I like this GFS run better already 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yea definitely.. good lead time. Once we get this 1st system out the way, models will begin to show more precip for 2nd system I think.
Tbh I don't think precip will end up being the issue, just need good timing so that we still have cold air in place.... gonna be a close one, thread the needle, it's what we do best in the south
Vortex is farther SE, which is better since that would mute the WAR, but also lows more space for digging energy and amplification. That trend imo is a win win so far this run, let’s see what happens, hopefully that leading wave doesn’t kill moisture supply or doesn’t allow system to get stuck
NCSNOW
Member
Don’t like the leader in the SE
Anddddd wet fart on the gfs
First leader wave is a big issue here, need it less amplified and flatter
NCSNOW
Member
Cant get em lined up for the top one to come down in rear and set things off. To much press from the NE gyre
buckinbronco
Member
Yeah that first piece of energy needs to get out of the way
AJ1013
Member
Looks like some nasty ass cold rain here
Wish the leader wave would become the dominate one. Cold air wouldn't be any issue then. Lol
SnowwxAtl
Member
Was this the same issues on the ICON?
No, which is why I’m not to concerned about it honestly
Initially yeah, but for our pacific wave it’s not the NE gyre that’s the issue, it’s the initial digging energy in the SE messing things up before our main pacific wave arrives
Already a huge difference on the CMC vs GFS, notice, just like the icon, the leader wave is already in SC/GA and getting out of here. Not close to the panic button yet 
We're good, I mean I still remember when the GFS had this for tomorrow's system.... lol
buckinbronco
Member
Yeah that GFS run was kind of wonky with the energy. Good to see it’s on its own with that idea for now.
Less amped .. less ridge.. meh 
smast16
Member
For Really? 1pm temps @ 16 with a ~15 kt wind? That's windchill values in the negatives in middle of the afternoon!!
More northern stream involvement and less WAR is good here. That look the cmc had before was garbage. Sure precip is not there but it’s was better then the ugly runs it was showing, trending to a cleaner look for snow here tbh
Just need to work on the base here, but that was honestly somewhat close here to a phased system. The garbage we had before was WAA and apps runner galore. 
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,895
- Reaction score
- 12,297
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
From probably Mount Airy to Roanoke Rapids tomorrow, I think there may be a window to see some snow showers. Maybe up to 20-30 miles south of that line as well.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 531
- Reaction score
- 1,461
12z HRRR brought the cold in quicker and stronger. Most potent arctic frontal passage since 1983 1989
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 531
- Reaction score
- 1,461
lol GEFS is pretty different Vs the OP with the digging S/W 
Oconeexman
Member
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2017
- Messages
- 1,200
- Reaction score
- 3,161
Yea we had 3 or 4 morning lows of below 0 temps that week in 85. I remember ceasers head recorded -20 or something like that. At my house we hit -7 at the lowest that week.
SimeonNC
Member
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That's a cold front! .... I am in the single digits and Raleigh is above freezing. I thought those arctic blasts of the 80's (1983, 1985, 1989) would never happen again here. Guess, history does repeat ..... now, how about that 1980 or 1988 snowstorm. I would love to see either one of those again.
packfan98
Moderator
UKMET looks flat with our post Christmas energy.
Wow.. UKMET is what we need more off.Actually it isn't too far off, even had a little snow with it.....
Ukie going negative tilt as it exits coast, a little sooner and this goes boom
That’s almost exciting for it to be showing up like that at this rangeUkie going negative tilt as it exits coast, a little sooner and this goes boom
Last edited:
You can see the area showing up in the Carolinas. 
Wow UkMET is also picking up the same area. Slowly but surely we will get there ??? HOPEFULLY
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
This front is going to be historic for many across the country, no doubt about that; especially for Christmas week in particular. For the upstate particularly; is appears (key word) it will be more if a memorable front than "historic." WYFF has our coldest temps of 33/12, which will certainly be impressive, but even just 2 years ago our Christmas day was 34/16. Additionally, there are no daily records forecast so I wouldn't call it historic for the upstate. For many areas just to our West it may well be historic; highs in the teens and single digits, lows near or below zero. The mtns are going to mute this for us unfortunately.
I don't remember the 83 Christmas weather but the coldest Christmas morning I remember was 11 degrees IMBY in 1995 so we may rival that. I would love to see another Jan 85, now that I am older and can appreciate it but will probably never happen again in my lifetime. -14 IMBY, was living in Dacusville at the time. The angle of the cold must have been just perfect for the upstate.
drfranklin
Member
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2016
- Messages
- 489
- Reaction score
- 709
lived in Memphis, TN during the Jan 1985 Arctic Plunge - recall a high at its worst in the mid-teens with lows below zero - what an incredible month with cold and snow! I was out of school (middle school at time) for 3 weeks!
this cold outbreak is close to that for the mid-South (those west of Apps, esp for AR/TN/MS/AL)
this cold outbreak is close to that for the mid-South (those west of Apps, esp for AR/TN/MS/AL)
Record low max for Christmas eve at rdu is 29 that may just get broken
Last edited: