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Misc Stock Market

In 2018 SPY sold off around 25% from just the rate hikes to 2.5%. Today SPY is down 9% from ATH’s….makes you wonder, just how far can this fall, with record inflation, QT, rate hikes and Russia. ?‍♂️

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severestorm said:
I think the dollar is so weak, they know doing something drastic now will expose their charade. Most had enough purchasing power to absorb the interest rate hikes in earlier times to a point, not anymore.
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What do you mean by USD is weak? What are you comparing it to?
 
I still don’t know what Upstart does. They claim to have some “AI” that screens people for loans outside of income and credit score. I guess those two things are irrelevant for handing out loans…where have we seen that before…?

It’s a great story to pump a stock from $20 to $400 in a few months.


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KyloG said:
I still don’t know what Upstart does. They claim to have some “AI” that screens people for loans outside of income and credit score. I guess those two things are irrelevant for handing out loans…where have we seen that before…?

It’s a great story to pump a stock from $20 to $400 in a few months.


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Looking back there were so many obvious shorts back in 2021.

Roku was one for me. I was 100% sure it was way too high but just didn't have the balls to do it.
 
Broken024 said:
What do you mean by USD is weak? What are you comparing it to?
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The crazy thing is that relative to other currencies, it’s strengthened recently. Central banks have unleashed inflation across the world, unfortunately. The Dollar Index is up over 100 now.

www.cnbc.com

Check out DXY US Dollar Currency Index's stock price (.DXY) in real time

Get DXY US Dollar Currency Index (.DXY:Exchange) real-time stock quotes, news, price and financial information from CNBC.
www.cnbc.com
 
KyloG said:
I still don’t know what Upstart does. They claim to have some “AI” that screens people for loans outside of income and credit score. I guess those two things are irrelevant for handing out loans…where have we seen that before…?

It’s a great story to pump a stock from $20 to $400 in a few months.


View attachment 117336
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I remember when that was a darling stock, and now it’s down 75%. Haha wow.
 
I still don't understand why the Fintech names have been absolutely crushed....SQ/BLOCK was trading at a high multiple at $280/share but now it's trading at 5x trailing rev which I think is very reasonable. I think many of these solid companies are going to be great buys if we can get a market flush in the coming months.

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$PYPL has given up almost 4 years of stock gains...in that timeframe, rev has grown from $13B to $26B.

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Rain Cold said:
All these companies have been inflated, some by a lot.
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Definitely - we are having a valuation reset. These are 4-5x sales...a year ago that would be dirt cheap....now maybe not. They are showing solid growth. Will be interesting to see what the market thinks valuations should be.
 
Twitter is considering using a “poison pill” to fight off Musk’s takeover bid. Damn, wish I had puts now! ?

www.nytimes.com

Twitter Counters a Musk Takeover With a Plan to Thwart the Bid

The company is intent on trying to fend off the billionaire’s bid to buy it in a deal that could be worth more than $40 billion.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
superjames1992 said:
Twitter is considering using a “poison pill” to fight off Musk’s takeover bid. Damn, wish I had puts now! ?

www.nytimes.com

Twitter Counters a Musk Takeover With a Plan to Thwart the Bid

The company is intent on trying to fend off the billionaire’s bid to buy it in a deal that could be worth more than $40 billion.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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They are desperate to prevent truth from being told in a public forum. They HAVE to censor people so they can hold on to their corrupt power. They don't even care if anyone sees what they are doing anymore....they just don't want people to talk about it. If we unify and are united, they will be defeated. Divided (like race, gender, sexuality, blah blah blah), they can keep us at war with ourselves, which dilutes our true power against them.
 
Next 2-3 weeks is going to be nuts. Large cap tech reports, financials too. Plus, first week of May is Fed meeting. How the market survives this…unless large cap tech crushes earnings and gives rosy guidance.

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superjames1992 said:
Twitter is considering using a “poison pill” to fight off Musk’s takeover bid. Damn, wish I had puts now! ?

www.nytimes.com

Twitter Counters a Musk Takeover With a Plan to Thwart the Bid

The company is intent on trying to fend off the billionaire’s bid to buy it in a deal that could be worth more than $40 billion.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Wouldn’t that basically mean Musk could just continue to buy stock until the other shareholders couldn’t afford anymore even at discount?
 
