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Tropical Ian Ianland Thread

SD said:
The bust line is way west of rdu unless you are considering going from 6-8 to 2-4 a bust. Once this starts turning left and getting more extratropical there will be 2 corridors of heavy rain one along and left of the track and the second east and northeast on the east side of the mid level dry punch. This isn't going to be a late summer/ early September system where the heavy rain is more likely to stay pinned closer to the circulation
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Yep, will be nice to see the actual track get somewhat nailed down in a day or so. Also as dry as it’s been it will take a little bit for the ground to catch up.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I think so. If you're west of Raleigh I think the bust level is high. If you're expecting more rain than you typically get in a thunderstorm or two. Just my opinion. But yeah if this does take a hard left into the piedmont, more rain. But I think this thing just from climo stays closer to the coast.
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This isn’t a normal climo set up though. Again the hurricane is not the only factor leading to heavy rain.
 
jeremyt said:
Yep, will be nice to see the actual track get somewhat nailed down in a day or so.
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Indeed it makes a huge difference on impacts locally. Get something like the nam and UK and you are looking at tropical storm wind getting as far N as say my backyard and rdu with 4-8 inches of rain. Get a cmc/gfs solution and it's a breezy day with 2-4 inches of rain
 
Chazwin said:
This isn’t a normal climo set up though. Again the hurricane is not the only factor leading to heavy rain.
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Exactly, it's getting pulled from the Cold Front and additional jet extensions. This isn't a typical landfalling hurricane coming up the east side of Florida favoring Northern SC and Southern NC. Could it make it that far North? Of course but about 90% of available guidance says no.
 
iGRXY said:
Exactly, it's getting pulled from the Cold Front and additional jet extensions. This isn't a typical landfalling hurricane coming up the east side of Florida favoring Northern SC and Southern NC. Could it make it that far North? Of course but about 90% of available guidance says no.
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Yes and for people that are still on this “not buying into the hard left turn” to the NNW or NW, the UK, as well as all other modeling is still showing that quite clearly. It’s just a difference of where it turns
 
It'll be interesting to see how far north this ultimately gets. If it gets stuck in western nc/north GA then kind of meanders east there will be potential to extend the rain window out to Monday or Tuesday and add another 1-2 inches of rain
 
deltadog03 said:
Hoping yall get some very beneficial rains up there to my north
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Ive invested heavily in it Grass seed.
SD is spot on. The funneling of HP with NE wind and counter clockwise IAN circulation will do the trick.
Watch the river flood tommorow st johns river. Gonna be epic even though its on east side to central Florida. Same mechanisms at play as storm exits, pushing tide water back inland as river is getting loaded up today an tonight from a foot of rain. This will be a Florida benchmark storm when all is said an done.
 
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 pm Wednesday: Gusty easterly winds will steadily increase
early in the short term, as the gradient tightens between 1030+ mb
surface high over the Northeast, and T.C. Ian, which is expected to
be making a brief excursion over the coastal waters off Jacksonville
at the start of the period. Gusts in the 20-35 mph range appear
likely from Fri morning into Fri afternoon, with the initial surge
of tropical moisture/outer bands expected to overspread our CWA
during the afternoon. Guidance remains in good agreement in turning
Ian toward the N/NW Thu night/Friday, with a second landfall (most
likely as a strong tropical storm) expected in the vicinity of
Hilton Head Fri afternoon...with continued weakening to a depression
expected as the center tracks into the western Carolinas Fri
night/Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to remain
widespread over our area from that through at least Saturday
morning, with attendant ramping up of the excessive rainfall/
localized flash flooding threat. This threat is expected to be most
pronounced across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where strong
easterly flow will augment rainfall rates, and in a somewhat narrow
axis along/just east of the cyclone track (generally just east of
the I-26 corridor) where strong/deep convergence is expected to
focus as the system takes on increasingly extra-tropical
characteristics.

In terms of the wind...gusts are expected to increase late Fri
afternoon into Fri evening, as 60+ kt E/NE LLJ shifts across the
area...with increasing chances for tropical rain bands to mix higher
momentum air to the surface, despite expected surface-based stable
layer/cold air damming (as an aside, this stability is expected to
preclude a threat for tornadoes, despite at least a portion of the
CWA being in a favorable quadrant of the cyclone). With that in
mind, it does appear that occasional tropical storm-force gusts are
a good bet, especially across the SC Piedmont later Fri afternoon
into Fri evening. Pending continued coordination with neighboring
WFOs, a Tropical Storm Watch MAY be issued for part of our area to
coincide with the 5pm Advisory from NHC.

