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Tropical Ian Ianland Thread

Tornadocane said:
OMG Thank You. I am a half mile to the NNW of North Perry Airport. This was my Tornado.
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I have a good friend 4 miles east of that airport, she said it was loud. That area is so dense, any tornado that touches down will do a ton of damage.
 
J.C. said:
I have a good friend 4 miles east of that airport, she said it was loud. That area is so dense, any tornado that touches down will do a ton of damage.
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Oh Yeah. That's Hollywood City. The winds had to be anywhere from 60-80MPH for a minute. I can't imagine what an EF2 would do to that area. There are like trailers parks in random areas around Hollywood too.

I don't care if I see nothing for the rest of the Hurricane Season.

I take it back.
 
Stevo24 said:
Iv already accepted my defeat as I watch this go further and further east. I went from looking at 4+ inches of rain to now being lucky if we get 2.
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Your girl said the same thing! ?
My first guess is 5”+ for GSP proper. Winds won’t be an issue. Models over hype them time and time again
 
Tarheel1 said:
Your girl said the same thing! ?
My first guess is 5”+ for GSP proper. Winds won’t be an issue. Models over hype them time and time again
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There are some howlers up at 850mb though.. Some of that heavier precip might just surprise some wind wise. + the tightening pressure gradient...
 
I posted in the main Ian thread, but I'm stuck in Orlando (Disney Springs area) and on the 6th floor of a hotel. My flight is canceled, so I'm not leaving. I have rounded up enough water for a couple days and enough-ish food. My girlfriend and her daughter are at the Dolphin but they are supposed to check out Thurs morning due to no vacancy. She's debating leaving Wed morning to get back to ATL driving. I told her it is likely too late, especially since she's safe at a Disney hotel. She has a reservation at an off property hotel near me checking in Thurs. I'm just worried about us getting home (me flying whenever that is and her driving). Any "professional" thoughts?
 
Gopack42 said:
I posted in the main Ian thread, but I'm stuck in Orlando (Disney Springs area) and on the 6th floor of a hotel. My flight is canceled, so I'm not leaving. I have rounded up enough water for a couple days and enough-ish food. My girlfriend and her daughter are at the Dolphin but they are supposed to check out Thurs morning due to no vacancy. She's debating leaving Wed morning to get back to ATL driving. I told her it is likely too late, especially since she's safe at a Disney hotel. She has a reservation at an off property hotel near me checking in Thurs. I'm just worried about us getting home (me flying whenever that is and her driving). Any "professional" thoughts?
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It seems like your both set up in safe places and it's a bit too late to get on the road, I'd just ride it out. I've been to Disney during a tropical events and actually had one of my best days ever in the parks because people weren't back yet when they opened back up. I wouldn't plan on much in the way of flights until Friday most likely. You guys are in way better shape than many and all the hotels are probably full with people who evacuated from the coast. Orlando tends to hold up well.
 
The amount of emergency warnings of tornado warnings in the middle of the night was unnerving. We are nowhere close to the eye. The winds have been constant. Watching the local news last night and the anchors who have lived here forever have never seen anything like this being so far from the storm. The meteorologist were even amazed at the amount of wind the storms were making. Praying for the West Coast of Florida. This system is no joke! Currently in Palm Beach Shores on the East Coast.
 
BullCityWx said:
i know it's well out in it's run but the last LR HRRR swung Ian way out east like the NAM has been doing.
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The ukmet not too far off from that either, don't think it can be completely dismissed....
 
metwannabe said:
The ukmet not too far off from that either, don't think it can be completely dismissed....
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Agreed and the UK is really as adamant as the ICON with how sharp it hooks the storm back to the NW. Obviously it’s gonna be over land for around 24 hours or so, but if it holds it overall structure well, it really could strengthen back up some before coming back ashore. The environment of the GA/SC isn’t bad
 
WRAL in Raleigh now has Ian running west of where Hugo did back in 89. We didn't get much if any rain from Hugo here. Why aren't the projected totals going down?
 
