coldest air available in the perfect position. I always say that you want to be absolutely sure you have the cold air in place to score. You can always coun't on more ridging or amplification of waves because that tends to be the trend in the shorter range these days. I tend to bet more on WAA and more amplified and faster systems to verify vs cold air verifying. Right now I want to make sure we have a CAD dome locked in because any WAA that is thrown over it will ring out any moisture available and that is a much easier way to score.
You know it’s a bad winter when Roxboro can’t even snow. What a January
I want a stronger piece of energy diving further south so we can develop a storm closer to the coast and get more moisture .. I’m feeling less than optimistic with this one
iGRXY
Member
I will put my mortgage on the table that says the models are likely moving that HP out way too fast.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not really. It’s one operational model run 7 days out.
Even with the GFS’s known biases to erode CAD too quickly (because of the non local mixing scheme in the model), it still produces ice in the western Piedmont.
Considering how bleak this looked this morning before the 12z suite showed up, we’re not losing anything
Stay level headed ?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
11/22 in the Canadian suite support an icing event next weekend
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iGRXY
Member
My rule of thumb is if we have cold air established and especially if we are using CAD to get the job done and just need to worry about getting a storm to show up, I will take that 10/10x. We may not get anything other than a cold dry few days. But we have a wave dropping down out of the Pacific Northwest and are just having timing delays with a very cold and well established airmass in place with 7 days to go. To me that is like being up 3 TDs at halftime. Considering we almost always need the cold air to be around to score, take that as a win that we have it available at least. We do have work to do however. We need a nice strong wave to enter faster and need the Western ridge to spike behind it to help the wave dig SE. Also, need the 50/50 to continue to deepen and slow to a crawl and help lock in a 1040+ HP. Need stream separation and get the energy to really dig south and drive overrunning.
Sounds like a lot of "needs"
iGRXY
Member
The 50/50 looks likely. The most up in the air is the wave coming out of the PNW.
ATLwxfan
Member
With how much rain we’ve had with the Nina what would El Niño bring? It’s confusing when things aren’t operating as they usually would.
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NoSnowATL
Member
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
it's interesting how in both of those maps, the wet area is not really that far from the dry area.
NoSnowATL
Member
Also hurricane season tends to be below avg in El Niño summers. I guess it’s due to shear.
Tornadocane
Member
His football analogy is priceless.
iGRXY
Member
Yet true. Cold air will be here. Right now we are trying to get moisture in the picture. That is 100x better than vice versa
Agree 100%. We need it sustained long enough for a "cycle" so to speak of shortwave roll. Our luck though this cold will occur between events
iGRXY
Member
18z EURO looked like it was going to have a stronger and faster wave coming out of the PNW and the TPV is further southwest and slower. Those are 2 trends you want to continue to see.
iGRXY
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
I appreciate the maps but it seems we’ve had a rip roaring pac jet all winter. Could very well be dry and warm next year.
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I gotta say… I’m seeing a lot of similarities to the February 1994 Ice Storm.
Cary_Snow95
Member
iGRXY
Member
Bombing 50/50 and faster wave that is coming in further south. Need to pump the ridge behind it and try to get it to dig
Not looking like a major ice storm tonight at 00z .. next
iGRXY
Member
Ughhhh those are great changes. Taller ridge going up out west with a wave that is digging more coming out of the west. 50/50 region took more steps to being better as well. This is positive if you want a storm
Tornadocane
Member
Yep.
You have a Southern Stream Vorticity that will slowly traverse through the south towards the Downwind side of quickly moving compressed Polar Vortex. It merely trailing along a frontal boundary with the only source of moisture flowing from the WSW . The Southern Stream Energy is unable to interact with the Polar Vortex, so the squashed heigh fields are inhibiting precipitation from developing in the cold regions. The upstream Ridge builds over the Southern Shortwave. Then the vorticity is shunted SE and gets strung out over SE FL. There needs to be a significant change in the PV speed, orientation, and amplification, and I don't see that happening with a storm barreling into the West Coast.
This Shortwave gets pinched off on the 00z GFS. Maybe it waits for the next trough, but then the cold air is gone. The only areas that may see snow are interior, mountainous regions of the MA.
iGRXY
Member
Still a long way to go to get storm however. Need the TPV to slow down and not lift out so fast. Also need the wave coming out of the west to not get tugged by the N/S and allow the wave to dig otherwise it’s a mute point
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The last 3 0z + 12z GFS runs valid 12z Saturday.
Notice the trend in the 50-50 low.
Why exactly are people cancelling this?
Notice the trend in the 50-50 low.
Why exactly are people cancelling this?
iGRXY
Member
CMC might go for something
iGRXY
Member
Before the 50/50 even starts to really bomb out the CMC already has it in a better location
I can smell the snapped pine trees now
iGRXY
Member
I’d be surprised if we don’t get something on the CMC
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yeah it produced some ice in NE GA, parts of upstate SC and SW/W NC
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iGRXY
Member
The most important thing is to continue to trend things favorably and keep a storm signal which we have at this range. It is still 7 days away and you don’t want to see a storm right now yet. Overrunning potentials are known to trend to more moisture the closer you get as long as you keep trends favorable
Tornadocane
Member
Go 6-12 hours forward. LOL. I wouldn't even call that pseudo 50/50 Low. The Western Ridge instantly collapses. And the scenario relies on the Southern Stream Vortex from the first system closing-off, and retrograding around Florida until the next trough pulls it up the East Coast. But don't let me rain on your parade.
iGRXY
Member
Why are we expecting a perfect run at 156 hours on an Operational lmaooo ???? It’s about TRENDING better right now. But let me not rain on your paradeGo 6-12 hours forward. LOL. I wouldn't even call that pseudo 50/50 Low. The Western Ridge instantly collapses. And the scenario relies on the Southern Stream Vortex from the first system closing-off, and retrograding around Florida until the next trough pulls it up the East Coast. But don't let me rain on your parade.
View attachment 131773
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Go 6-12 hours forward. LOL. I wouldn't even call that pseudo 50/50 Low. The Western Ridge instantly collapses. And the scenario relies on the Southern Stream Vortex from the first system closing-off, and retrograding around Florida until the next trough pulls it up the East Coast. But don't let me rain on your parade.
View attachment 131773
You don't need western ridging to get CAD.
iGRXY
Member
You know winter has been hell when you have board pessimism and gloom when you’re getting looks like this on runs in the medium range. You people realize how little of tweaks you need to get this to be a significant hit?