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Pattern Jammin January 2023

MichaelJ said:
I agree with SD, it will be a gradual step down mode and the finale will be very cold. After that around Feb 5-10th the rubber band snaps and our old friend the SER makes a grand entrance for a while. I believe we have a good chance of seeing some short cold period in March and a very cool
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KyloG said:
It sure has been a wet winter...California is nuts. SE has been well above normal too. Models saying it keeps coming....this ain't nina

View attachment 129869View attachment 129868
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course been wet. Because it’s been mild also …. When colder air returns or if it does … promise u it dry up
 
Parker said:
12z NAM looked glorious with northwest flow snow.
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It has flurries all the way past Montgomery, AL, too! A little taste of winter? 850 mb layer is nearly saturated and temps are cold aloft. Maybe it could happen... Mountains look golden, if you have the vehicle to navigate the roads. Friday night looks like the best chance to see snow flurries.
 
GFS has a nice snow event for the northeast towards the end of the run. Meanwhile ridge lovers will be happy in the south.


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GEPS says by, by torch.
gem-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

Stormy E Coast too?
gem-ens_uv250_namer_65.png
 
Winter Storm Watch issued for smokies. Will be in route tomorrow afternoon

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-121000-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.230113T0500Z-230114T1200Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-
Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Monroe-
Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva,
Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek,
Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont,
Gatlinburg, Citico, and Coker Creek
311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches possible with locally higher totals possible. Winds
could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee, generally at or above 2500
feet elevation.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$
 
GoDuke said:
Hope in one had, ? in the other. See which one fills up first.
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The jet in the E Pac is going to collapse over the next 5-6 days. Meanwhile, there will be a new jet extension in the W Pac that kicks out off E Asia beginning on day 3 (Jan 14).

As we go out in time into the last 10 days of Jan, there are going to be competing forces that will likely play a role in determining how much this next jet extension pushes east.

The MJO tropical forcing is likely to become active in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2-3) which is a setup that favors limited jet extension, leading to a -PNA pattern.

In contrast, the developing height anomaly pattern over Asia of ridge in west & central Asia and trough in E Asia is one that will favor surface high pressure systems dropping down into E Asia, which typically leads to momentum being added into the Pac Jet as low pressure systems exit E Asia and head toward the Aleutian Islands, leading to a -EPO and/or +PNA pattern.

I'd say I'm 50/50 on it at the moment in terms of how this will lean for the last week of Jan into the beginning of Feb.

1CK4yvN.png
 
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