Monday-Tuesday would be a good time to prove that things have changed and are more like last year. I want a gap down and reverse from 432-434, then follow through. Maybe the first part can be done in futures tonight.

But man…bonds. Would’ve liked for a quiet day on Thursday there so I wouldn’t have had that in my head this weekend at times. TLT supposedly is bottoming based off stochastic, but given the circumstances, I’m not going to count on it. Next on tens is 3.1, then we likely pause and move higher until the Fed freaks. The pause may just be for one day like Wednesday (which was the real surprise).

Think what’s more likely than the gap down and set a low deal on the Monday after OPEX is that folks get trapped off big earnings because of the move being positive and too many being short, FOMC (just because too many are on one side of the boat), or April CPI when it's posted (May 11th? not sure of the exact date) because there is a real possibility that the market reacts off core CPI stripped instead of headline.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Monday-Tuesday would be a good time to prove that things have changed and are more like last year. I want a gap down and reverse from 432-434, then follow through. Maybe the first part can be done in futures tonight.

But man…bonds. Would’ve liked for a quiet day on Thursday there so I wouldn’t have had that in my head this weekend at times. TLT supposedly is bottoming based off stochastic, but given the circumstances, I’m not going to count on it. Next on tens is 3.1, then we likely pause and move higher until the Fed freaks. The pause may just be for one day like Wednesday (which was the real surprise).

Think what’s more likely than the gap down and set a low deal on the Monday after OPEX is that folks get trapped off big earnings because of the move being positive and too many being short, FOMC (just because too many are on one side of the boat), or April CPI when it's posted (May 11th? not sure of the exact date) because there is a real possibility that the market reacts off core CPI stripped instead of headline.
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Big Earnings for tech will struggle


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Storm5 said:
Big Earnings for tech will struggle


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To be fair, I thought Apple's earnings last time would suck and was wrong. There's every reason for them to suck this time too, but the whisper number is a small beat (would mention guidance, but they haven't been giving it since COVID).

And I take a different approach from you about Amazon. It's possible I'm completely wrong, but I'm not of the opinion that what happened during its last earnings has to do with that one-time Rivian thing. I think it has a lot more to do with there was apparently panic in Amazon puts after Facebook wet the bed on their earnings. The panic put buying on Amazon dragged it nearly 8% lower, and it wasn't going to take much for them on their earnings to have the puts get lit on fire. It apparently wasn't a great earnings call; the reason the move happened the next day was purely options related to burn everyone that hopped on the put side for Amazon.

But perhaps I'm incorrect and the move that happened was because algos misinterpreted the EPS number, causing it to push higher (which is why the puts got lit on fire), and this time, we'll see a negative EPS number because of the Rivian deal and the algos will hammer it due to that, causing it to drop 8-10%.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
To be fair, I thought Apple's earnings last time would suck and was wrong. There's every reason for them to suck this time too, but the whisper number is a small beat (would mention guidance, but they haven't been giving it since COVID).

And I take a different approach from you about Amazon. It's possible I'm completely wrong, but I'm not of the opinion that what happened during its last earnings has to do with that one-time Rivian thing. I think it has a lot more to do with there was apparently panic in Amazon puts after Facebook wet the bed on their earnings. The panic put buying on Amazon dragged it nearly 8% lower, and it wasn't going to take much for them on their earnings to have the puts get lit on fire. It apparently wasn't a great earnings call; the reason the move happened the next day was purely options related to burn everyone that hopped on the put side for Amazon.

But perhaps I'm incorrect and the move that happened was because algos misinterpreted the EPS number, causing it to push higher (which is why the puts got lit on fire), and this time, we'll see a negative EPS number because of the Rivian deal and the algos will hammer it due to that, causing it to drop 8-10%.
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Could be . I'm wrong most of time anyway . I'm hedged both ways for the second week of May on Amazon. 8k bucks more to the short side but I do hold a heavy upside hedge as well


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