Thanks Thor. I appreciate your reassurance. Although I already "knew" the answer, it's always hearing an objective point opinion. Families back home are obviously concerned, but they only watch the news and can get a tad overbearing on things they say from hundreds of miles away. If you're going to ride out a hurricane in Florida, I figure Disney is probably the best place to be in the entire state. Massive food and water supply. Power shouldn't be lost. Massive staff to assist with issues. On and on. I'm off property, so I'm solo, but at least her and her 8 year old daughter are at the safest place possible.
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Tropical Ian Ianland Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
jeremyt
Member
Not to clog the main thread. The amount of power outages so far in Fl is mind blowing. I just question why they have lineman working to restore now when the worste is yet to come.
Sure seemed like the HRRR was fixing to send Ian into Myrtle or even ILM.
Avalanche
Member
That leaves a lot more time over gulf stream if it isnt already shredded to pieces by then.
If it follows the NAM, then it would have bent back a little more to the west and come in around Georgetown… obviously though that’s still a good ways outside the HRRR’s range
12z NAM takes it into Bulls Bay again in the Awendaw/McLellanville area. Probably best case scenario for Charleston.
IF YOU TAKE THE NAM AT ITS WORD - it brings borderline hurricane conditions into the sandhills of NC and the pee dee of SC.
iGRXY
Member
3K NAM does not agree with the 12K. LF in South Georgia. Split the difference and it's near Hilton Head which is where I expect and the NHC have currently. Still out of the Nam's range.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I really don't understand why people are buying mesoscale models against a currently high-end cat 4 hurricane. It's like using a wrench to hammer a nail into the wall. It might work but it won't do a good job. I'd stick to globals for now and only use the mesoscale for short-term features, not paths which vary from globals.
Except the UKMET has been in agreement the entire time
ICON looks closer to 0z than 6z through hour 51, 15MB stronger at 971MB. Looks like it's about 100 miles SE of Savannah.
GSP has increased rainfall totals… widespread 4-6”
Looks like it's going to be CHS or just north this run. Also notable that it is significantly slower than the NAM. Still well offshore 1PM friday.
Well, looks like ICON took it in to SC right around Kiawah Island. Thats not a good thing if, you know, you're a fan of Charleston as a place. It's going to push a lot of water into the peninsula.
Some folks that live along the western edge of the precip shield are going to bust high/low but but that's always going to happen
I wouldn't trust a CAM right now but we just saw the globals error about 75-100 miles on their 60-72 hour forecast. That makes the difference between landfall near CHS or up near myrtle or never getting off shore of Fl
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah I think so. If you're west of Raleigh I think the bust level is high. If you're expecting more rain than you typically get in a thunderstorm or two. Just my opinion. But yeah if this does take a hard left into the piedmont, more rain. But I think this thing just from climo stays closer to the coast.
UKMET is Myrtle Beach to Siler City.
The bust line is way west of rdu unless you are considering going from 6-8 to 2-4 a bust. Once this starts turning left and getting more extratropical there will be 2 corridors of heavy rain one along and left of the track and the second east and northeast on the east side of the mid level dry punch. This isn't going to be a late summer/ early September system where the heavy rain is more likely to stay pinned closer to the circulation