A general consensus of guidance suggests that the remnant depression
will more or less stall somewhere in the vicinity of the foothills
on Saturday, as the quickly weakening cyclone begins to lose its
battle against the sprawling ridge of high pressure covering much of
the East. As this occurs, the suggestion is that much of the eastern
half or so of the area will become dry slotted Sat afternoon through
Sat night, while heavy rainfall will remain possible within
deformation zone region...mainly across portions of the central
Appalachians, with continued enhancement of rainfall rates possible
in these areas due to persistent...but weakening E/SE flow. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches (the bulk of which should fall through Sat
night) are expected across the much of the eastern 2/3 of the CWA,
with more like 2-4 inches across the west. The highest amounts are
still expected across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where 6 to
8 inches are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 pm Wednesday: The remnants of Ian are expected to continue
to spin down across the CWA early in the medium range, before
finally kicking out to the east in the Mon/Tue time frame in
response to a region of height falls diving southeast from the
northern Great Plains. While the widespread heavy rainfall is
expected to be more or less done at the start of the period, ample
moisture will remain in place to support some degree of showers and
locally heavy/excessive rainfall, especially across western NC. PoPs
therefore slowly trend downward through the period, with complete
drying not expected until Tue/Wed. Temps will remain below normal
through the period.

GSP's take on it this afternoon.
 
JHS said:
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 pm Wednesday: Gusty easterly winds will steadily increase
early in the short term, as the gradient tightens between 1030+ mb
surface high over the Northeast, and T.C. Ian, which is expected to
be making a brief excursion over the coastal waters off Jacksonville
at the start of the period. Gusts in the 20-35 mph range appear
likely from Fri morning into Fri afternoon, with the initial surge
of tropical moisture/outer bands expected to overspread our CWA
during the afternoon. Guidance remains in good agreement in turning
Ian toward the N/NW Thu night/Friday, with a second landfall (most
likely as a strong tropical storm) expected in the vicinity of
Hilton Head Fri afternoon...with continued weakening to a depression
expected as the center tracks into the western Carolinas Fri
night/Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to remain
widespread over our area from that through at least Saturday
morning, with attendant ramping up of the excessive rainfall/
localized flash flooding threat. This threat is expected to be most
pronounced across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where strong
easterly flow will augment rainfall rates, and in a somewhat narrow
axis along/just east of the cyclone track (generally just east of
the I-26 corridor) where strong/deep convergence is expected to
focus as the system takes on increasingly extra-tropical
characteristics.

In terms of the wind...gusts are expected to increase late Fri
afternoon into Fri evening, as 60+ kt E/NE LLJ shifts across the
area...with increasing chances for tropical rain bands to mix higher
momentum air to the surface, despite expected surface-based stable
layer/cold air damming (as an aside, this stability is expected to
preclude a threat for tornadoes, despite at least a portion of the
CWA being in a favorable quadrant of the cyclone). With that in
mind, it does appear that occasional tropical storm-force gusts are
a good bet, especially across the SC Piedmont later Fri afternoon
into Fri evening. Pending continued coordination with neighboring
WFOs, a Tropical Storm Watch MAY be issued for part of our area to
coincide with the 5pm Advisory from NHC.

A general consensus of guidance suggests that the remnant depression
will more or less stall somewhere in the vicinity of the foothills
on Saturday, as the quickly weakening cyclone begins to lose its
battle against the sprawling ridge of high pressure covering much of
the East. As this occurs, the suggestion is that much of the eastern
half or so of the area will become dry slotted Sat afternoon through
Sat night, while heavy rainfall will remain possible within
deformation zone region...mainly across portions of the central
Appalachians, with continued enhancement of rainfall rates possible
in these areas due to persistent...but weakening E/SE flow. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches (the bulk of which should fall through Sat
night) are expected across the much of the eastern 2/3 of the CWA,
with more like 2-4 inches across the west. The highest amounts are
still expected across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where 6 to
8 inches are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 pm Wednesday: The remnants of Ian are expected to continue
to spin down across the CWA early in the medium range, before
finally kicking out to the east in the Mon/Tue time frame in
response to a region of height falls diving southeast from the
northern Great Plains. While the widespread heavy rainfall is
expected to be more or less done at the start of the period, ample
moisture will remain in place to support some degree of showers and
locally heavy/excessive rainfall, especially across western NC. PoPs
therefore slowly trend downward through the period, with complete
drying not expected until Tue/Wed. Temps will remain below normal
through the period.

