• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

Tarheel1 said:
Can’t wait for another Halloween snowstorm for SC! That kickstarted the best winter ever!
Click to expand...
That was a very decent winter… even though my area had a monumental buster forecast in February… 8-14 inches forecasted as the storm began and ended up with a slushy half inch
 
SD said:
There are some hints on the seasonal models that are encouraging with the pv possibly residing on our side of the pole for once, a big pac ridge, and -nao. My biggest fear for this winter is slowly going away from a big SER to a strong TPV in Canada with mediocre ridging in both oceans with a zonal flow across the conus
Click to expand...
Shane, based on what you said, would we still get cold at times you think? Not sure many knew December would be that warm like it ended up being. I feel like if the pacific is in decent shape, we will get really cold at times, especially if the -NAO shows up. Third year niñas are tricky because not many sample sizes for them
 
From my 56 years here in NC, cold October and Novembers usually flip back above normal for the heart of winter. You might get a light slush fest in November before the flip, and then have to hope for something decent come February.
TW
 
SD said:
There are some hints on the seasonal models that are encouraging with the pv possibly residing on our side of the pole for once, a big pac ridge, and -nao. My biggest fear for this winter is slowly going away from a big SER to a strong TPV in Canada with mediocre ridging in both oceans with a zonal flow across the conus
Click to expand...
Shane, based on what you said, would we still get cold at times you think? Not sure many knew December would be that warm like it ended up being. I feel like if the pacific is in decent shape, we will get really cold at times, especially if the -NAO shows up. Third year niñas are tricky because not many sample sizes for the
NickyBGuarantee said:
A 2000-2001 analog for this winter… still too early to tell .. we need that -NAO to really get excited but I’m already excited with the +PNA support for the early season.View attachment 122850
Click to expand...
I know alot of the seasonal models, so far, are going with a -nao. Would be good to know how the pacific was with la niña in that year in 2000. Could be real good clues for this winter imo
 
Last edited:
Not sure how good the source is but saw this article linked from Twitter:

Suggests higher than average Siberian snow coverage now could make the PV weaker this winter, supporting a -AO
 
ajr said:
Not sure how good the source is but saw this article linked from Twitter:

Suggests higher than average Siberian snow coverage now could make the PV weaker this winter, supporting a -AO
Click to expand...

Yeah, that’s Judah Cohen’s Snow Advancement Index (SAI). He swears by it, but I think it has mixed results. Regardless, we’re off to a good start.
2E3E1440-CC65-4C1C-ADAA-2B2A74899A51.jpeg
 
Last edited:
Tarheel1 said:
Can’t wait for another Halloween snowstorm for SC! That kickstarted the best winter ever!
Click to expand...
That ULL track for the time of the year was such an anomaly. I doubt we'll see another one of those so far South in a long time. If I remember correctly, even JB thought it'd correct back into the Virginia area. Short range models were honking pretty hard, even hours before, and the NWS didn't bite. ULLs are extremely hard to forecast, impact wise.
 
b7aca5172fb1553579c050a87591f935.jpg

Winter storm Elliott is going to be the one!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
weatherfide said:
That predominant northwest flow is not conducive to recharging our soil moisture lost after nearly 6 weeks of no rain. The cold is not good if it's just modified, dry arctic air rushing in every 3 days.
Click to expand...
Good clipper flow, FTW! ☃️
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm telling you...we might have a harsh winter, but the putting eggs in the SCE basket is a good way to set yourself up for disappointment.
Click to expand...

I normally dont buy things like this, but something is strangely up with insects and animals. The ants have been invading my house constantly and now both of my bee hives have left in the middle of fall nectar flow to find better hive sites.. I'm starting to think we have a blistering cold winter coming. May not be snowy, but we may end up sick of it.
 
Arcc said:
I normally dont buy things like this, but something is strangely up with insects and animals. The ants have been invading my house constantly and now both of my bee hives have left in the middle of fall nectar flow to find better hive sites.. I'm starting to think we have a blistering cold winter coming. May not be snowy, but we may end up sick of it.
Click to expand...
Hope you're right. I'm waiting to see when and if we get a big bird migration. The leaves seem to be changing earlier this year.
 
Rain Cold said:
Hope you're right. I'm waiting to see when and if we get a big bird migration. The leaves seem to be changing earlier this year.
Click to expand...
What are the persimmon seeds looking like??
Saw a wooly worm yesterday it had a huge central brown band maybe 60% of its body and two tiny tips of black, maybe 20 and 20 % each??
 
