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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

I’ll tell you what we’re focused on the 27-28 storm a lot but don’t sleep on this tiny little piece of energy infront if it on the 26th .. could end up being nothing but there may end up being just enough forcing to spit out some snow flakes for some lucky individuals. It’s been looking interesting past few runs. 1671574561414.gif
 
That’s a lot of QPF for 15:1 ratios! ??? 18z GFS0840BE5C-2280-4622-B7E1-B2AE88C62D88.png
 
Chazwin said:
Very possible… but this will be with bright sunshine. One thing is we may be cursing the wind Friday afternoon but it being up will likely save a lot of places from dropping in the 0-5 degree range Friday night
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I mean does it really matter what the actual temp is on Fri night ? The wind chills will make it feel brutally cold.
 
GFS/NAM/RGEM all showing that backside end of clipper providing a nice little band of snow showers it's slowly been ranging upward. I guess can watch over next day or so for how this further develops it ain't gonna be enough to build a snowman but people may get a little pretty dusting or so Christmas weekend

PS... for GA maybe some in N.AL and TN got a chance for a little more
1671574956690.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I’ll tell you what we’re focused on the 27-28 storm a lot but don’t sleep on this tiny little piece of energy infront if it on the 26th .. could end up being nothing but there may end up being just enough forcing to spit out some snow flakes for some lucky individuals. It’s been looking interesting past few runs. View attachment 127886
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I've been watching this little guy too. A Christmas miracle!
gfs_midRH_us_22.png
 
Interesting tidbit from FFC about tomorrow night/Thursday.

000
FXUS62 KFFC 202001
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

An upper disturbance will continue to move east in the flow this
evening and finally offshore overnight. The zonal flow aloft will
continue through the day tomorrow, but begin to shift to the SW
tomorrow night. At the surface, a weak low pressure wave off the
NE FL coast will meander off the SE coast while a ridge axis
remains situated from the Mid Atlantic states down the spine of
the Appalachians (a wedge).

The precipitation associated with the shortwave should taper off from
west to east this evening for most locales. A brief dry period is
anticipated Wednesday, although we will continue to be wedged.
Precip on the backside of the low off the SE coast should begin to
spread onshore and into the wedge tomorrow evening/overnight. Right
now, temps look to remain in the middle to upper 30s, but the models
may not be handling dewpoints upstream in the wedge very well -
especially at precip onset. The weak low pressure offshore may end
up reinforcing the wedge and bringing those mid/upper 20s dews
further SW. Will have to watch P-Type closely.

Have bumped MaxT`s down a degree or two within the wedge tomorrow.

NListemaa

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
CaryWx said:
I'm thinking some of this is overdone
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Maybe. That wind chill is going to have a serious bite. I’ll be dripping my faucets. No one is getting the white Christmas they wanted but the cold centered around the holidays is something any weather Goober can appreciate. This is rarefied air and we’ll look back on it many years from now and smile.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Maybe. That wind chill is going to have a serious bite. I’ll be dripping my faucets. No one is getting the white Christmas they wanted but the cold centered around the holidays is something any weather Goober can appreciate. This is rarefied air and we’ll look back on it many years from now and smile.
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I’ve got an air compressor and a hose pipe… I’ll be the most popular Dad in the neighborhood come Saturday morning
 
NCSNOW said:
Im gonna give a try mysellf. Ill probably cause ice to build up in hose and back into house knowing my luck. Get the wife in a great mood before 20 descend upon us to eat lol.
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Before you start… run a cycle of the washing machine with hot water… that should keep the pipes plenty warm while your making it
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Maybe. That wind chill is going to have a serious bite. I’ll be dripping my faucets. No one is getting the white Christmas they wanted but the cold centered around the holidays is something any weather Goober can appreciate. This is rarefied air and we’ll look back on it many years from now and smile.
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It’s cold enough, most people could easily make a snow gun out of their hoses outside, just to make a white Christmas easily in your own yard! The colder the better and easier
 
griteater said:
The wave dropping down after the Arctic blast has a decent look to it now on the modeling, but an issue I see is this…what we’d like to see as the wave drops down is a jet streak behind it to drive energy and lift into the base of the trough in the left exit region of the jet streak (a key feature in the Jan 2003 setup for example). With this one, the jet streak is weakening, and thus, the dynamics aren’t there for it to really explode like it needs to in the base of the trough. On the loop, it looks like the increasing jet flow from the west is breaking down our digging trough via an anti-cyclonic wave break (the top part of the ridge behind it is toppling over and the whole jet dynamics are weakening). I will continue to watch of course, but I suspect this isn’t something that is going to suddenly improve on the modeling. Of course, now that I state this, the happy hour GFS will assuredly go bonkers with it and look good

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I did a lot of digging to find this one, but I think December 16-17 1973 is legitimately the best pattern match out there to next week. Wasn't easy trying to find cases where you had big +EPO, +PNA, east-central US trough, & a ridge just offshore Atlantic Canada


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Tarheel1 said:
It’s cold enough, most people could easily make a snow gun out of their hoses outside, just to make a white Christmas easily in your own yard! The colder the better and easier
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No, it requires an air compressor or pressure washer and spray nozzles for correct atomization . Also, there must be a nucleation nozzle to create the ice crystals. It's not as easy as just spraying water in the air.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I did a lot of digging to find this one, but I think December 16-17 1973 is legitimately the best pattern match out there to next week. Wasn't easy trying to find cases where you had big +EPO, +PNA, east-central US trough, & a ridge just offshore Atlantic Canada


View attachment 127899
View attachment 127897
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Here's a daily gif of that event. This is a very rare case of getting snow with a ridge over SE Canada. The only reason that worked was because of a deeply cold air mass over Central Canada. Another similarity between this upcoming look and the Dec 1973 storm. By the time it reached the NE, there was ice.
ezgif-5-c50c383686.gifezgif-5-57995127fc.gif
 
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