Avalanche said:
WRAL in Raleigh now has Ian running west of where Hugo did back in 89. We didn't get much if any rain from Hugo here. Why aren't the projected totals going down?
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Different setup altogether. Hugo just a rapid moving consolidated TC, this will be a system rapidly transitioning to ET, that HP will be pumping onshore flow, jet dynamics different, coastal front traveling inland, all equal higher amounts much further away from TC center.
 
Avalanche said:
WRAL in Raleigh now has Ian running west of where Hugo did back in 89. We didn't get much if any rain from Hugo here. Why aren't the projected totals going down?
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Because it’s not just the hurricane that is gonna produce the rainfall. Strong moist flow off the Atlantic, stalled out coastal, front, and strong jet dynamics coming in from the west. Also I think you’re in an area that could see a good chance at tornadoes
 
Thor said:
It seems like your both set up in safe places and it's a bit too late to get on the road, I'd just ride it out. I've been to Disney during a tropical events and actually had one of my best days ever in the parks because people weren't back yet when they opened back up. I wouldn't plan on much in the way of flights until Friday most likely. You guys are in way better shape than many and all the hotels are probably full with people who evacuated from the coast. Orlando tends to hold up well.
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Thanks Thor. I appreciate your reassurance. Although I already "knew" the answer, it's always hearing an objective point opinion. Families back home are obviously concerned, but they only watch the news and can get a tad overbearing on things they say from hundreds of miles away. If you're going to ride out a hurricane in Florida, I figure Disney is probably the best place to be in the entire state. Massive food and water supply. Power shouldn't be lost. Massive staff to assist with issues. On and on. I'm off property, so I'm solo, but at least her and her 8 year old daughter are at the safest place possible.
 
3K NAM does not agree with the 12K. LF in South Georgia. Split the difference and it's near Hilton Head which is where I expect and the NHC have currently. Still out of the Nam's range.
 
I really don't understand why people are buying mesoscale models against a currently high-end cat 4 hurricane. It's like using a wrench to hammer a nail into the wall. It might work but it won't do a good job. I'd stick to globals for now and only use the mesoscale for short-term features, not paths which vary from globals.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I really don't understand why people are buying mesoscale models against a currently high-end cat 4 hurricane. It's like using a wrench to hammer a nail into the wall. It might work but it won't do a good job. I'd stick to globals for now and only use the mesoscale for short-term features, not paths which vary from globals.
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Except the UKMET has been in agreement the entire time
 
Ukie going way up the coast. Is this gonna end up being a bust for some of us?
 
ForsythSnow said:
I really don't understand why people are buying mesoscale models against a currently high-end cat 4 hurricane. It's like using a wrench to hammer a nail into the wall. It might work but it won't do a good job. I'd stick to globals for now and only use the mesoscale for short-term features, not paths which vary from globals.
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I wouldn't trust a CAM right now but we just saw the globals error about 75-100 miles on their 60-72 hour forecast. That makes the difference between landfall near CHS or up near myrtle or never getting off shore of Fl
 
Stevo24 said:
Ukie going way up the coast. Is this gonna end up being a bust for some of us?
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Yeah I think so. If you're west of Raleigh I think the bust level is high. If you're expecting more rain than you typically get in a thunderstorm or two. Just my opinion. But yeah if this does take a hard left into the piedmont, more rain. But I think this thing just from climo stays closer to the coast.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I think so. If you're west of Raleigh I think the bust level is high. If you're expecting more rain than you typically get in a thunderstorm or two. Just my opinion. But yeah if this does take a hard left into the piedmont, more rain. But I think this thing just from climo stays closer to the coast.
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The bust line is way west of rdu unless you are considering going from 6-8 to 2-4 a bust. Once this starts turning left and getting more extratropical there will be 2 corridors of heavy rain one along and left of the track and the second east and northeast on the east side of the mid level dry punch. This isn't going to be a late summer/ early September system where the heavy rain is more likely to stay pinned closer to the circulation
 
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