bigstick10
Member
Blue Ridge, GA forecast Moderate snow accumulations.....
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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
If we can calm down the pacific low even more and back it up, and encourage more blocking on top, then runs will get good, but that’s a big if
packfan98
Moderator
Let’s stop arguing about trivial stuff in this thread please. Thanks.
Man… getting a chance to look at that ICON run again and the temperature drop. I thought it was on crack when it first showed that last night, but honestly the Euro and GFS aren’t to far off from it
Don’t look at the 12z CFS to save your hearts
Check Whamby
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Something you don’t see every winter!
Enjoy - I’m definitely jealous
SimeonNC
Member
So I just took a look at the ICON and GFS and both models have Metrolina into the upper teens/lower 20s by mid day Friday. Woah
bigstick10
Member
That is not even in the forecast from conservative FFC
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Is it really that unusual for all of Iowa to be under a Winter Storm Watch ? Seems like that happens a few times every winter.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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That’s a negative . And before the upgrade to blizzard warning happens Thursday, the last blizzard warnings was ‘09 or ‘12, so those don’t happen every year either. (DBQ)
This is going to be the fiercest winter storm a large portion of the country has seen since maybe 2011 with that February blizzard. A lot of these Midwest/plains states see a lot of nickel and dime fropas but not many big dogs due to lack of good moisture.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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This may trend to a glorified fropa, if the models follow the trends of the NAM and Icon tonight! Not good trends at all so far!
Why is the icon so cold 
Brent
Member
It was 52 today and I'm gonna miss it ? 
Remember the icon is warm biased
18z MMFS increased backend snowfall slightly for some areas.
End of that one got the eye popping a bit
The Icon continues to be crazy, if not more crazy...
Late afternoon temps on Friday, this would be unheard of for an afternoon, and I just don't see it.
Late afternoon temps on Friday, this would be unheard of for an afternoon, and I just don't see it.
The clipper?
Yeah that’s the energy models are eyeing for giving us a possible system at the tail end of this cold
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the ICON do a good job with the February 2021 outbreak?
I mean here is the 12z GFS next to the 12z Icon for Friday morning, maybe it isn't crazy, but continue to prove itself to be a pretty reliable model...
I think I remember everyone getting pissed off about it being the first one to hold the arctic air west, but I'm not sure if that is what you were referring to.
ICON is likely overdone, but I think the differences is also due to timing of the front. NAM is around 20 here at the same timeframe, but NAM is slower than GFS/ICON on the frontal passage.
Energy coming in.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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0Z GFS not horrible. This is the frontal band, none from the storm itself!?
This run looks better so far 
This trend on the GFS is quite remarkable. Just a casual 500 mile jump east in 5 runs Almost tried to pull the upper level low over northern NC and is breaking containment with some snow showers. Cool I guess??
Gfs had a quick change to snow well SE this run. Good times
Brent
Member
AccuWeather is probably wrong but still fun to see ?
Workable for 1000 please! Ridge taller and more west. Ahhh GFS progressive bias is a great thing.
Oh man
We’re really slowing/amping up the pattern thanks to the pacific jet backing off + -NAO 
Gfs is probably going to Miller B off Hatteras/ORF
Isn’t this funny. We’re kicking the warm up can down the road now ? but like actually
This trend is incredible 
Stormlover
Member
I still see the old one when I go there and view it...
Why are we trending to an actually good pattern again ? +PNA trying to go up and now back to a very strong -NAO west based.. 