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Misc Stock Market

Yolo poots after the fake rip at the bell ? ? hope they have good WiFi in Barbados ?
 
Bitcoin's suggesting that a lot of the cake may have been baked already to be honest right now.

Like I don't know, if there was still serious fear, it should be down another 1.5-2k points imo. It did spike down a bit on that announcement but what it's doing is just normal for it now.

Maybe it's just waiting for US futures to reopen.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Bitcoin's suggesting that a lot of the cake may have been baked already to be honest right now.

Like I don't know, if there was still serious fear, it should be down another 1.5-2k points imo. It did spike down a bit on that announcement but what it's doing is just normal for it now.

Maybe it's just waiting for US futures to reopen.
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It's just went sub 38k not sure how that suggests anything is baked in . Plus this conflict is closer to war today than it was Friday


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Storm5 said:
It's just went sub 38k not sure how that suggests anything is baked in . Plus this conflict is closer to war today than it was Friday


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I have Bitcoin down less than a percent from the Russia news now which is very meh for it in all honesty because it can react a lot harder than this.

But like I said, I suppose it could be waiting for stock futures to start tanking.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I have Bitcoin down less than a percent from the Russia news now which is very meh for it in all honesty because it can react a lot harder than this.

But like I said, I suppose it could be waiting for stock futures to start tanking.
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Or maybe you're correct with your assessment. Will be interesting to see what futures do . Down almost 2 percent in Germany


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I fill confident futures will tank tonight and tomorrow will be a blood bath but will it hold for the week? So far this market shows bad news doesn't have the staying power it once did (for now anyway), remember how we never recovered from the COVID crash, yeah me either.
 
Storm5 said:
Or maybe you're correct with your assessment. Will be interesting to see what futures do . Down almost 2 percent in Germany


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There's a Youtube channel called "Invest Answers" that is highly informative about large cap cryptos. He is my favorite person to listen to on crypto stuff. He is very "risk adverse" and provides a ton of actual data pulled from various sources and compiles it in easy to understand presentations.

He is pretty much saying that BTC is at the point right now where all of the short term retailers have sold what they are going to sell and the long term holders (and institutions) are keeping the price in the high $30's-low $40s because they will hold no matter what. I think that is a fair analysis of why we aren't dropping further with all of the negativity going on.
 
Storm5 said:
Or maybe you're correct with your assessment. Will be interesting to see what futures do . Down almost 2 percent in Germany


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Gapping down tomorrow was what I expected regardless of what happened in Ukraine. This was the options expiry pattern the last two times, for reasons that others would do a better job of explaining.

What happens after is more interesting to me...

If this is what pushes the US market over the brink outside of a day, this was just the final blow to a move toward a flash bear market happening regardless.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Gapping down tomorrow was what I expected regardless of what happened in Ukraine. This was the options expiry pattern the last two times, for reasons that others would do a better job of explaining.

What happens after is more interesting to me...

If this is what pushes the US market over the brink outside of a day, this was just the final blow to a move toward a flash bear market happening regardless.
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so is SQQQ or UPRO a better play? Or both lol
 
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Assuming this doesn't escalate much further everyone is going to remember no one gives a ---- about eastern Ukraine by about 2:30 tomorrow. I'll be buying calls.
 
Broken024 said:
Assuming this doesn't escalate much further everyone is going to remember no one gives a ---- about eastern Ukraine by about 2:30 tomorrow. I'll be buying calls.
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Please give me a good call entry. I feel like everyone is expecting 420 to break for SPY tomorrow so I’ll be eyeing an entry above there for a good call scalp. Fade me please ??
 
KyloG said:
Uh…so now rate hikes are iffy. ?‍♂️

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I think rate hikes might get delayed if Russia launches a full scale invasion. The market will panic. Then again, an invasion will also likely push prices even higher and worsen inflation, so who knows. We are screwed in several ways in that event.
 
I feel like a hike is still likely in March unless you see worse than what I've described to be honest. Like if we dump hard to lower than 3500, then maybe not (and frankly that can't be ruled out entirely, but that's still not my base case).

But at this moment, I'd say it's 50/50 that TNX is back at 1.5-1.6% when Powell is at the podium in a few weeks, and that's very unhelpful if you want to tighten financial conditions. As it goes down, the chances of a hike are going to lower, but one is coming unless what I said above happens imo.

The thing that should be noted here as well is that pretty much all of the initial hikes are bear traps. It's the hike that's later that breaks something.
 
If I were trading (which I actually might try here), I'd look for 4250 to be a low (SPX not ES).

If it's not, then I don't think we double bottom, and we probably have a big down week like the week starting on January 18th. We're not dropping 5-7% in one day, but another -5% + week could end up happening.
 
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