GSP's take on it this afternoon.
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Sounds like they think along and east of highway 25 is where the heaviest acid of rain will be. Makes sense as that cuts through the middle of the southern mountains
 
Appears the surge/flooding in ft myers & naples caught people off guard as most expected it north of there.
 
NCSNOW said:
Ive invested heavily in it Grass seed.
SD is spot on. The funneling of HP with NE wind and counter clockwise IAN circulation will do the trick.
Watch the river flood tommorow st johns river. Gonna be epic even though its on east side to central Florida. Same mechanisms at play as storm exits, pushing tide water back inland as river is getting loaded up today an tonight from a foot of rain. This will be a Florida benchmark storm when all is said an done.
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Seeded last Saturday, these rains will be perfect!
 
From RAH (it's going to be windy regardless of the category of the storm):


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds and Isolated Tornadoes Possible Friday and
Saturday...

By Friday morning, the center of Ian is currently expected to be
somewhere off the FL/GA coast, while a 1031 mb high will be centered
across the Northeast. Cold air advection will be in full force
across the area as Ian moves towards the region. Although the exact
path of Ian is still coming together, a tightening pressure gradient
between the high to our north and Ian will help increase winds ahead
of the system across a large area. Northeasterly gusts of 35-45 mph
are possible across most areas of central NC by Friday afternoon and
will linger overnight. Rain will develop ahead of the system,
especially with excellent moist 300K isentropic upglide Friday
night. The atmosphere will slowly saturate throughout the column
early Friday, then heavier rain is expected Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning. By the end of the weekend, 2-5 inches of rain are
expected across the region. Flash flooding is possible where areas
receive a lot of rain in a short period of time, however other areas
that have been dry for a while may be able to handle the extra
rainfall to an extent. Excessive rainfall and flash flooding are
currently our greatest threats for the weekend. Isolated tornadoes
are possible, especially on the eastern half of Ian`s circulation.

The remnants of Ian will linger across the region through early next
week before pushing east/northeast. An upper ridge will build north
across the Plains for the end of the weekend, then slowly flatten
through the middle of next week. A trough will dive south across the
Great Lakes region early next week and merge with the lingering
upper circulation from Ian that remains stalled across the region,
then the low will finally lift northeast by the middle of next week.
Rain will remain in the forecast through Tuesday, with the remnant
low remaining nearby.

The cold air advection, lower heights, cloud cover and precipitation
will help keep high temperatures below normal through the long-term.
Highs across the Triad may remain in the 60s through early next
week, with areas of the southern Coastal Plain only increasing to
the low 70s. Lows will be mostly in the 50s.

Please continue to monitor for further updates as the details in
this weekend`s forecast further come together.
 
When you talk about a system going extra tropical combining with a jet and all those dynamics at play.. add in the fact that we have this storm going over water for much longer than previously thought you have to think this could be a sneaky underrated wind event for our area as a whole. Now we do have solutions that are further south and west but even in those solutions I can see a dynamic system throwing us more wind than previously thought. I know people are hesitant about being in the cool sector but I think the bands of rain we could see of heavy returns will really help to bring wind down to the ground. And if this ends up land falling like the HRRR solution and NAM around Wilmington or so we then open up the potential for real tropical storm conditions for our area.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
When you talk about a system going extra tropical combining with a jet and all those dynamics at play.. add in the fact that we have this storm going over water for much longer than previously thought you have to think this could be a sneaky underrated wind event for our area as a whole. Now we do have solutions that are further south and west but even in those solutions I can see a dynamic system throwing us more wind than previously thought. I know people are hesitant about being in the cool sector but I think the bands of rain we could see of heavy returns will really help to bring wind down to the ground. And if this ends up land falling like the HRRR solution and NAM around Wilmington or so we then open up the potential for real tropical storm conditions for our area.
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yeah agree on all points. Especially if a strengthening ridge to his NE packs the gradient. The 12k nam UH tracks also show the severe threats over central and eastern NC.
 
I’m really surprised that GSP hasn’t issued Tropical Storm Watches for any of their forecast area.
 
This probably going to be rough in NC from CLT over to RDU and up into the Triad with all models showing 60+ gusts in that area. Also the area from Rock Hill and Beaufort and northeast of there in SC.
 
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