Arcc said:
I normally dont buy things like this, but something is strangely up with insects and animals. The ants have been invading my house constantly and now both of my bee hives have left in the middle of fall nectar flow to find better hive sites.. I'm starting to think we have a blistering cold winter coming. May not be snowy, but we may end up sick of it.
Click to expand...

Has the lack of rain and cooler temps not contributed to this some?
 
Coolest October since 2011. Winter of 2012 was very warm with little snow. Also was a La Niña. Sure hope we don’t repeat that. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Coolest October since 2011. Winter of 2012 was very warm with little snow. Also was a La Niña. Sure hope we don’t repeat that. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The one big thing about that winter is that even though October was cool, the Polar vortex was already showing signs that it was going to be very wound up and that we were would most likely have a predominately positive AO for the winter.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Coolest October since 2011. Winter of 2012 was very warm with little snow. Also was a La Niña. Sure hope we don’t repeat that. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Hopefully! We are due for sure . Most pleasant winter ever . Ain’t nobody got time for brutal cold !
 
You all know my (woolly worm type) thoughts, but I've seldom seen winter forecast work out for anybody. Just get me to Thanksgiving, and I'll start looking at the long-range models / indices for two-week pattern changes. We have to live closer to the present than too far in the future.
 
Chazwin said:
The one big thing about that winter is that even though October was cool, the Polar vortex was already showing signs that it was going to be very wound up and that we were would most likely have a predominately positive AO for the winter.
Click to expand...

So are we not seeing that so far this October? Sorry I don’t read much into the polar vortex


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Coolest October since 2011. Winter of 2012 was very warm with little snow. Also was a La Niña. Sure hope we don’t repeat that. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t equate a cold October with a Warm Winter. For instance, 2009 was a well below average October, and then 2010 was a cold and snowy winter. However, the PDO continues to remain solidly negative, as well as the moderate La Niña tele-connects to several bouts of the Southeast Ridge. However, the current state of the PV and the Eurasian snow cover argues that we’ll see multiple Arctic outbreaks somewhere in the US (unlike 2012).
 
Ollie Williams said:
I wouldn’t equate a cold October with a Warm Winter. For instance, 2009 was a well below average October, and then 2010 was a cold and snowy winter. However, the PDO continues to remain solidly negative, as well as the moderate La Niña tele-connects to several bouts of the Southeast Ridge. However, the current state of the PV and the Eurasian snow cover argues that we’ll see multiple Arctic outbreaks somewhere in the US (unlike 2012).
Click to expand...

Thanks for that! We saw a white Christmas that year. Could be interesting!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
J.C. said:
Has the lack of rain and cooler temps not contributed to this some?
Click to expand...
Doubtful, the wildflowers are incredible this year because we received good rains here in August and Sept and while cool and nice it hasn’t been really abnormally cold.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I wouldn’t equate a cold October with a Warm Winter. For instance, 2009 was a well below average October, and then 2010 was a cold and snowy winter. However, the PDO continues to remain solidly negative, as well as the moderate La Niña tele-connects to several bouts of the Southeast Ridge. However, the current state of the PV and the Eurasian snow cover argues that we’ll see multiple Arctic outbreaks somewhere in the US (unlike 2012).
Click to expand...
I think the pacific is trending more +PDO state. Whether that lasts, is anyone's guess this far out. This is the time where people will come up with forecasts on what he/she thinks will happen in boreal winter.
 
Itryatgolf said:
I think the pacific is trending more +PDO state. Whether that lasts, is anyone's guess this far out. This is the time where people will come up with forecasts on what he/she thinks will happen in boreal winter.
Click to expand...
Nope, still strongly negative because of the warm ocean waters along the Aleutians. The warm waters along the coast of California do not matter much with that.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Information on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability
www.ncei.noaa.gov www.ncei.noaa.gov
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm telling you...we might have a harsh winter, but the putting eggs in the SCE basket is a good way to set yourself up for disappointment.
Click to expand...
Yep just posting things I’m seeing. I certainly love seeing positives vs negatives at this point in the year but we all know how fast things turn to poop. Plus we live in the south so you can’t expect wall to wall cold for months in end especially in this climate. But I see big opportunity for upside for our region this winter.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Nope, still strongly negative because of the warm ocean waters along the Aleutians. The warm waters along the coast of California do not matter much with that.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Information on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability
www.ncei.noaa.gov www.ncei.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
Do you think this winter will be different than last winter? Triple dip niñas are rare
 
Itryatgolf said:
Do you think this winter will be different than last winter? Triple dip niñas are rare
Click to expand...
Personally, I think we’re lining up to have much more of a classical looking Niña when compared to the last two years. A front loaded winter that is below average through the first half of January and then we probably torch late January and much of February. I still think most of us will end up a degree or two above average for the total winter.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top