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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

RollTide18 said:
Gonna be pretty bummed if Columbus and Macon see flakes and I don't lol

Reminds me of December 09 when Hattiesburg got 4 inches of snow I think and 100 miles NE got nothing.
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It's sad to look at models showing southern or coastal areas getting more but the trend is almost always NW
 
bouncycorn said:
For you GA folks, 13/20 GEFS members now show some sort of snow event in GA mainland (excluding extreme nga mountains). This variable has been increasing as well as the number of members showing at least 2". (which is 6/20)
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Can you post?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Token sleet pellets and flurries all the way down to Columbus & Macon GA by 114 on this Euro run. Everything slowed down again
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NZ621VC.gif
 
Euro brings Birmingham and Atlanta some snow flurries w/ the clipper directly underneath the upper level low. Falls apart on this run before getting into SC and central NC

ecmwf_ptype_nc_25.png
 
Any glaring, general differences between those that show more snow vs. those who don't? E.g. Temps, speed of system, precip shield, etc


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Rah NWS excited about our chances.... Not

Pattern recognition strongly suggests that the more robust the moisture influx into the region (the warmer aloft it will get), and conversely the less robust the moisture influx, the cooler it will be. Bottom line, this appears to be a real no win situation for snow lovers with the supply of cold dry air just not there, and the stronger the influx of WAA to generate precipitation this far north means a warmer mid level forecast - if the models get wetter they will get warmer. The best chance of any snow showers may come at the tail end of the system, as the cold air chases the moisture (but this rarely brings measurable snow for us). This would be Friday if it occurs

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metwannabe said:
Rah NWS excited about our chances.... Not

Pattern recognition strongly suggests that the more robust the moisture influx into the region (the warmer aloft it will get), and conversely the less robust the moisture influx, the cooler it will be. Bottom line, this appears to be a real no win situation for snow lovers with the supply of cold dry air just not there, and the stronger the influx of WAA to generate precipitation this far north means a warmer mid level forecast - if the models get wetter they will get warmer. The best chance of any snow showers may come at the tail end of the system, as the cold air chases the moisture (but this rarely brings measurable snow for us). This would be Friday if it occurs

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Makes since, 6z gfs didnt look to good for GA this run, but the rest of the run looked great. As webb said, 13-21 i believe? Thats the time frame we could score big
 
FFC’s take on this:
There still remains little run to run consistency with the wintry
precip potential at the end of the week. Amplified upper level
longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will usher some of the
coldest air this early winter season over the southeast. A series
of upper level disturbances look to traverse the region in the
upper level flow, but timing, southern extent, and frequency
continue to vary between models and run to run. The 850 mb
temperatures Friday and Saturday could drop as low at -14C
(according to the latest GFS), and with sub freezing temperatures
at the surface, the thermal profile would support all snow. That
being said, have continued only slight chance pops and no
accumulations for Thursday night/Friday morning and again Friday
Night/Saturday morning. Highs through the end of the week will be
in the 40s, with 30s in the mountains.
 
I really don't think it's going to do much, accumulating snowfall wise in GA from the coastal low. Some places may see a dusting at best, but for most won't see any accumulations. First of all, the heavier precipitation seems like it will stay south and east of GA. However, some of the heaviest precip could make it's way over south GA. That's been consistent. Secondly, the surface temperatures are looking like they will be too warm to support any snowfall accumulations.

For NC, isolated area's could get anywhere from 1-2." But, for the most part there in NC, accumulations would be generally light.

On to that upper level disturbance (clipper), now the mountains of GA could see decent accumulations from that. Maybe a dusting to 1" for the valley's, and up to 2" for the higher elevations.

Will the outside of the mountains see snow in GA? Yes, the chance at seeing snowfall is there, but no significant accumulations.

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What about the clipper that comes in on the end of this ? That will be the only chance up this way. What is Euro showing? Don't have access atm.
 
NWTNWX said:
What about the clipper that comes in on the end of this ? That will be the only chance up this way. What is Euro showing? Don't have access atm.
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TN looks good with that clipper system. Euro shows anywhere from a dusting to 2" depending on where you're located. That's using the 10:1 ratio though. Most places in TN are likely to see a dusting to 1" and some area's will see little to no accumulations. Higher elevations of TN could see up to 2."

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Yeah I need to go to class in a couple but that's the wrong time period. The time period is Thursday-Friday.
 
Things to take note of is the PNA ridge strength trends. It's been looking a little stronger each run and in response appears to be diving energy a little more south and west in response.

There's been a trend that the longwave trough has also been looking more positively orientated also with each run as a result.

One thing to also note is just how cold and dense the arctic airmass is and might not reflect well in the 850mb scheme...thought I would mention that since it has been some time since a real shot of arctic air intruded the South.
 
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